**American Idol Finals: Music of Queen - Page 11

Jesse Kidd · #**101** 04-12-2006, 04:09 PM

Personally, I'd be selling Katharine at this point. She's close to her ceiling, and if she is in the bottom 3 tonight (probably about 50/50), she could really plummet.

As to Kellie, I think the poster is right, she doesn't have more than a 12-13% chance of winning. However, she isn't close to being in the bottom three, and you can likely squeeze some more money out of her by selling in 3-4 weeks.

Short-term trading is dead (I was impressed any of you guys could do it with the huge spreads on WSEX), but there is probably still some value in certain 4-5 week holding periods.
Jesse

Jurollo · #**102** 04-12-2006, 04:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I dumped my Pickler yesterday. Bohemian Rhapsody was god-awful. More important than the individual song was the bad hair, weird clothes, mediocre voice, and lack of charisma. There's just no way that there's a 12% chance Picker wins the whole thing.

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It doesnt matter if she has a 12% chance of winning it. You are fundamentally misunderstanding the market. She doesnt need to win, just needs to go up in price and many things can drive that, namely other people getting KO'd and her keeping her fan base. As of right now I do not envision a scenario in which the final 3 is not Chris, Taylor and Kellie. Quote me on that, book it, bring it up if it doesnt happen, but that will likely be final 3. Keep in mind Pickler picks up Bucky's votes too, as there isnt anyone else who can left in the competition. I still think Taylor will then win it all as Kellie's votes naturally go to him after and Chris gets 2nd but still wins as he doesnt have to soften his image as the american idol. Taylor then attracts the older voters for next season and becomes a cheap man's Michael McDonald.
~Justin

TStoneMBD · #**103** 04-12-2006, 04:25 PM

there is some hidden value in taylor and kellie. if katherine gets voted off her voters are going to go to kellie. if kellie gets voted off her votes are going to go to taylor because they are both from the south. im not sure if taylor's voters will go to kellie because they are both in the south or not, but if so that gives her even more value.

revots33 · #**104** 04-12-2006, 05:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It doesnt matter if she has a 12% chance of winning it. You are fundamentally misunderstanding the market. She doesnt need to win, just needs to go up in price and many things can drive that, namely other people getting KO'd and her keeping her fan base. As of right now I do not envision a scenario in which the final 3 is not Chris, Taylor and Kellie.

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I think the question is how high you think Kellie's price will be assuming the final 3 are indeed her, Chris, and Taylor. I'm not entirely sure of the answer to that question myself, which is why I can't decide whether to sell my Kellie shares or not. I do not think she will make top 2, which means I'd most likely sell Kellie once she makes top 3. I'm thinking at that point she'll be about $17 sell price with Chris and Taylor the favorites.

I think the wildcard here is Chris. If he continues to suck and lose voters, it will obviously help Kellie and give her a realistic chance for the final 2.

AvivaSimplex · #**105** 04-12-2006, 05:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the question is how high you think Kellie's price will be assuming the final 3 are indeed her, Chris, and Taylor. I'm not entirely sure of the answer to that question myself, which is why I can't decide whether to sell my Kellie shares or not. I do not think she will make top 2, which means I'd most likely sell Kellie once she makes top 3. I'm thinking at that point she'll be about $17 sell price with Chris and Taylor the favorites.

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I agree--if that's the top three, I see her at best at 17/20. The line for "next eliminated" would be worse than 1:1 on Kellie for that show. I also think Kellie is not much better than 50/50 to outlast Kat, and there's a small chance Paris could outlast her.

If you already hold Kellie, and you keep her until the last 4, her price might go up. Personally I'm expecting more mediocre performances. If you're buying her now at 12 and hoping to sell at 17, that is definitely -EV.

[ QUOTE ]
I think the wildcard here is Chris. If he continues to suck and lose voters, it will obviously help Kellie and give her a realistic chance for the final 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since when has Chris started sucking? I was bored by his early songs, but he won me over with his performance on Kenny Rogers week.

OldYoda · #**106** 04-12-2006, 05:44 PM

I think that many people are making an unwarranted assumption that Taylor is a shoo in for top 3. His recent performances are indicative of why he has been stuck in the minor leagues of the music business for the last several years. He is essentially a one trick pony and without the gyrations and the antics is fairly mediocre. I look for him to go out 4th.

revots33 · #**107** 04-12-2006, 05:50 PM

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Since when has Chris started sucking? I was bored by his early songs, but he won me over with his performance on Kenny Rogers week.

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My opinion from the very beginning has been that Chris can never win this competition by screaming at the audience every week. It alienates a large segment of the Idol audience (esp. older viewers) who don't consider the screaming to be "real music". He's starting to bore people.

Jesse Kidd · #**108** 04-12-2006, 05:50 PM

Interested in making a bet on Taylor not making top 2 or 3?

AvivaSimplex · #**109** 04-12-2006, 06:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
My opinion from the very beginning has been that Chris can never win this competition by screaming at the audience every week. It alienates a large segment of the Idol audience (esp. older viewers) who don't consider the screaming to be "real music". He's starting to bore people.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly why I was so impressed with his non-screaming performance two weeks ago.

AvivaSimplex · #**110** 04-12-2006, 06:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think that many people are making an unwarranted assumption that Taylor is a shoo in for top 3. His recent performances are indicative of why he has been stuck in the minor leagues of the music business for the last several years. He is essentially a one trick pony and without the gyrations and the antics is fairly mediocre. I look for him to go out 4th.

[/ QUOTE ]
I personally don't like Taylor that much. He kind of weirds me out, honestly. Still, somebody really likes him, because he's been #1 on dialidol for the last 5 weeks. Even last week, when he put in one of the worst performances, he wasn't in the bottom three, and the producers didn't even try to hint that he would leave.

I think his good-natured cheesiness will put him in the top 2.