my friend and i are arguing: $22 180 person 17 remaining players

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Let's assume that 1)we have maybe 10% FE, but 2)shoving 85o is worth 100 chips.

[/ QUOTE ] If you're going to get called 90% of the time, then shoving 85o with 4 hands to go before the blinds hit you is just silly, even if it is +EV (is that possible?). I don't think that's the situation here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, the hypo is wrong. Like I said, you can play around with the exact number of chips/FE where it's barely +cEV to shove 85o - whether you have 1 more SB or not isn't that important.

The point is that shoving this type of hand, where you gain a small fraction of a BB in EV but are pretty likely to have to show the hand down, greatly affects your EV on future pushes.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
The point is that shoving this type of hand, where you gain a small fraction of a BB in EV but are pretty likely to have to show the hand down, greatly affects your EV on future pushes.

[/ QUOTE ] I agree with that. If you are going to get called more than, say, 50% of the time, probably best to sit tight and wait for a better hand or call all-in on the BB. I think this hand is one where you just sit tight and pray.

[sledghammer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Let's assume that 1)we have maybe 10% FE, but 2)shoving 85o is worth 100 chips.

[/ QUOTE ] If you're going to get called 90% of the time, then shoving 85o with 4 hands to go before the blinds hit you is just silly, even if it is +EV (is that possible?). I don't think that's the situation here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, the hypo is wrong. Like I said, you can play around with the exact number of chips/FE where it's barely +cEV to shove 85o - whether you have 1 more SB or not isn't that important.

The point is that shoving this type of hand, where you gain a small fraction of a BB in EV but are pretty likely to have to show the hand down, greatly affects your EV on future pushes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Showing the hand down negatively affects the EV of our future pushes. If our hand is not shown down, how does that affect the EV of future pushes? Does the added FE for future pushes with an m of 3 vs. 2 possibly make it worth the risk? I don't have SNGPT on this computer, or I might try and run some analysis, but it is something to consider.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Showing the hand down negatively affects the EV of our future pushes. If our hand is not shown down, how does that affect the EV of future pushes? Does the added FE for future pushes with an m of 3 vs. 2 possibly make it worth the risk? I don't have SNGPT on this computer, or I might try and run some analysis, but it is something to consider.

[/ QUOTE ]

It affects it a little (shoving 2-3 times in a row is worse than once), but not enough to matter for future decisions except with borderline hands (i.e., you are better off not shoving 98s UTG.) Here, it doesn't matter much because your FE is minimal.

[JokerArmy]

Wow this thread really has blown up...The more I think about this hand the more I feel that if this hand was pushed, called, shown-down, and won I believe from a metagame POV it should do wonders for our image for the next push (assuming it's not 85o and something more like AQ+,99+) since the calling range for the table should widen considerably, especially for the player who called the hand and lost.

Or would the converse be more true...Or does it really matter in this spot?

- JA

[curtains]

Despite all the arguments to the contrary, I stand by my statement that if you know pushing is +EV for this hand, its ridiculous to fold. Let me give some reasons:

1. You have under 4x the BB
2. You are not very likely to have another solid +EV situation in the next few hands, especially as you will have one more opponent to get through each successive hand. What is most often the case in such a situation is that you are forced to choose between -EV situations and decide which one is less -EV.
3. I think it's extremely silly to worry about your image with under 4x the BB. If you somehow double up, its worth so much to you. Even winning the blinds is worth a ton.

I dunno, I find the argument that it's good to fold even if you know the play is +EV, while you are sitting here with under 4x the BB and about to hit the BB in a few hands, to be laughable.

Also as an aside, I think that everyone is grossly underestimating our folding equity. There is no way in hell we are looked up over 90% of the time. Anyone who thinks that (seems to be a lot of people), I firmly believe, has a pretty poor understanding and feel for this exact situation.

If that was really the case, I wouldn't remember stealing successfully in nearly this precise situation (although perhaps with stronger hands), many many times. There is just no way in hell that on average we are called here 90%+ of the time against a random field of $22 players.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
1. You have under 4x the BB
2. You are not very likely to have another solid +EV situation in the next few hands, especially as you will have one more opponent to get through each successive hand. What is most often the case in such a situation is that you are forced to choose between -EV situations and decide which one is less -EV.
3. I think it's extremely silly to worry about your image with under 4x the BB. If you somehow double up, its worth so much to you. Even winning the blinds is worth a ton.

[/ QUOTE ]

curtains,

Since shoving is (in my fake example) worth exactly 100 chips, all you have to know is whether the cost to your image when you get called and suck out is worth exactly 101 chips or higher with 600/1200 blinds.

[sledghammer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1. You have under 4x the BB
2. You are not very likely to have another solid +EV situation in the next few hands, especially as you will have one more opponent to get through each successive hand. What is most often the case in such a situation is that you are forced to choose between -EV situations and decide which one is less -EV.
3. I think it's extremely silly to worry about your image with under 4x the BB. If you somehow double up, its worth so much to you. Even winning the blinds is worth a ton.

[/ QUOTE ]

curtains,

Since shoving is (in my fake example) worth exactly 100 chips, all you have to know is whether the cost to your image when you get called and suck out is worth exactly 101 chips or higher with 600/1200 blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

When you are called and suck out (rare, <20%), you get a lot more than 100 chips. Also, having an m of 4-5 versus 2 gives you the opportunity for EV pushes/gambles with far greater than 100 chip +EV, even with image considerations.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1. You have under 4x the BB
2. You are not very likely to have another solid +EV situation in the next few hands, especially as you will have one more opponent to get through each successive hand. What is most often the case in such a situation is that you are forced to choose between -EV situations and decide which one is less -EV.
3. I think it's extremely silly to worry about your image with under 4x the BB. If you somehow double up, its worth so much to you. Even winning the blinds is worth a ton.

[/ QUOTE ]

curtains,

Since shoving is (in my fake example) worth exactly 100 chips, all you have to know is whether the cost to your image when you get called and suck out is worth exactly 101 chips or higher with 600/1200 blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]


Don't believe this is true, especially as some of the EV comes from times you steal the blinds without showing.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
When you are called and suck out (rare, <20%), you get a lot more than 100 chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

that would be part of cEV