i'm embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American Idol - Page 10

Performify · #91 03-21-2006, 02:50 PM

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one thing i wanted to ask... if they bring out three people and eliminate two, does that mean the saved two were in the lowest three? does seacrest actually say that? or do we assume it?.... as i said, i missed the show last week (and earlier in the season, i think they were coy about the voting - i.e. just told people they WEREN'T THE LOWEST).

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To my knowledge the last two standing are NOT necessarily the lowest two vote totals.

They just stand up the bottom three, and then sit down someone saying "you are not going home today" or etc. They don't say that the two standing are the bottom two.

Angelus · #92 03-21-2006, 05:28 PM

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one thing i wanted to ask... if they bring out three people and eliminate two, does that mean the saved two were in the lowest three? does seacrest actually say that? or do we assume it?.... as i said, i missed the show last week (and earlier in the season, i think they were coy about the voting - i.e. just told people they WEREN'T THE LOWEST).

[/ QUOTE ]

To my knowledge the last two standing are NOT necessarily the lowest two vote totals.

They just stand up the bottom three, and then sit down someone saying "you are not going home today" or etc. They don't say that the two standing are the bottom two.

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That's exactly right. Be very careful in listening how Seacrest phrases things and the exact words he uses.

smbruin22 · #93 03-21-2006, 05:38 PM

angelus and others, thank you very much!

but i need further clarification...

are you saying that ace, melissa and lisa were bottom 3 but we don't know if ace or lisa was lower

OR....

ace and lisa could have been somewhat random. they weren't necessarily bottom 3 (or bottom 2 after melissa eliminated).

thanks in advance for more responses!

Performify · #94 03-21-2006, 05:47 PM

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are you saying that ace, melissa and lisa were bottom 3 but we don't know if ace or lisa was lower

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Exactly.

To put it more specifically:

There were twelve contestants left on last elimination: ranking 10th, 11th and 12th in votes were Melissa, Ace and Lisa. We know Melissa was #12 (as she was kicked off) but have no way of knowing if Lisa Tucker was #10 or #11 in votes. Just because they sat Ace Young down first doesn't mean he was #10 and Lisa was #11, it could have been the other way. However, we do know that Lisa and Ace were #10 and #11 together.

jonnyjewels · #95 03-21-2006, 09:31 PM

After taking time to read this whole thread and find a consensus on who to wager on. Every Sportsbook im at took A.I. off the board

Performify · #96 03-22-2006, 12:02 AM

Well, tonight there was one clear worst performance and that was Bucky Covington. I believe the bottom three will be Bucky, Lisa, and Kevin, with Bucky being eliminated.

The risk of waiting for the performances to happen gives the books the obvious opportunity to adjust the lines, and that's what has happened.

However, I'm still placing my bet for this week as I believe this line still has value:

Who will be eliminated on 03/22/2006?
902) Bucky Covington -165
1.65 units wagered to win one unit.

I recommend locking in on Bucky now, as the line's only going to get worse in my expectation.

Season results: 1-0 eliminations, +1.64 units

Outstanding picks for finals (in weekly wagering units):
Twenty units on Chris to win 60.02 units
Twenty units on Katherine to win 90.84 units
Five units on Elliot to win 47.65 units

I believe Elliot demonstrated the value that I saw in him as an outside underdog with an excellent performance. With his futures line at +1499 I am evaluating a small "value add" there mixed in.

Pinny has also raised the max wager to 3k. I wish I'd had that extra $1k cap to wager when Katherine McPhee was a 5:1 underdog, however I will still likely add the extra amounts at the lower lines. I'm going to run some scenarios.

Wrapup from week two:

I believe Katherine and Chris both demonstrated tonight why they're my clear favorites to win. Both were again excellent. Katherine moreso vocally, Chris moreso in performance quality.

I believe Elliot demonstrated the vocal ability to remain an outside threat to make the finals. He demonstrated to me that he is in fact undervalued at his current ~15:1

I believe Paris stepped above the rest of the black female vocalists with her performance tonight to help distance herself.

