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#1041
06-22-2006, 08:39 PM
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Re: Belgariad game thread
[ QUOTE ]
11s,Pudley, Jonsan-- Why hasnt Brill killed Traz? [/ QUOTE ] I'm guessing he's doing something with his family right now. Even assassins have this important need in life. However, from a strategic point of view, I was hoping to delay things from moving too fast in case not all of my fellow Gromlins have read the thread. If you don't vote from us, I doubt (hope) they will not cast their votes and reveal themselves. Then again, I guess time isn't really that important in this game. Quite honestly, I don't have an answer. 
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#1042
06-22-2006, 08:44 PM
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Re: Belgariad game thread
lol@doing something with family
he has been here numerous times today and thus had plenty of opportunity to assassinate traz there is some other reason they are waiting for mdoran to vote before assassinating traz
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#1043
06-22-2006, 08:46 PM
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Re: Belgariad game thread
mdoran,
the correct play is prolly to vote traz now and then at 10:59:55 seconds change back that way, all the bad guys come out and then we can win
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#1045
06-22-2006, 08:46 PM
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Re: Belgariad game thread
way to quote half my post
like i said; he has been here plenty of times to assassinate traz and he decided not to yet what is that reason? hmmm
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#1046
06-22-2006, 08:48 PM
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Re: Belgariad game thread
[ QUOTE ]
if u really were errand, they woulda already assassinated traz [/ QUOTE ] The problem I'm having is that if he were a villager rather than the real errand they'd have assassinated traz even faster. If MDD bought into being errand and acting for evil then they'd have got their win - and if not then they've just set up an innocent villager for a certain lynching. To me the only sensible reason for them not to put pressure on MDD by killing Traz (which guarantees MDD can't survive if the village wins) is if they don't need to: and the only way they wouldn't need to was if MDD was already a bad guy and the whole errand thing were a farce. Why would they try that rather than the straight-forward)ish) approach they claim to be taking? Here's my rough logic on it: 1. As I've already explained there's NO advantage to them in identifying the real errand. Thier best bet is to name the non-errand villager they believe is most likely to vote with them. That then leaves them the real errand as a fall-back situation. 2. Given 1. Any villager they name as errand knows he's VERY unlikely to be errand. 3. Given 2. No villager is likely to go along with their plan but may well pretend to, to get the remaining villains to expose themselves. 4. Given 3, the remaining villains won't want to expose themselves. 5. Given the above the plan as CLAIMED in the thread just ain't gonna work - as the bad guys are claiming they're going to all out themselves in the hopes that a (probably fake) errand doesn't backstab them. Why would they do that? When instead they have the option to set one of their own up with cover as errand? Where this falls apart, of course, is if my original interpretation of the rules is correct - and soon as Traz dies village can only win with errand dead - in which case we HAVE to lynch errand to win - and MDD becomes likely toast in a day or two. Of course then there's the next level of thinking which is that given that, we won't lynch MDD - as we'd assume he's a normal villager named as errand precisely to try to get us to waste a day's lynching on him: and hence they CAN slot one of theirs in place as a fake errand. Giving MDD the beenfit of the doubt as not being a bad guy for the purpose of discussion, here's the question he needs to consider: WHY would they name the real errand rather than a fake one? I can only see disadvantages for them in doing that.
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#1047
06-22-2006, 08:48 PM
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Re: Belgariad game thread
Brill will kill Traz tonight. We have really no other choice. We've outed Errand, Traz would then "see him" tonight, and we'd have Belgarion to deal with after that. What chance to we have to win after that?
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#1048
06-22-2006, 08:50 PM
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Re: Belgariad game thread
[ QUOTE ]
way to quote half my post like i said; he has been here plenty of times to assassinate traz and he decided not to yet what is that reason? hmmm [/ QUOTE ] You're really out-thinking yourself, now. Seriously. It's not that complicated.
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#1049
06-22-2006, 08:53 PM
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Re: Belgariad game thread
Guys, MDD is NOT a bad guy, unless there is something deeper than I can think going on here.
If MDD is a bad guy, the bad guys are going to come up short tonight if Brill kills traz: Bad guys will have 4 votes, we will have 10 (11 with Mandor), and the swings will make it 8-7. We will then have all of the bad guys identities. MDD was told he was a villager, the only question is whether he is Errand or not. Let's not piss off MDD, he's the our only hope.
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#1050
06-22-2006, 08:54 PM
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Re: Belgariad game thread
[ QUOTE ]
Giving MDD the beenfit of the doubt as not being a bad guy for the purpose of discussion, here's the question he needs to consider: WHY would they name the real errand rather than a fake one? I can only see disadvantages for them in doing that. [/ QUOTE ] In fairness I CAN see one reason why they'd name the real errand - and that's if they were too stupid to pick a fake one in advance. But all that 1 2 3 stuff looks far more like a staged attempt at spontaneity than a genuine case of "oops we never picked a fake errand so we'll have to all name the real one". Or even like some coded exchange where one of them signalled who their fake errand candidate was to be to the others by a pre-arranged method.
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