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#1041
11-08-2007, 07:11 PM
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Re: This is how you burninate a level:
CDL
sometimes i wonder - but i think when we run bad, we're not necessarily running as bad as we think. on the flip side, when we're winning (all your flips) and your 80/20s - we don't allcoate enough of those winnings to the fact that we should have 'lost' some of that. So when 88 rivers a 8 to beat my AA... during the bad stretch, we complain about running bad...and wonder whether we can make money or not, but we never consider the fact that when our AA holds up against a donk calling 88 all in preflop...that they would win 20% of the time. what i'm saying is... maybe attribute your recent 'drought' less to running bad... and focus on how you can play better? hhaha - i know i'm going to get ridiculed here for being a 100 NL newbie posting a comment like this... but i think that is one thing that separates the great from the good. (P.S. i am ABSOLUTELY TERRIBLE... and need to learn how to improve...and hence why i am here) |
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#1042
11-08-2007, 07:12 PM
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Re: This is how you burninate a level:
It's possible if you could iso and pound the snot out of folding stations.
But like, sometimes you're just not gonna win. Just like sometimes you double up a shortstck because you go lol20bbs and he ends up with a 350 bb stack and doubles up through you along the way. |
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#1043
11-08-2007, 07:28 PM
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Re: This is how you burninate a level:
[ QUOTE ]
Serious question. Is it possible to win money when you run bad for extended periods? I'm not talking about AI EV calcs. I'm really thinking that it doesn't matter how good you are. I'm running like [censored] right now and really don't think there is a single person that could run this bad and make money or even breakeven. Serious thoughts please. [/ QUOTE ] Personally I don't believe an actually strong (i.e. not marginal) winning player can lose over 100k hands due solely to variance. |
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#1044
11-08-2007, 07:37 PM
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Re: This is how you burninate a level:
i think it's a strong statement that I'm playing well when all the regulars are calling me 'donk' and 'idiot' in chat
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#1045
11-08-2007, 07:39 PM
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Re: This is how you burninate a level:
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Serious question. Is it possible to win money when you run bad for extended periods? I'm not talking about AI EV calcs. I'm really thinking that it doesn't matter how good you are. I'm running like [censored] right now and really don't think there is a single person that could run this bad and make money or even breakeven. Serious thoughts please. [/ QUOTE ] Personally I don't believe an actually strong (i.e. not marginal) winning player can lose over 100k hands due solely to variance. [/ QUOTE ] What if the variance was extended (say take the worst 5k stretch in terms of variance you've ever had and repeat that 20x consecutively)? Then could you lose. I'm not on any type of run like that. Mine is probably about 15k cash hands (and I'm not a great player by any means) and then probably 30 donkaments which considering the places I took my beats (no one could have avoided them and many were right near the bubble) there is no chance I profit in those, but that is extremely short term for donkamnets. I know that variance is worse than you could ever imagine, etc. etc. and this run isn't near as bad as it could me. I've personally been in worse before so I do know that. Is it really ridiculous to believe that there is just no way for you to make money over a period of time? Think shorter run, because if it can happen for 1k hands it can happen for 100k straight hands (its just far far less likely). Fun beat I took while typing this. PokerStars Game #13121182780: Tournament #66582482, $11+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level X (400/800) - 2007/11/08 - 18:28:19 (ET) Table '66582482 18' 9-max Seat #8 is the button Seat 1: SKOLS (6265 in chips) Seat 2: chips4410 (4250 in chips) Seat 3: hercules777 (7280 in chips) Seat 4: jojo2914 (4780 in chips) Seat 5: KAPPY23 (467 in chips) Seat 6: BlueDevils09 (13090 in chips) Seat 8: DESS66 (26076 in chips) SKOLS: posts the ante 75 chips4410: posts the ante 75 hercules777: posts the ante 75 jojo2914: posts the ante 75 KAPPY23: posts the ante 75 BlueDevils09: posts the ante 75 DESS66: posts the ante 75 SKOLS: posts small blind 400 chips4410: posts big blind 800 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to BlueDevils09 [Ah As] hercules777: folds jojo2914: raises 800 to 1600 KAPPY23: folds BlueDevils09: calls 1600 DESS66: folds SKOLS: folds chips4410: folds *** FLOP *** [Qd 7c 3s] jojo2914: bets 3105 and is all-in BlueDevils09: calls 3105 *** TURN *** [Qd 7c 3s] [6s] *** RIVER *** [Qd 7c 3s 6s] [5d] *** SHOW DOWN *** jojo2914: shows [Ac 4c] (a straight, Three to Seven) BlueDevils09: shows [Ah As] (a pair of Aces) jojo2914 collected 11135 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 11135 | Rake 0 Board [Qd 7c 3s 6s 5d] Seat 1: SKOLS (small blind) folded before Flop Seat 2: chips4410 (big blind) folded before Flop Seat 3: hercules777 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 4: jojo2914 showed [Ac 4c] and won (11135) with a straight, Three to Seven Seat 5: KAPPY23 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 6: BlueDevils09 showed [Ah As] and lost with a pair of Aces Seat 8: DESS66 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet) |
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#1046
11-08-2007, 07:44 PM
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Re: This is how you burninate a level:
Im sure that is true over a month CDL.