Ace did better than expected and will climb out of the bottom three, but still is no threat to make the finals.

I believe Taylor's stock will fall a little this week due to his subpar performance. He demonstrated a lack of range that I believe will hurt him in coming weeks.

Kellie is demonstrating a lot of sex appeal that will carry her, but her 100% country line will hurt her appeal and in my opinion will keep her out of the top three. However I do see how she could last longer than originally anticipated.

Lisa Tucker delivered yet another sub-par performance - its really surprised me how quick she's fallen. I expect to see her in the bottom three this week.

Mandisa performed well and remains a strong vocalist but has absolutely no chance at the final two.

Kevin did, as the judges pointed out, an excellent job of appealing to his target demographic tonight and it will be enough to keep him from getting bounced, albeit not enough to keep him from the bottom three.

Performify · #97 03-22-2006, 12:29 AM

Based on the new (WA) lines and most importantly the new Pinnacle $3k max (compared to previous $2k max) i'm adding the following to my long-term prediction:

Chris +220
Kat +357
Elliott +1551

$1000 to win $2200 Chris
$1000 to win $3570 Kat
$200 to win $3102 Elliot

Of course the lines for Chris and Kat are not as good as the lines when I originally made my first play and first recommendation, which will ultimate hurt the EV of this arbitrage, however I believe if you're just now tuning in you can still join in the arbitrage fun and still turn a profit this season.

Which sets up the following scenarios for the final two:

Chris vs field: $1000 to win +$1000 (+100)
Kat vs field: $1000 to win +$2370 (+237)
Elliot vs field: $200 to win +$1102 (+551)

Chris vs Kat: freeride to win +$1000 or +$2370
Kat vs Elliot: freeride to win +$2370 or +$1102
Chris vs Elliot: freeride to win +$1000 or +$1102

If you add that to my original predicted arbitrage setup:
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$2000 on Chris to win $6002
$2000 on Katherine to win $9840
$500 on Elliot to win $4765

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that gives us:
$3000 on Chris to win $8202
$3000 on Katherine to win $13,410
$700 on Elliot to win $7867

with an endgame scenario of:

Chris in finals vs field: $3k to win $4502 (+150)
Kat in finals vs field: $3k to win $9710 (+324)
Elliot in finals vs field: $700 to win $1867 (+267)

Chris vs Kat in finals: freeroll for $4502 or $9710
Chris vs Elliot in finals: freeroll for $4502 or $1867
Kat vs Elliot in finals: freeroll for $9710 or $1867

Any of which I expect to have, as the reason for originally posting the thread, significant arbitrage opportunities to lock in a guaranteed profit.

Performify · #98 03-22-2006, 12:50 AM

I'll also add I believe Lisa Tucker to go home at ~+500 is a +EV bet, as I believe she has about a 30% chance to go home this week. She's my clear #2. However, as +EV alone doesn't pay off I'll be sticking with Bucky.

If you wanted to hedge the two an attractive move would be $165 to win $100 on Bucky and $40 to win $198 on Lisa, providing a profit of $60 if Bucky walks and $34 if Lisa walks which I believe reflects the balance of the approximate expected outcome (Bucky as a ~2:1 favorite to walk over Lisa as the #2 to walk, in my handicapping)

AltarBoyCHA · #99 03-22-2006, 01:15 AM

Question re: the title.

why would you be embarrassed to arb teenagers/20somethings singing, when we're all so willing to do the same thing when it involves them moving a ball around? this strikes me as a very profitable setup you've got going performify.

Performify · #**100** 03-22-2006, 01:58 AM

I'm no longer embarrassed. The public outcry of support has outweighed the jabs I've taken. And more than anything, it led to the comedy gold that Craig posted above, which was well worth the price of admission.

In all seriousness, the original title was meant to be humorous but also specific - i'm not embarrassed to bet on Idol - +EV is +EV wherever it lies - i was just embarrassed to post about doing so [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]