AA - DEEEEEEP vs hudge nit - i cripple the board

[Speedlimits]

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I bet JJ-KK here too.

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Why?

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From a strictly EV viewpoint it is pretty close between betting and checking but I bet for balancing purposes.

[loosbastard]

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From a strictly EV viewpoint it is pretty close between betting and checking but I bet for balancing purposes.

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Fair enough.

[aislephive]

This hand is just whatever. I think checking and betting the flop both have a very similar expected value. Even against villains who like to bluff the decision to bet or check is very close. He is more likely on average to bet when we check as a bluff than raise when we bet, but we win more by being bluff raised than we do by check calling.

Against JJ-KK, I believe there is more value to betting the flop than checking. With a laggy image it's very likely villain will peel KK/QQ and not as often but often enough JJ. I would check the turn often if he calls and check/call any bet (turn checkraise is not good) and lead the river for 60% pot or so. If he checks then obviously value bet the river.

Some people will say that after we check the flop villain won't put us on an ace and will therefore call any future bets down. Taking this line you're likely to get called on the turn by KK-JJ, but I don't think they will call the river. This depends on the nit though. He really should see that we're taking him to valuetown always when we take this line. If we had air we would likely always bet the flop if we wanted to bluff, and KK-JJ isn't beating any hands that we're value betting.

I do feel that after we bet the flop and check the turn, we will get a suspicious river call from KK-JJ a good percentage more often than if we had checked the flop and bet the turn/river. The turn check is key to getting value on the river if we bet the flop.

Overall like I said it's not a big deal either way to check or bet. I'd lean towards betting I think, though. With shallower stacks I'd lean towards checking. With 100bbs, I would check this way more than I would bet.