anyone get away from second set in massive pot HU?

[BigBiceps]

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25-50 HU today. Effective stacks 25K. I raise button to 150 with red nines. Good aggressive opponent reraises to 450. I call. Flop A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. He leads for 600. I call. Turn is 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. He leads for 1600. I reraise to 4200. He reraises to 14000. He has about 10K left behind. Does anyone consider folding?

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I don't play High stakes, and I don't play this deep, but I have played alot of heads-up.

How often is he 3-betting you OOP? What range do you put him on for this 3-bet? Have you seen him call from the BB with hands like 88 and JTs? Will he make moves similar to this on the turn with air?

You need to answer these questions and others like these before you can answer whether to put all your money in or fold here.

For 200BB this is probably never a fold, and is never a fold I will make.

However, very often this is going to be AA, so for 500BB this might have to be a fold, depending on the answers to the questions above.

[innerpeace]

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The question is how much can you fold for. Perhaps 500 bb's is not enough - but there is some amount ...

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samo, i assume that you mean how deep you would have to be to fold to a push on the turn.

on the one hand, you can treat this is a math problem - assigning a probability to each holding in his range that matters; e.g., non bluff hands that beat you, non bluff hands that you beat, semi bluffs, and air.

on the other hand, the probabilities depend on a variety of factors that you would best be able to judge, especially since this is heads up. one of the most important is how likely you think he is to make this play with air.

what makes this tricky is that the probability itself might be a function of how deep you are. there are some people - i.e., the action-junkie types - who are more apt to bluff in huge pot situations like this. more conservative players might bluff small pots, but usually have the goods in a big pot. against the latter i would have to be less deep in order to fold, against the former more deep.

[El Diablo]

samo,

Do you think opp is bankrolled to comfortably play at these stakes? If so, you can't fold.

[Dan BRIGHT]

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Samo, im pretty sure fish is advising raising the flop instead of the turn because it looks weaker, not because hes worried about protecting our hand.

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Ya no doubt, vs handreaders they are like "lol you are fos"

[Roba1111]

IMO AA is the most likely hand he has here, but i can also see him doing it with JsTs, As8s and 88. So id just close my eyes and push.

[Get_better_Baris]

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Samo, im pretty sure fish is advising raising the flop instead of the turn because it looks weaker, not because hes worried about protecting our hand.

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Ya no doubt, vs handreaders they are like "lol you are fos"

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no because they r soo deep in order to stack his 500 bb's [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img], he needs to bloat the pot on the flop

[fish2plus2]

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How often do you guys cold call w/ AA here preflop? If never, than I guess he is allowed to bluff you out on the turn here indefinitely.

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This is the best post of the thread I'd say (and given this thread that aint no merit really); given that an AA preflop call is very unlikely, and if someone is actually considering folding 99 here seriously, then playing JTss like this is obviously very good.

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Doesn't matter if he can, matters only if he will.

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He is sitting w/ 500bbs isnt he? Sam hasnt told us the opponents name, but knowing Sam, he will probably come back and say "It was Mahatma, has anyone ever heard of him?"

And, fwiw, Sam's raise on the turn basically requires that his opponent calls him down with marginal hands, while never bluffing worse hands. So his line requires his opponent to exhibit characteristics which are not common under HU players at $25/50 NL who do not leave the table after they have 500bb's.

Sam said that his opponent "will call w/ AK and 98o for pot control". What Sam fails to realize is that good players will turn AK and 98o into a bluff here before they will start calling down with them, unless of course you have a crazy aggro image, inwhich case you can also count on them bluffing here with a wide range of hand expecting you to be weak.

I dont have any problem with floating the flop, but I would normally do this so I could create more action on the turn like you are getting here, not so that I could fold it after I under-repesented it. Again, your line requires that your opponent calls off big w/ marginal hands, while never bluffing.

He is risking $12,400 to win $7,900.

If you are going to fold second set here everytime he puts $3 in the middle to win $2 you are going to have a really rough time.

[Dan BRIGHT]

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Samo, im pretty sure fish is advising raising the flop instead of the turn because it looks weaker, not because hes worried about protecting our hand.

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Ya no doubt, vs handreaders they are like "lol you are fos"

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no because they r soo deep in order to stack his 500 bb's [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img], he needs to bloat the pot on the flop

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dude it can be both u know

[Shady Poker]

I think there is something missing from this discussion that no one has gone into depth with. El Diablo mentioned it and he is correct. Depending on your roll and how many buy-ins you have for this game will dictate your play in this decision.

With that said you are ridiculously deep for the blind level you are playing and this may take you away from being properly rolled even though you may have 20+ buy ins for a standard 5k buy in.

You have 5 times that amount for which means that you should have 20+ buy ins of 25k.

If you do, which El Diablo questioned you on, then this must be a push in this spot. You mentioned that this player is an aggressive player in your opening and unless he's the king of all nits you cannot fold this hand because even though this does smell like aces, you have no choice to go broke to aces here...going broke to aces here is standard since as everyone discussed he could have 88, 78s, JTs or possibly even 33...

Think about it this way, if you had 2500 each and the blinds were 2-5 would you even think twice about folding this? Probably not...and if you are properly rolled for this game then it should make no difference in your play.

Edit: Re-read Diablo's post and realized I took the wrong interpretation. Please disregard that part of my post yet the rest is still relevant.

[Rekrul]

sam, don't kid yourself

this is a push