2008 National Champions (NCAAF)

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
Iowa in the past has competed for 1 title and has been top 15 in a bunch of years since 2002.

2002-#3 Before the Bowl Season (8th After AP)
2003-#13 Before the Bowl Season (8th after)
2004-#8 Before the Bowl Season (8th after)
2005-Not Ranked
2006-Not Ranked

Not sure what their future prospects are though. Wisconsin your right about but that's saying more than a bunch of other teams you might also consider "contenders" right now.

[/ QUOTE ]

yep, is anyone in the Big10 other than Michigan and Ohio State scheduling for the national title

Most of these teams are worried about winning in the conference and padding the win rates and football revenues with the non-conference games.

For those that don't click the link, following is the number of 0-loss and 1-loss big10 seasons respectively from 1996 through this season:
Ohio State 2,3
Michigan 1,4
Wisconsin 0,3
Iowa 1,1
Penn State 0,1
Illinois 0,1
Northwestern 0,1
Purdue 0,0
Michigan State 0,0
Minnesota 0,0
Indiana 0,0


That list is a pretty good approximation of how likely teams are to win the national title in the Big10 from top to bottom over the next 10-15 years. I would probably bump Penn State ahead of Iowa and push Northwestern to the bottom, but that is about it. Realistically, Wisconsin and Iowa are not thinking of scheduling in terms of a national title and they shouldn't be, yet. If they scheduled hard now, those games would happen in 3 to 4 years at best. That could be very detrimental to a team that needs non-conference wins to get a bowl game, such as Iowa's dominating 2-6 Big10 team this year. Until they do it year after year after year, the scheduling philosophy just shouldn't be directed that way.

Other than Ohio State and Michigan, the only schools to have 6 or more big10 wins in back-2-back seasons were Wisconsin in 1998-99 (Ron Dayne era IIRC), Purude in 97-98 (introduction of bball on grass under Tiller with no Michigan and Ohio State on the schedule), and Penn State in 95-96.

Meanwhile, Ohio State had one stretch of 3 years and is now in 4 of the last 5 with 6 or more conference wins. Michigan has only fell short of 6 conference wins twice since '96.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
"yeah its possible, but its a very slim chance. He's stating there is no way wisconsin makes the national championship with their schedule."

No I didn't, I said it would have to be extreme circumstances...which is only one scenario, Wisconsin running the table with no or one other team. If any team has the same record as Wisconsin ever, Wisconsin won't be the team picked for homecoming. So once again, why wouldn't you increase your SOS for the more liklihood of having the same record as a fraternity of other teams? Wouldn't you agree that Wisconsin running the table next year is far less likely than them being a 1 loss team (though I believe they will lose more than one game)?

[/ QUOTE ]

see 2000-2003 big ten seasons for Wisconsin where they followed back-2-back 7-1 campaigns with 4-4, 3-5, 2-6, and 4-4 records. In 2000, they played 3 home games (Oregon 10-1, Cincinnati 7-5, W Michigan 9-3) and 1 road game (Hawaii 3-9) in the non-conference. They had a quality home win over Oregon and needed a few close calls to make a bowl.

2001
2-2 non-conf; 5-7 overall MISSED BOWL
beat Virginia (5-7) at home
lost @ Oregon (11-1)
lost v Fresno St (11-3) at home
beat 1-AA W Kentucky at home

they scheduled a little tougher and missed the bowl...yikes, that is big money gone

2002
5-0 non-conf, 2-6 big10--STILL BOWLING
23-21 home v Fresno St (9-5)
27-7 @ UNLV (5-7)
34-17 home v W Virginia (9-4)
24-21 home v N ILL (8-4)
31-10 home v Arizona (4-8)
wow, a couple of close mid-major calls. If one goes the other way, no bowl.