For what its worth I came second in a tourney for 10k, where first was 20k. Basically we were even on chips and I got AK << AQ. It still hurt a bit even 2 years later. I also had 2nd in the $1650 step to WSOP ME + Flight Hotel. 1st got the prize. Id worked it up from $10 step 1. I took the next day off work I was so brutalised (I think he was a better player tho). You'll come back - just take a few days off if you need. FWIW I feel the same - Im just running horribly in games I feel I have a reasonable edge in. When you see experienced winners like Main, Renton or Purdue posting losing months you see how it goes. Good luck - you play pretty solid. |
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#1047
11-08-2007, 07:45 PM
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Re: This is how you burninate a level:
Running amazing
Poker Stars, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players LeggoPoker Hand History Converter UTG: $456.90 UTG+1: $315.50 UTG+2: $459.30 MP1: $439.80 Hero (MP2): $388 CO: $560.50 BTN: $495 SB: $410.70 BB: $240 Pre-Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP2) <font color="red">UTG raises to $8</font>, UTG+1 calls $8, UTG+2 calls $8, MP1 calls $8, Hero calls $8, 3 folds, BB calls $4 Flop: ($50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players) BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="red">UTG+2 bets $32</font>, MP1 calls $32, Hero calls $32, 3 folds Turn: ($146) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players) UTG+2 checks, <font color="red">MP1 bets $100</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $348 and is All-In</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls $248 River: ($842) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) Results: $842 Pot ($3 Rake) MP1 showed J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a flush, Jack high) and WON $839 (+$451 NET) Hero mucked 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and LOST (-$388 NET) Poker Stars, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players LeggoPoker Hand History Converter UTG+1: $386.20 UTG+2: $438.25 MP1: $101 MP2: $704.80 CO: $74 BTN: $331.20 SB: $206.40 Hero (BB): $432.80 UTG: $982.40 Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB) <font color="red">UTG raises to $15</font>, 7 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $48</font>, UTG calls $33 Flop: ($98) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $72</font>, UTG calls $72 Turn: ($242) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $176</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $312.80 and is All-In</font>, UTG calls $136.80 River: ($867.60) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) Results: $867.60 Pot ($3 Rake) Hero showed K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Kings) and LOST (-$432.80 NET) UTG showed 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (a flush, Ace high) and WON $864.60 (+$431.80 NET) Poker Stars, $2/$4 PL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players LeggoPoker Hand History Converter MP2: $373.10 CO: $508 BTN: $74 SB: $390.95 BB: $177.25 Hero (UTG): $419.30 UTG+1: $512 MP1: $111 Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG) <font color="red">Hero raises to $14</font>, UTG+1 calls $14, 4 folds, SB calls $12, BB folds Flop: ($46) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players) SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $32</font>, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises to $64</font>, SB folds, Hero calls $32 Turn: ($174) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG+1 bets $28</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $255</font>, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises to $434 and is All-In</font>, Hero calls $86.30 and is All-In River: ($856.60) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) Results: $856.60 Pot ($3 Rake) Hero showed K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (two pair, Kings and Nines) and LOST (-$419.30 NET) UTG+1 showed A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Nines) and WON $853.60 (+$434.30 NET) Poker Stars, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players LeggoPoker Hand History Converter BTN: $510.40 SB: $257.90 BB: $252.20 UTG: $1,059.70 UTG+1: $323.90 MP1: $445 Hero (MP2): $394 CO: $448 Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP2) UTG folds, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises to $12</font>, MP1 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $48</font>, 4 folds, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises to $136</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $394 and is All-In</font>, UTG+1 calls $187.90 and is All-In Flop: ($653.80) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) Turn: ($653.80) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) River: ($653.80) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) Results: $653.80 Pot ($3 Rake) UTG+1 showed A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (a pair of Aces) and WON $650.80 (+$326.90 NET) Hero mucked K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and