i'm embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American Idol - Page 11

Angelus · #**101** 03-22-2006, 03:35 AM

What was with Paula's orgasm over Taylor's brutal performance? I hate her.

Anyway, I think Bucky or Lisa leaves tomorrow. Mandisa gained a lot of steam today...which isn't good for me because I have a lot of money (in various wagers) invested in her not doing well.

Also, a little secret for those of you who don't know, www.dialidol.com may help in your selections...

Angelus · #**102** 03-22-2006, 03:43 AM

Lisa's up to +1000 at pinny. Yamin is at +727, which I think is worth a shot based on the results of the link I posted above.

craig · #**103** 03-22-2006, 03:59 AM

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I'm no longer embarrassed. The public outcry of support has outweighed the jabs I've taken. And more than anything, it led to the comedy gold that Craig posted above, which was well worth the price of admission.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is my favorite thread. I have no idea who anybody is talking about, yet I read it everyday. I am glad you found what I said funny. I definitely had fun writing it. We are actually thinking of expanding our site with comedy (I can't give away more than that to insure nobody rips us off).

craig

smbruin22 · #**104** 03-22-2006, 02:07 PM

anybody have any thoughts on how accurate dialidol.com has been in past weeks?

it has elliott as most likely to go home this week, and you could make huge $$$$$ if that happens.... tradesports.com has bucky as odds-on favorite to go home, which makes more sense.

as i predicted (nice to be able to say it once), bucky has shot up and kevin has plummetted (on chance of going home tonight).

Performify · #**105** 03-22-2006, 02:23 PM

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anybody have any thoughts on how accurate dialidol.com has been in past weeks?

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First I've seen of it.

I think they're nuts. They claim a great success rate, but the only week they show tracked results for (that I can find with a little poking) is last week in which they were way off. They didn't have Melissa in the bottom three.

They also show Elliott as receiving the highest number of calls from their software this week. I don't know how that would correspond to getting kicked either. Their statistical analsysis seems pretty weak.

I called in for four people this week, probably close to ten times each, between 9:30pm CST and 11:30pm CST, and I don't think I got but one or two busy signals among ~40 calls.

I could certainly be wrong, but I can't see Elliott in the bottom three this week. His odds to get kicked this week have fallen dramatically on Pinny though, which means at least some significant money is moving on him.

WaimanaloSlim · #**106** 03-22-2006, 03:42 PM

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I called in for four people this week, probably close to ten times each, between 9:30pm CST and 11:30pm CST, and I don't think I got but one or two busy signals among ~40 calls.

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Oh my god, that's hilarious. I'm ROFLMAO.

Performify · #**107** 03-22-2006, 04:29 PM

[img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

happy to entertain if nothing else.

/shrug Every week I make it a point to vote ~ ten times for the top three that i've got the arbitrage setup around, as well as who i think is on the bubble who I don't want to go out (this week, Kevin). It has obviously an infinitesimal effect on the results but I'm certainly not going to pass up the opportunity to affect my own outcome even if its a miniscule effort.

Its not like I'm saying i sit there for four hours and do nothing but call. I make each call once from the cell phone and then its just redial from the calling menu over the course of the evening while I'm playing poker (or as last night, Ghost Recon on the 360).

I've said too much already...

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

llabb · #**108** 03-22-2006, 05:16 PM

Hello Performify and other AI bettors,

I looked at this thread after Performify x-posted in the zoo, and was interested by the wagering strategies here. Wagering on Pinny is a good idea, but I think you should also be heavily investing in the WSEX and TradeSports markets.

Lines are pretty close to Pinny, and even those that are slightly lower have better value IMO, because you can redeem some of your bet amounts after it becomes clear that someone you bet on will not win. For example, you could get back a portion (small, but better than nothing) of your money on Elliott, who has virtually no shot IMO. This redemption feature, if one is willing to take the loss but get some capital back, makes wagering on the eventual winner more +EV on a market-based book than a straight wager IMO.

Btw, Performify, I think your general thoughts have been pretty good, and I agree with the Chris, and to a lesser extent, Kat wagers. The top 4 IMO are Chris, Kellie, Taylor, and Kat. Best value right now is in Kellie.

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I believe Elliot demonstrated the value that I saw in him as an outside underdog with an excellent performance. With his futures line at +1499 I am evaluating a small "value add" there mixed in.

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I could certainly be wrong, but I can't see Elliott in the bottom three this week.

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But you are way overvaluing Elliott, and are throwing away money on him to win IMO. Better to put some of that towards Taylor and Kellie, and hedge against Elliott going early.

Elliott will indeed be in the Bottom 3 tonight IMO, even though I also think it should be Lisa, Kevin, and Bucky. But Elliott replaces one of them. Willing to put a small, friendly wager on that if anyone is interested.

Performify · #**109** 03-22-2006, 06:20 PM

llabb thanks for responding over here.

Future odds on Elliot certainly support the position that i've backed the wrong horse there.

I'm still not necessarily ready to abandon all hope, but I do ackowledge that if I were building an arbitrage from scratch today I would go another direction. But I also believe the value has been bet out of the Chris future and to a lesser extent Katharine, and would not setup the same three-runner arbitrage if I were starting from scratch today.

I'm on the other side of Kellie Pickler - i beleve there's approximately zero chance she makes the final three. I have her getting KOd around position six. I expect she'll be easily outlasted by Taylor, Mandisa, and Chris and Kat obviously. I believe its a toss-up between between Paris + Kellie at the following tier.

I still am surprised by the Elliot line swinging so heavily, and by the negative publicity I've seen on him. I may have underestimated his image, being swayed by positive image feedback on him from sources close to me and overvaluing his talent. I would not be surprised to see him in the bottom three tonight, however I do believe he still has an outside chance to rebound if he does, based on his talent level. We'll see.

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For the record: Bucky is currently at -139 on Pinny, I believe to still be a solid bet for elimination this week. The Lisa line is still +EV as well as I still estimate its 60% Bucky 35% Lisa to walk this week, with 5% Kevin.

llabb · #**110** 03-22-2006, 06:56 PM

I agree with you on this week's elimination. Posted this earlier today in the Zoo:

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Was able to get in on Bucky for a weighted avg around +100. He made some particularly huge moves, from +150 pre-show all the way up to -275 post-show, then settling back to -130 currently.

Also made some +EV wagers on Elliott and Lisa both around +800. Each were well above +1000 earlier in the week, and have fallen to +300 or worse currently. I will do well if any of them leave, and only get screwed if Kevin leaves, which I do not think happens this week.

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Regarding Kellie, she has been consistently promoted as part of the top 3 by Simon, who has pimped his view on Stern, Larry King, Leno, Extra, and other media outlets.

She is only 7-10 (+900) on WSEX and 6.3-6.9 (+1350) on TradeSports. I would not make a straight wager on her outright to win, but her value should be much higher than this. I am looking to double my money from her current levels, and have also made Pinny wagers around +230 for her to make the top 4.