WSOP player claims he folded AA on the bubble

[NickMPK]

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However, someone with only $1,000 in assets should not be playing in a $10K poker tournament. This is not +EV for them no matter how good they are.

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Do you know the difference between bankroll management and expected value?

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Yes, and I mean "expected value" meaning expected utility, not expected wealth.

If a player only has $11,000, it is likely losing $10,000 is going to be so valuable to him as to outweight the value of the chance at a large WSOP cash, even if he is skilled enough that his pure wealth EV for the tournament is 5 times the buy-in, because the structure is so heavily weighted toward the top places (as it is in any poker tournament).

[Badger]

This thread is retarded. +Chip EV is NOT equal to +$EV.
I'd rather make the plus $ EV play here.

Since we don't know what the situation is I'll let Wadea, EWS and others continue to blather like idiots until we get more details on the hand.

Can you honestly not see how a flat payout structure, small stack size, distance from the blinds, and proximity to the bubble can make AA an easy fold?

I like they play of going all in and flipping up AA, then sitting out your penalty hands and coming back in the money.

[EWS87]

im really shocked as to how little clue many of the people in this thread has about poker. is this forum just one for people who only watch poker on tv and follow on pokernews and dont actually play?

there is NO disputing that if the 20K for 621st meant that much to him that he SHOULD NOT BE IN THE TOURNAMENT for 10K...the only way he can play it is if he has extreme confidence in his game. Which he clearly doesn't because to fold there means he does not think he can win once in 411 tries with 622 left...which any poker player should think he can do multiple times.

there are situations where folding makes sense, like someone said earlier about player A having 1mil and player B having 999K...and you having 1000 and they both go allin...but these extreme circumstances were not even close to the case on this money bubble

one thing not mentioned, is that folding does not guarantee you the money. if your short and miss an excellent chance to double up, you could end up getting blinded out. if he had enough chips where this was not a fear, then he clearly had enough fold equity to push and not get called everytime making his EV amazingly high. i guess the lesson learned is do not try to talk strategy on a forum full of spectators...anyone not realizing the facts that make this a push really has a lower level of intelligence then most people on this board and should give up poker

[Lori]

Why shouldn't he spend 10k to live the dream and then lock in a nice 10k profit on top.

Makes hell of a story at work next week.

Lori

[EWS87]

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Why shouldn't he spend 10k to live the dream and then lock in a nice 10k profit on top.

Makes hell of a story at work next week.

Lori

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sorry maybe this is why i cant relate to this whole thing...i dont go to work i make good decisions playing poker and dont fold AA

[pineapple888]

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there is NO disputing that if the 20K for 621st meant that much to him that he SHOULD NOT BE IN THE TOURNAMENT for 10K...

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WTF? If people who shouldn't play the game didn't play the game, there would be no poker at all.

The point is, once somebody IS there, and finds themselves in that spot, what should they do? And that's been discussed to death, so let's stop here.

[Lori]

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Why shouldn't he spend 10k to live the dream and then lock in a nice 10k profit on top.

Makes hell of a story at work next week.

Lori

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sorry maybe this is why i cant relate to this whole thing...i dont go to work i make good decisions playing poker and dont fold AA

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If you don't understand why your opponents make bad decisions, the likelihood is that you're not very good.

Lori

[s33w33d]

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if ure planning on folding AA on the bubble then dont go to the ME at all.

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If you're planning to never ever fold AA on the bubble no matter the circumstance, then you shouldn't go to ME at all either, at least not until you learn the basics of ICM theory. Making -$EV plays is not how you make money in the long run.

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Folding Aces in this situation is -cEV, but +$EV.

[Bobbo539]

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But say that a player, Jim, has $1,000 in his bank account, and he has a 20k chip stack with the blinds 2-4k, we are one player from the money so folding in is not a problem. Jim gets AA, but the big stack raises to 15k in front of him, so he would call Jim's all in... lets also assume Jim knows for a fact he is a 75-25 favorite.


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I think you could construct a lot of realistic-sounding hypotheticals where folding AA on the bubble makes perfect sense from a "diminishing marginal utility of wealth" perspective if for some reason a player was forced to play in the Main Event.

However, someone with only $1,000 in assets should not be playing in a $10K poker tournament. This is not +EV for them no matter how good they are. They've already made such a huge mistake by entering that tournament that what they decide to do with AA on the bubble is really the least of their problems.

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You make a good point. But I could forsee a situation where players qualify for free or win some 50$ satelite or step-shootout to qualify.

I would bet that there are a number of players in the ME that have less than 10k, probably not very many, but some nonetheless who qualified through one of these satelites.

[Rottersod]

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Three players left in tournament.

Player A 1,000,000 chips
Player B 999,000 chips
You 1,000 chips

Player A goes all in, Player B calls, you fold without looking.

Foldfoldfoldfoldfold.

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