Hand from Borgata WPT

[0evg0]

also yes pf is just wrong dont care what you say zj

[magithighs]

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..overvalues the importance of reads. He's competent and thinking, but would probably get killed in a typical online game.

The BB is a white guy in his mid 30's.... He doesn't seem rich, and probably satellited into this event. He has had a beer or two.......isn't a high stakes player. He has been tight, solid, straightforward, and not tricky at all. He bluffed once vs the old lady. ...terrible by any means, and is rather good compared to the typical east coast satellite player.

Can you?

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What the heck. Here goes. He didn't buy in directly and doesn't have experience with big money on the line. If he had made an honest mistake, you would be able to spot it right away -- same way you spotted the PF raise.

I saw this mistake at the 05 WSOP and the guy (sat winner) who threw in a 5k chip into a 800 pot on the flop was mortified as soon as the chip went in.

So, you would see a huge physical tell if he really made a mistake. And once the crazy armenian stares him down and he doesn't flinch, he's very strong.

Now the bet isn't that huge relative to your stack. You could be wrong in the assessment and I don't think I could lay down the set of 8's at the turn. So, I call.

On the river, I reassess based on the bet size and body language. His inexperience will come out in flying colours when the river hits and you should be able to tell with a high degree of certainty if he has AA or KK.

Cheers
Magi

[danzasmack]

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to people saying angle shoot-

almost no one is smart enough to angle shoot

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This is a weird angle shoot too if he actually displays indifference to his call vs. raise. Guess he has K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] then.

I feel like if it was an angle shoot he would actually seem upset about this whole scenario, maybe overdo it a bit ya know?

[Rocco]

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the key to this hand is that we have a set. So we need to get all the chips in.
obv

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Yeah, obv... Now it's coming clear! Both Alan and Thor had recently seen nath posting like a maniac here, so they simply responded - "Nizzles, son... Ship it!"

[ZeeJustin]

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also yes pf is just wrong dont care what you say zj

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Didn't want to raise a tricky utg limper who is capable of limp reraising with both big hands and air, and is unlikely to let me take down the pot postflop for a single bet. Building the pot against a laggro tricky player out of position with a hand that is unlikely to improve is generally not a good idea.

[KneeCo]

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I hope you catch an 8 on the river cause you have but 2outs.

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What's the second one? Also, the matter of factness with which ur state people's hands and stuff is silly.

This is an interesting hand, I actually think the discussion would have been a lot better if not for the "secret key" caveat though (maybe its just me though, cause I don't really know what a definitive solution to a poker hand means or looks like). Hopefully the secret lives up to the hype though.

I'm standing by fold, but out of curiosity is there anyone who takes the following line (aka who wants to do some math on a very weird line I'd never do in this spot but would like to discuss):

Calling the turn with the plan of
a) check/folding a brick to any substantial bet but hopefully getting to showdown free/cheap
b) bluffing any spade (except A/K), J or Q river?
c) hitting the case 8 (lolz)

That's 13 bluff outs where we'd be risking 4700 to win 8600 (how often do we think the bluff works? Even if it works 100% of the time, we're short on equity on these outs alone, plus if you figure AKs into his range that pretty much blows this plan to hell). Seems kind of odd to turn a set into a bluff draw, but wtf it's worth discussing. Can we ever/sometimes/always count on an experienced sat player sitting on AAA with 160 BBs behind to fold if the 4s hits? Js? Jd?

We also have 1 out to the nuts where, even OOP we'd be risking 4700 for a chance to win at least 18k prob 24.6 (donk shove the case 8 is the correct line, right?), and then the remote possibility that the river goes check/check or he only bets like 3k or something (I can't imagine he's ever folding a set in that spot, but might muck AK, so consider that).

[ZeeJustin]

Major Hint: People are focusing too much on what this hand is, and not enough on what this hand is not.

[NYWalker]

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I LOVE the fact that there is no consensus yet on the right answer.

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This treasure hunt has become a "mental torture". I'm spending more time reading it than reading my career PMO.

[hamsamich]

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I hope you catch an 8 on the river cause you have but 2outs.

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What's the second one?


I'm glad someone with a much higher post count than me said this..lol

After thinking this over and reading some of the responses I am on the fold side here as well. I cannot see the BB doing this with any hand that we beat and personally I am putting him on TT as played.

I think the raise/call was an honest mistake.

[Pudge714]

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Remember, it requires deduction. It's not just simply picking out one of the sentences I wrote and putting all your stock into it.

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Professor Plum with the rusty spoon. ship the money son!

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