LOST (-$323.90 NET) Poker Stars, $2/$4 PL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players LeggoPoker Hand History Converter UTG: $477.50 UTG+1: $41 UTG+2: $162.25 MP1: $113 MP2: $390 CO: $421.25 Hero (BTN): $386 SB: $327.10 BB: $113.20 Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN) 6 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $14</font>, SB calls $12, BB folds Flop: ($32) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $20</font>, SB calls $20 Turn: ($72) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $48</font>, SB calls $48 River: ($168) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">SB bets $165</font>, Hero calls $165 Results: $498 Pot ($3 Rake) Hero mucked J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and LOST (-$247 NET) SB showed J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a straight, Eight to Queen) and WON $495 (+$248 NET) Poker Stars, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players LeggoPoker Hand History Converter BTN: $510.40 SB: $257.90 BB: $252.20 UTG: $1,059.70 UTG+1: $323.90 MP1: $445 Hero (MP2): $394 CO: $448 Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP2) UTG folds, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises to $12</font>, MP1 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $48</font>, 4 folds, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises to $136</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $394 and is All-In</font>, UTG+1 calls $187.90 and is All-In Flop: ($653.80) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) Turn: ($653.80) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) River: ($653.80) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) Results: $653.80 Pot ($3 Rake) UTG+1 showed A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (a pair of Aces) and WON $650.80 (+$326.90 NET) Hero mucked K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and LOST (-$323.90 NET) Poker Stars, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players LeggoPoker Hand History Converter UTG: $462.20 UTG+1: $134.20 UTG+2: $180 MP1: $416 MP2: $1,257.35 CO: $265.30 BTN: $51.70 SB: $304 Hero (BB): $579 Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB) 3 folds, <font color="red">MP1 raises to $16</font>, 4 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $56</font>, <font color="red">MP1 raises to $416 and is All-In</font>, Hero calls $360 Flop: ($834) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) Turn: ($834) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) River: ($834) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) Results: $834 Pot ($3 Rake) MP1 showed Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (a full house, Queens full of Threes) and WON $831 (+$415 NET) Hero showed A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (two pair, Aces and Threes) and LOST (-$416 NET) Poker Stars, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players LeggoPoker Hand History Converter SB: $782.75 BB: $554.20 UTG: $230 UTG+1: $283 MP: $719.45 Hero (CO): $761.30 BTN: $392 Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO) UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $4, MP folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $20</font>, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $16 Flop: ($46) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) UTG+1 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $32</font>, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises to $64</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $476</font>, UTG+1 calls $199 and is All-In Turn: ($572) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) River: ($572) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) Results: $572 Pot ($3 Rake) UTG+1 showed 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a flush, Ace high) and WON $569 (+$286 NET) Hero mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and LOST (-$283 NET) Poker Stars, $3/$6 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players LeggoPoker Hand History Converter MP2: $651 CO: $1,213.50 BTN: $261.75 SB: $588.10 BB: $673.80 UTG: $594 UTG+1: $409 UTG+2: $1,112.50 Hero (MP1): $591 Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP1) UTG calls $6, UTG+1 calls $6, UTG+2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $36</font>, 6 folds, UTG+1 calls $30 Flop: ($87) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) UTG+1 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $54</font>, UTG+1 calls $54 Turn: ($195) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) UTG+1 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $108</font>, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises to $319 and is All-In</font>, Hero calls $211 River: ($833) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) Results: $833 Pot ($3 Rake) UTG+1 showed 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a full house, Kings full of Eights) and WON $830 (+$421 NET) Hero mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and LOST (-$409 NET) |
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