CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)

[MyTurn2Raise]

just a warning to all those following the Badgers

I've heard rumblings Hill is not looking too great following the punishment in Champaign. Swann is also doubtful. Wisky's backup RB cannot play road games. I think that explains why the Penn St line is higher than most of us think it should be.

[kdog]

So far I have:
Rutgers -16.5 2u
Va Tech -13 1u
Miami -2.5 1u
Tenn -7 1u
Ill -3 -125 1u
Utah -13.5 .5u

Games I'm interested in(feedback welcome)
Minn +7
Georgia -7
Baylor +25.5
Texas -16
Air Force +4
Missouri +10.5
Washington +12

[Austiger]

kdog- You're betting on one home team out of 13 games. Generally, that is not a good idea. (Although I do like many of those picks; Miami, Tenn, Ill, UGA, Baylor, Wash)

[cefis21]

[ QUOTE ]
So far I have:
Rutgers -16.5 2u
Va Tech -13 1u
Miami -2.5 1u
Tenn -7 1u
Ill -3 -125 1u
Utah -13.5 .5u

Games I'm interested in(feedback welcome)
Minn +7
Georgia -7
Baylor +25.5
Texas -16
Air Force +4
Missouri +10.5
Washington +12

[/ QUOTE ]


Dont take Minnesota, ever!! The worst defense in the world. When playing Minnesota take the overs.

[droopy0021]

[ QUOTE ]
just a warning to all those following the Badgers

I've heard rumblings Hill is not looking too great following the punishment in Champaign. Swann is out for remainder of the year with hamstring injury . Wisky's backup RB cannot play road games. I think that explains why the Penn St line is higher than most of us think it should be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just heard that this a.m.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
Wisky +6.5
Illini -2.5 both 1u

BC 3u -12
UK +10.5 1u
Ark -2.5 for 1u

[/ QUOTE ]

undoing Wisky at PSU -6.5/-105, payin' the vig.

[kdog]

[ QUOTE ]
kdog- You're betting on one home team out of 13 games. Generally, that is not a good idea. (Although I do like many of those picks; Miami, Tenn, Ill, UGA, Baylor, Wash

[/ QUOTE ]

You are right Austiger that is too many roadies. Notice that I have only bet 6 teams so far and 2 are at home(Miami and Utah)(and they're all chalk???). Of those other 7 I will probably bet no more than two(AF & Wash). I will also be on Notre Dame if the spread crosses 14. Barring any major moves that will be it for me except for tailing Reggie from The Fellas Forum's stronger picks when he finalizes his card. He's a LOT better than me with the mid majors. Check him out.

[iggymcfly]

Well, even though I said I wasn't going to bet any more games after last week, I've still kind of been eying the lines, and I may bet a couple games on a purely recreational basis.

My leans this week are:
Iowa +3.5
TCU -6
Kentucky +9
Notre Dame +13.5
OU/Mizz over 61

Out of those, Iowa +3.5's the one I like best, as it seems like everyone's piling on the Illini this week and they've been getting a lot of media attention for being "underrated" and underranked after their last two wins.

The fact that they're only a 3.5 point favorite against a team who's 0-3 in conference seems to reflect the sharps backing Iowa. Also, they're only favored by 2 according to Sagarin which while still bayesian is only lightly impacted by preseason rankings at this point of the season and is only impacted by them at all because Sagarin obviously has found including them at this point of the season makes the rankings more accurate. Also, Iowa had their best defensive game of the year against a Wisconsin team that also loves to run the ball much like Illinois.

Add in the obvious letdown factor with Illinois being a young team that's not used to success and could very easily overlook an 0-3 team on the road and I really think that Iowa should keep this close if not win outright. I may move money to a book with first half lines for this game as I think Iowa has a much better chance to outplay Illinois in the first half when the Illini don't really have their heads in the game than they do down the stretch if the Illini are trailing since Illinois is the more talented team.

[thelyingthief]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
just a warning to all those following the Badgers

I've heard rumblings Hill is not looking too great following the punishment in Champaign. Swann is out for remainder of the year with hamstring injury . Wisky's backup RB cannot play road games. I think that explains why the Penn St line is higher than most of us think it should be.

[/ QUOTE ]


Just heard that this a.m.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you're over-reacting: hill is listed as probable; although swann is out, jefferson has been in the rotation, and can catch the deep ball.

people are overestimating penn state's talent: they are, as they always are, SLOW. and i mean, SLOW. true, they play defense fairly well, but is that enough? wisconsin, but for turning the ball over twice in succession on the pass, dominated an illinois defense incapable of handling an air game (re: mizzou game against illinois, where missouri fell asleep after scoring at will; that game was not even close, except for the score)--and i'm not convinced penn st. can, either. penn has a solid set of line backers (as always), but while good line backing can function well enough against the Big Ten's run first and last mentality, wisconsin CAN throw, has the arsenal in place to throw, and WILL throw. the big ten still hasn't entered the modern era offensively, in which throwing is considered a viable aspect of the game. i think the badger's will have to resort to the air and are planning to do so.

also, wisconsin handled the illini's rushing attack fairly well, if one overlooks the first quarter, where the bulk of the rushing yards were forfeited, and the offense fielded by penn is much less dynamic and talented than illini's. i expect wisconsin's front to look much better here than in the illinois game.

all in all, i would say, wisconsin wins this match-up (did i mention, penn st. is SLOW?), in crappy-valley, AT LEAST 45% of the time. at +230 wisconsin is a great play.

tlt

[bills217]

[ QUOTE ]
Notre Dame +13.5

[/ QUOTE ]

*pukes*