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#101
10-15-2006, 09:34 PM
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Re: Fantastic Lies you\'ve heard from live players.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I had a guy in Binion's tell me that 8s were mathmatically more probably to come out than any other card. He even showed me his tattoo of crazy 8s to prove it.... [/ QUOTE ] Well, when you consider that the chances of a flop/turn/river happening in a given hand is a function, if a very weak one, of the cards dealt to the players, it is true that certain cards have a higher chance of appearing on the board. Of course, there is no strategic value in trying to account for this, but it COULD be true about the 8s. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] 
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#102
10-15-2006, 09:35 PM
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Re: Fantastic Lies you\'ve heard from live players.
I recently heard a good one from a guy at a 2/5 nl table who had recently visited vegas. He claimed to buy into a 100/200 nl table with 10,000 and perform a hit and run on Phil Helmuth cashing out with 28,000. Yeah buddy you bought into an uncapped 100/200 game with 50bb and then proceeded to outplay the all mighty PH great story. Of course the douchebag proceeded to run 250 up to 3000 in about 3-4 hours on the hottest run of cards ever.
Michael
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#103
10-15-2006, 10:58 PM
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Re: Fantastic Lies you\'ve heard from live players.
[ QUOTE ]
I recently heard a good one from a guy at a 2/5 nl table who had recently visited vegas. He claimed to buy into a 100/200 nl table with 10,000 and perform a hit and run on Phil Helmuth cashing out with 28,000. Yeah buddy you bought into an uncapped 100/200 game with 50bb and then proceeded to outplay the all mighty PH great story. [/ QUOTE ] There's nothing at all unbelievable about that. Lots of people have been known to sit down shortstacked into big NL games just to have a shot at playing with well known pros. Sometimes it works out for them, sometimes not. I did see Phil playing chinese poker for large stakes during the WSOP--I presume he also sat at NLHE sometime in there. It's kinda like the tale Matt Damon tells during Rounders of his one hand with Johnny Chan. He sat and played tight for 2 hours, then bluffed Chan in one hand and ran; notify the press! ...or not. I've also heard the opposite sorta story. Like: [ QUOTE ] My friend decided on his last day here to take his entire lifetime poker bankroll to Bellagio and sit in the NL25/50 game there. He just wanted to say he did it so he bought in for $8000 and was only going to play AA and KK. He ended up losing it all when his king's full ran into quads. [/ QUOTE ] That's quite believable, too.
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#105
10-16-2006, 07:55 AM
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Re: Fantastic Lies you\'ve heard from live players.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Well, when you consider that the chances of a flop/turn/river happening in a given hand is a function, if a very weak one, of the cards dealt to the players... [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Bav, he's not crazy, but as he says it's a very weak effect and not worth getting worked up about. Imagine a heads-up game in which player A always raises preflop, with any two cards, and player B only calls if he has two aces. Well, in that game we're not going to see a flop, turn, or river unless player B had two aces. Therefore the probability of any one board card being an ace is lower than the probability of it being an 8 or a 2 (for example). Does that make sense?
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#106
10-16-2006, 09:04 AM
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Re: Fantastic Lies you\'ve heard from live players.
[ QUOTE ]
Does that make sense? [/ QUOTE ] It does. Never seen that effect applied to predict that eights will be more likely, but rather that if it's folded around to you in late position the probability of your opponents holding big cards is slightly higher. Be interesting to run stats on a few million electronic hands and see if there is a measurable difference (no doubt someone has already done this). If a card is gonna be more common, I wouldn't expect it to be eights, though. Sixes or smaller makes more sense.
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#108
10-16-2006, 01:44 PM
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Re: Fantastic Lies you\'ve heard from live players.
[ QUOTE ]
I had a guy in Binion's tell me that 8s were mathmatically more probably to come out than any other card. He even showed me his tattoo of crazy 8s to prove it.... [/ QUOTE ] That's true, if the deck has 5 8's.
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#109
10-16-2006, 01:58 PM
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Re: Fantastic Lies you\'ve heard from live players.
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I used to play alot of 6/12 about 2 years ago but since then I have moved to 30/60 this one guy I used play the 6/12 with always comes up to me to tell me how much he is up for the month online its always 20k-40k for the month. I ask him to jump in the 30/60 and he says no I play live for fun and goes back to the 6/12 which is funny he only plays live for fun where he puts in like 50hr a week live. [/ QUOTE ] Is your period key broken?
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#110
10-16-2006, 02:30 PM
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Re: Fantastic Lies you\'ve heard from live players.
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Was once at this cardroom id never been to before but was filled with alot of hilly billy from the old ranch types, but anyway. One clown who was there donating money and getting wasted kept going on and on about how he cant wait for his girlfriend to pick him up so he can go home and "wax dat ass". Told us all about how she had D cups and was really hot. 2 hours later she finally shows up to pick him up and the girl looks like she's only 16 years old, A cup, with a mediocore face. Sad part was the club owner told us after they left that it was his sister. They did look similar. [/ QUOTE ] The worst thing is that the part about go home and "wax dat ass" was probably true.
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