Hand vs. Allen Cunningham at Borgata Poker Open

[DVO]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you have any idea how much strength this line shows? Raise PF, bet flop, bet turn, push river.

[/ QUOTE ]

It sounds strong but on this particular board it makes very little sense. From Allen's perspective (unless he knows you're capable of thin value bets which most people aren't) your line is basically set or three barrel bluff. You're checking behing most one pair hands here and it's pretty hard for you to have two pair (given pf and since you might check behind those as well). Sets are also semi-unlikely since you'd often limp along with small pairs as opposed to raising pf. I don't know, if I were in his spot and got there with 88 or something, I'd be calling a river shove pretty often. He knows his hand is pretty well defined and so he knows you can bluff shove because he "can't call" with those hands. I think against crappy players betting small might be better, but in this spot shoving is much, much better.

Steve

P.S. I think there's some contradiction in my post since I'm assuming he thinks you're capable of three barrelling but not thin value bets. I think this is true of a ton of good but not great players.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting how a good player, by using pot control on the turn by checking behind with AA, has given away that he doesn't have AA by betting the turn ( as Kramer did ). Not quibbling with the analysis, and Papa's caveat at the end is noted. But the logical conclusion of it is: Power betting every street with AA will often get AC's stack when AC is holding 88....if AC thinks thinks Kramer is great.

I need to get good enough to where I stack off with 88 here and it's viewed as a rational play..anyway my $.02 is that I can not think of a single hand AC has that plays every street this way. Baffled. Best guess is 33 or 44.

[yellowdoyle]

So if AC had 19k to start, he has already called 1400+1800+4200 = 7400, leaving him 11.5ish behind, which is < PSB.

I think AC has c/c'd on 2 streets which indicates some strength. The third check on the river though makes me think that Hero is ahead. I would bet about 8k or so, or just shove I suppose, but either way a large bet. I don't think AC checks on river with something ahead of us.

Kramer, for flop bet I make it a bit larger as well. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you have any idea how much strength this line shows? Raise PF, bet flop, bet turn, push river.

[/ QUOTE ]

It sounds strong but on this particular board it makes very little sense. From Allen's perspective (unless he knows you're capable of thin value bets which most people aren't) your line is basically set or three barrel bluff. You're checking behing most one pair hands here and it's pretty hard for you to have two pair (given pf and since you might check behind those as well). Sets are also semi-unlikely since you'd often limp along with small pairs as opposed to raising pf. I don't know, if I were in his spot and got there with 88 or something, I'd be calling a river shove pretty often. He knows his hand is pretty well defined and so he knows you can bluff shove because he "can't call" with those hands. I think against crappy players betting small might be better, but in this spot shoving is much, much better.

Steve

P.S. I think there's some contradiction in my post since I'm assuming he thinks you're capable of three barrelling but not thin value bets. I think this is true of a ton of good but not great players.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting how a good player, by using pot control on the turn by checking behind with AA, has given away that he doesn't have AA by betting the turn ( as Kramer did ). Not quibbling with the analysis, and Papa's caveat at the end is noted. But the logical conclusion of it is: Power betting every street with AA will often get AC's stack when AC is holding 88....if AC thinks thinks Kramer is great.

I need to get good enough to where I stack off with 88 here and it's viewed as a rational play..anyway my $.02 is that I can not think of a single hand AC has that plays every street this way. Baffled. Best guess is 33 or 44.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeh, I am not crazy about half potting the flop. It looks like either a weak cbet or a big pair or set. AC won't put you on 2-pair or a straight. So when you bet strongly on the turn, it looks like a big hand or a bluff. Plus you have a strong but vulnerable hand on the flop. I don't mind taking it down too much.

[Augie]

registrar/stevepa,

Do you really think AC got to the river this way with 88/99? If he did, I don't think I like his play very much in this hand.

For the sake of discussion, let's assume AC has 88/99.

So he limps, then calls a PF raise with his medium pair. Reasonable.

The flop comes all low cards. What would your plan be for 88/99 and a low board? Anyway, he check/calls a smallish 1800 bet. Not unreasonable, I suppose, but I think AC can do better here.

He could have put out a probe bet. Or could have CR the flop (I don't like that line in this spot, but it's an option). I think a decent flop bet into the PF raiser is usually the best play in these spots. The board is about the best you can hope for with 88/99, without flopping a set. If you get raised, your AC, you now have more information, and reevaluate.

