A Female President: Is America ready?

[Blarg]

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The two main blocks that reliably vote: old people and people who are highly religious/one-issue voters.

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Old people actually vote Democratic in higher numbers because of Social Security and Medicare

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Link?

[ChipWrecked]

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By now, America has seemed to adapt pretty fully to the idea of an imperial presidency and political oligarchies. As the American voter becomes less and less relevant to how the country really runs, money and pedigree working together have fashioned politicians into a class unto themselves that pisses down on the rest of us from a considerable height. And we seem pretty much fine with that, and even seem to dig it a little.

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Your guilty consciences may make you vote Democratic, but secretly you all yearn for a Republican president to lower taxes, brutalize criminals, and rule you like a king!

[John Spartan]

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The two main blocks that reliably vote: old people and people who are highly religious/one-issue voters.

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Old people actually vote Democratic in higher numbers because of Social Security and Medicare

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Link?

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During the 1990s, seniors voted twice for Bill Clinton: by 50-38 over George H. W. Bush in 1992, and 48-44 over Bob Dole in 1996.

In 2000, Al Gore won seniors nationally by 51-47 over George W. Bush, but, in the critical and deciding state of Florida, according to exit polls, Bush won seniors by that same margin.

Bush won seniors in 2004 over Kerry but he also won the 30-44 and the next age group up as well.

I'd be very surprised if the Democratic nominee doesn't carry a majority of seniors again.

[John Spartan]

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The two main blocks that reliably vote: old people and people who are highly religious/one-issue voters.

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Old people actually vote Democratic in higher numbers because of Social Security and Medicare

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Recent studies have shown that the swing in people who identify themselves or lean Democratic is due to people who formerly were for smaller government now starting to favor more government help in terms of social programs...medicare/ss/etc

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that is what 6 and a half years of cronyism and corporatism will do to the electorate.

[Rick Nebiolo]

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...the notion that evangs will still mobilize over a guy who is pro abortion/pro gays/pro everything they hate is kind of silly

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But Hillary/Obama is even more "everything they hate". What they would probably do is stay home or vote without enthusiasm for Rudy or Mitt. So most of the red states stay red despite low turnout.

~ Rick

[Jamougha]

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I think you underestimate the power of single-issue religious voters. They may not vote for Rudy, but that's a far cry from saying they'll vote for a democrat.

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Yes, but if hey say at home that's an enormous boost for the Dems. Elections are decided more than anyhing by who can mobilise their supporters.

In spite of how everyone says they hate Hilary, according o the polls she would just beat McCain or Guiliani if the elections were held tomorrow. Overall I think those matchups will be a coin toss. If Obama is he Dem candidate then he will probably destroy whoever he's up against. He's polling way ahead and he will mobilise the many black voters who would always have been on the Dem side but just never turned out to vote.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm

Edit: I's only a coin toss between Hilary and Mc/Gu if Bloomberg doesn't run. Pretty damn sure that if he does then it's a slam-dunk for the Dems.

[Blarg]

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...the notion that evangs will still mobilize over a guy who is pro abortion/pro gays/pro everything they hate is kind of silly

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But Hillary/Obama is even more "everything they hate". What they would probably do is stay home or vote without enthusiasm for Rudy or Mitt. So most of the red states stay red despite low turnout.

~ Rick

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Being that since the days of Reagan at least the democrats have been painted by republicans as near satanic, the idea of the red states changing color seems far fetched to say the least.

[CharlieDontSurf]

The key is not for them to change color and vote Dem...but to not get out and vote. And also not to rally the troops to get out and hit the streets and make sure everyone else gets out and votes for Rudy.

The indeps are going to go democrat regardless of the rep nominee simply based off the fact that Rudy is all for staying in Iraq and possibly attacking invading Iran. He also has just as many skeletons as clinton.

With a shift in indep + a lack of mobilization of the far right. Hillary can win and Obama would cream him.

[ChipWrecked]

So, are you taking the bet? You threw down.

[Jamougha]

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So, are you taking the bet? You threw down.

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Oh hey, yeah I didn't even see your post. OK, a c-note is fine. We can 'shake' on it. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]