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#92
09-25-2007, 11:29 AM
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Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I find this post very reassuring: [ QUOTE ] Can someone tell me why West Virginia is only a touchdown favorite over South Florida? What am I missing here? [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] is this another shot at me? Look here is my initial thoughts as I will do my research tomorrow. Florida is at home and have looked impressive so far. However, WVU is in the national title hunt. With Florida losing to LSU in a couple of weeks WVU will be one game away from the Big One. Plus this is a national game where they know voters will be watching. Plus the have some guys named pat white and steve slaton. I personally thought the line should between -9.5 and -12. [/ QUOTE ] Jazzy, Teams in the National Title Hunt lose all the time. Its college football. A team with 1 loss won the title last year. If you look at USF's D, they have more than enough speed to handle slaton and white. They did it last year at WVU. Its at home this year. Furthermore, thus far USF's O has been putting up pretty decent numbers passing and WVU's pass D is not that good. 
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#94
09-25-2007, 12:09 PM
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Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
I think it's funny that you've called them Florida and UCF so far. I agree that your analysis that they are one win over USF and one Florida loss to LSU away from being one slot out of the national title game(ZOMG!) is neither here nor there. I do think that USF is a tad overrated however. Let's face it, Auburn did not exactly play lights out against them and despite winning the turnover battle 5-0 (almost all of those came in Auburn territory, 3 inside the 25 and one inside the 5) they still got taken to overtime. They looked much better IMO against UNC, but I'm not sure how much of that was them and how much was UNC just being inept. Meh, WVU just seems about a TD better on the road.
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#97
09-25-2007, 12:31 PM
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Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
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Ok lets say you had a free one way 6 pt teaser. Do you tease WVU to -1 or UCF to -13? [/ QUOTE ] I would def take USF +13 (assuming thats what you meant). In fact, this is the play I will most likely do anyways.
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#98
09-25-2007, 01:02 PM
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Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I find this post very reassuring: [ QUOTE ] Can someone tell me why West Virginia is only a touchdown favorite over South Florida? What am I missing here? [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] is this another shot at me? Look here is my initial thoughts as I will do my research tomorrow. Florida is at home and have looked impressive so far. However, WVU is in the national title hunt. With Florida losing to LSU in a couple of weeks WVU will be one game away from the Big One. Plus this is a national game where they know voters will be watching. Plus the have some guys named pat white and steve slaton. I personally thought the line should between -9.5 and -12. [/ QUOTE ] I'm pretty certain Slaton and White played last year.
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#100
09-25-2007, 01:46 PM
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Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
[ QUOTE ]
BTW, this is a little off-topic, but does anyone know where I can find rankings for adjusted rush defense or adjusted pass efficiency defense where the numbers are adjusted for the offenses faced? I vaguely remember seeing these somewhere on the internet last year, but I searched for a while today and I couldn't come up with anything. [/ QUOTE ] I only remember seeing that for NCAAB I've just tried to adjust the numbes myselves through guesstimation
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