Now the turn comes a T. Not a bad card by any means for 88/99. So you check/call a bet of 4200? I understand the WA/WB arguments in these situations, but that is exactly why you need to do something earlier in the hand to find out where the hell you stand.

With the pot beginning to bloat, isn't a call on the turn sort of committing yourself to seriously calling any river card? And if the river is a J/Q/K/A, do you just check/fold? Why not stick in a raise on the flop, or bet into the PF raiser on the turn . . . some other line that can help define Kramer's hand for you.

If AC does have 88/99, and feels he is in a WA/WB spot, do you really think he will check/call all streets and hope Kramer is bluffing on all streets?

Check/call, check/call, and planning to do the same on the river? I don't get it.

Perhaps I'm not seeing something you guys are. I would be interested to know your thoughts. At this time, though, I just don't see AC having 88/99.

Be good,

Augie

[registrar]

Jesus man. You've persuaded me once already.

OK, my take on all streets is this.

We make a fat reraise pre-flop at least repping a big hand, even if we don't necessarily get credit for one.

We then bet smallish on the flop and then bet big on the turn. From his perspectiive, WTF are we playing like this?

(Me, I'd have checked the turn because I can't see him calling a second bet on that board. I can see him making a move on it. I can see him folding. I don't know what the turn call means at all)

Basically, by the river, he really cannot put us on a hand and he checks. Perhaps he does this with a rivered straight if he really puts us on air but I really think he'd bet a set here. However, I do think he can get here with lots of pairs simply because it is extremely unlikely we flopped two pair or played a set this way. If he's got here, in that way, our shove is more consistent with our line as we would like him to percieve it than a small value bet.

Now Steve, who's actually won something of note, can tell you something else. But that's my line. I would check the turn, to induce a bet, because I don't see a hand behind calling and this is inconsistent with then betting the river. However, I also don't see many hands ahead calling on the turn and then checking the river.

It must be said that I agree/worry that all he has to think is that he's beating a big pair and, if he is, he's also very likely beating 34.

[Ansky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you have any idea how much strength this line shows? Raise PF, bet flop, bet turn, push river.

[/ QUOTE ]

It sounds strong but on this particular board it makes very little sense. From Allen's perspective (unless he knows you're capable of thin value bets which most people aren't) your line is basically set or three barrel bluff. You're checking behing most one pair hands here and it's pretty hard for you to have two pair (given pf and since you might check behind those as well). Sets are also semi-unlikely since you'd often limp along with small pairs as opposed to raising pf. I don't know, if I were in his spot and got there with 88 or something, I'd be calling a river shove pretty often. He knows his hand is pretty well defined and so he knows you can bluff shove because he "can't call" with those hands. I think against crappy players betting small might be better, but in this spot shoving is much, much better.

Steve

P.S. I think there's some contradiction in my post since I'm assuming he thinks you're capable of three barrelling but not thin value bets. I think this is true of a ton of good but not great players.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was gonna post something like this. Get out of my head.

Kramer,

43s is a ton worse than 98s. I realize you kno this, but I just mean that preflop certainly is not standard cause you have a "suited connector."

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but we don't have 89s here. We have 34s. Just because another hand is "better" doesn't make this one "terrible" for this play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I realize this but my point is that its all nice to raise here w/ a suited connector but 43s is really bad.

[stevepa]

augie, betting/raising for information is way overrated, particularly against good players who don't just tell you what they have with their bets/raises. For example, leading the flop here in AC's spot does very little to define kramer's hand, since kramer should and will raise/float a ton.

The turn and river play basically just come down to how AC views Kramer (i.e. does he value bet thin? Does he like to check behind with one pair hands for pot control? Is he capable of 2 or 3 barrel bluffs? etc...) As for whether Cunningham will check call all 3 streets with 88/99, of course he will if he thinks that's the best play. Not being willing to call off all of your money with mediocre hands is a pretty big leak, particularly against people who only play big pots with big hands/bluffs (read: almost everyone). If you're playing someone like strassa, this hand becomes much more difficult, because from what I've heard/seen he's very capable of very thin value bets. So now you can't call as light on the river because his range is a lot more than monster/nothing.

Steve

[DVO]

Kramer,

I think we're ready for the result....

[ QUOTE ]
Kramer,

I think we're ready for the result....

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, I'll post as soon as Assani Fisher gets to his results. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[SinPies]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Kramer,

I think we're ready for the result....

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, I'll post as soon as Assani Fisher gets to his results. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh man.