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#101
08-28-2006, 03:47 PM
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Re: Early UFC 62 & 63 Lines
Caldarooni,
I'm not following exactly. Watched whose fight in September? BJ Penn and Hughes fought in January 2004 at UFC 46, in which Penn choked out Hughes in the first round. It was Hughes' first loss since 2001, Hughes is something like 20-1 over that time period. Are you asking about Hughes / St. Pierre? GSP and Hughes fought in October 2004 @ UFC 50, where Hughes beat GSP with a first round armbar. Or are you talking about BJ Penn vs GSP in March of this year? In which GSP won a controversial decision over Penn? Short answer to your question either way: If you're asking about why he opened low against GSP: because GSP has looked really really impressive lately, and this line was mis-set, very much over valuing GSP. If you're asking about why he opened low against Penn once GSP bowed out: because Penn is the only one to beat Hughes and this line was mis-set. Either way, this line was off. Its why I posted on it above saying people should max Hughes because I knew the line would move much closer towards what I considered a true line of -200 and presenting tremendous arb opportunities. Hughes is currently -169 and we're still a month from the fight. 
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#102
08-28-2006, 03:52 PM
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Re: Early UFC 62 & 63 Lines
Perform,
I just made a mistake. I was talking about Hughes' last fight, labor day weekend where he fought Gracie. For some reason I had it in my head that he fought Penn.
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#104
08-28-2006, 04:11 PM
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Re: Early UFC 62 & 63 Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Memorial Day weekend dude. They fought in May. [/ QUOTE ] Ya, LOL. Welcome to my world as a professional poker player.
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#105
08-28-2006, 05:51 PM
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Re: Early UFC 62 & 63 Lines
Do you really think Hughes should be -200? I think Penn is a more skilled and talented fighter; the question is whether he'll be in shape. He would have beaten GSP if he hadn't gassed, and if he's motivated I think he's actually the favorite. Now, BJ usually isn't in great shape, so he should in reality be the dog - but I think -200 is a bit crazy.
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#106
08-28-2006, 06:44 PM
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Re: Early UFC 62 & 63 Lines
I think the line will end up at -200. Big difference from what I would handicap the true line to be.
The public's perception is that Hughes is an unstoppable juggernaught and BJ Penn they've seen one fight out of in three years and he looked very mediocre in two of the three rounds in that fight. So the public is going to be pouring money on Hughes (as they've already done, and will continue to do), and I recommended those interested in arbs get in on Hughes early, as I was (correctly) predicting the line move. My money will be on Penn for the fight - I moved max units on Hughes when it opened vs GSP and again when it reopened vs Penn. I'll then do a full hedge so that I'll win whatever if Penn wins and breakeven if Penn loses. Depending on the line move and the max move I may even place additional units on Penn based on the eventual landing place of the line.
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#107
08-28-2006, 06:55 PM
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Re: Early UFC 62 & 63 Lines
[ QUOTE ]
The public's perception is that Hughes is an unstoppable juggernaugt [/ QUOTE ]Why would you disagree with that perception? He has the entire toolset and he is strong as an ox. I think he is more dominant than Liddell. How do you see Penn beating him?
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#108
08-28-2006, 06:56 PM
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No real suprises...
2-1 on my picks. And the one I lost (put money on Bonnar), the fight went exactly how I thought it would.
The Chuck fight made me quite a bit of money. I think that's the second largest amount I've put on a UFC fight (Hughes vs. Gracie being the biggest). I was less suprised by the Diaz fight than other seem to be...although I was definately impressed. I've probably been one of the bigger Nick Diaz fans since UFC 47 when he beat Robbie Lawler, which happens to be one of my favorite fights ever. He looked great, and if he can ever get to the point where he submits guys like Sherk and Sanchez (which he has the talent to do, but hasn't done yet), he's going to be a title contender at some point. Really looking forward to the fight between Hughes and Penn. I think this should have been the matchup when Hughes fought Gracie (with Gracie matching up against GSP)...but I'm just glad it's happening. Penn is one of the few fighters in the world with the capability, and the talent to beat Hughes. He's tremendous at wrestling, striking, and submissions. The question is whether he will come in with the conditioning that he needs to beat Hughes (something he didn't come into the GSP fight with). And with the Anderson Silva vs. Franklyn fight coming up, I'm pumped. I think Anderson is the type of fighter that gives Franklyn nightmares. Good stuff coming up from the UFC.
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#109
08-28-2006, 07:39 PM
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Re: Early UFC 62 & 63 Lines
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The public's perception is that Hughes is an unstoppable juggernaugt [/ QUOTE ]Why would you disagree with that perception? He has the entire toolset and he is strong as an ox. I think he is more dominant than Liddell. How do you see Penn beating him? [/ QUOTE ] Well, I just said that's what the public thinks. What I'm really trying to convey is that many casual UFC bettors would lay money on Hughes here at -400. I would certainly say that Hughes is a very dominant fighter, for all the reasons you mention. IO'd go as far as to say that Matt Hughes is the most dominant fighter in the UFC currently. But he's certianly not unstoppable. No one is unstoppable, that's for sure. I'll post a more detailed writeup with my official picks later on, but Hughes has certainly proven he can be submitted. he's lost four fights, all to strong jiu-jitsu guys. And I will certianly say if anyone matches up with Matt Hughes well in his weight class, its a healthy BJ Penn: someone who can do it all: striking and grappling. I'm not sure what happened to Penn in the GSP fight: if he was injured or just gassed or what. Word on the street was that he was injured. But regardless. maybe Hughes dominates this fight, maybe he doesn't. I haven't finished full capping for it, I won't for a couple weeks. I'm not yet taking a formal position. But what I can do is look at the line when it opened at Hughes -105 and go "Jeesus, the poor bastard who hung that line is going to get canned". And call everyone I know who depends on me for MMA betting and tell them to lay the max on Hughes at -105 because its going to end up closer to -200. And here we are a week later and Pinny is hanging Hughes -169 allowing a better than 50c arb for people who got in early. And I still expect to see Hughes -200 before the late money comes in on Penn - now whether that's sharp money or arb money or a little of both, we'll have to see. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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