2003
3-1 non-conf; 4-4 big10--BOWLING
24-17 @ West Virginia (8-5)
48-31 v Akron (7-5)
5-23 LOSS v UNLV (6-6)
38-27 v UNC (2-10)

these years are following b2b 7-1 big10 rose bowl campaigns. The non-conf schedule was a huge part of the Badgers going bowling in 3 of 4 years there. Missing a bowl game really kills the program momentum. It is better to err toward being too light if you are Wisconsin's AD than being too harsh.

[tdarko]

MyTurn,

These are reasons why I think they are one of the more overrated programs in the country.

I was just pointing out that there is really only a very slight chance that Wisconsin could ever compete for a National Championship w/ the way they schedule. They have their reasons but for those who swear by them can't be this biased.

Good stuff MyTurn.

[MEbenhoe]

Florida's non-conference schedule this year
Southern Miss
Central Florida
Western Carolina
Florida St.

LSU's non-conference schedule this year
La Lafayette
Arizona
Tulane
Fresno State

Michigan's nonconference schedule
Vanderbilt
Central Michigan
Notre Dame (seriously this isn't that much better than scheduling a cupcake)
Ball State

Oklahoma's 2004 non-conference schedule
Bowling Green
Houston
Oregon (5-6)

Oklahoma's 2003 non-conference schedule
North Texas
Alabama (4-9)
Fresno State
UCLA (6-7)

LSU's 2003 non-conference schedule
Louisiana-Monroe
Arizona
Western Illinois

And you're telling me that to get to the BCS Championship you need a tough non-conference schedule?

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
USC road games next season. At Neb, Cal, Oregon, UW, ASU, and Notre Dame.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which one of these games do you expect them to lose? SC will be sick next year. Everyone gains a year of experience. Gable, Booty, THEIR DEFENSE... They lose Jarrett, but so what? USC knows how to recruit wide receivers. I'm sure they have another superstar on the sidelines.

Personally, I think Oklahoma will be good next year.

1.USC
2.Oklahoma
3.Louisville
4.(insert SEC team here)

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
USC actually split the conference title with Cal but won the tie breaker with the HU win. Cal beats Zona but loses to USC and they would have gone. Both teams had 2 in-conference losses.

[/ QUOTE ]

so what you're saying is USC won the Pac 10 title? thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it is a shared title, but yes, they won half of the pac10 title this year.

[Caldarooni]

CSC,

USC loses to Cal. Book it.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
Florida's non-conference schedule this year
Southern Miss
Central Florida
Western Carolina
Florida St.

LSU's non-conference schedule this year
La Lafayette
Arizona
Tulane
Fresno State

Michigan's nonconference schedule
Vanderbilt
Central Michigan
Notre Dame (seriously this isn't that much better than scheduling a cupcake)
Ball State

Oklahoma's 2004 non-conference schedule
Bowling Green
Houston
Oregon (5-6)

Oklahoma's 2003 non-conference schedule
North Texas
Alabama (4-9)
Fresno State
UCLA (6-7)

LSU's 2003 non-conference schedule
Louisiana-Monroe
Arizona
Western Illinois

And you're telling me that to get to the BCS Championship you need a tough non-conference schedule?

[/ QUOTE ]

very good point....Wisconsin doesn't miss Ohio State next year. They don't miss any of the other 4 'name' Big10 opponents. If they ran the table with Ohio St, Michigan, Penn St, and Iowa, it is very, very unlikely they would be held out. You'd have to have 2 other teams go undefeated that started out higher in the preseason and have 'name' recognition, or Notre Dame finish with 5 or less losses [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] .

[teamdonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
For all those on the Michigan bandwagon, don't forget that Lloyd Carr is still head coach.

In the last 6 seasons his record against OSU and Bowl opponents is 2-10. In Carr's last 17 non-conference games against teams from BCS conferences and ND, he is 6-11.

It doesn't matter how much talent UM returns, as long as coach Carr is on the sidelines, don't include us in the NC discussion.

[/ QUOTE ]

Carr haters crack me up. Like somehow he has nothing to do with them being a great team, but when they lose some big games it's all his fault.

Nebraska - won't quite be a top 5 team next year, probably top 10

West Virginia - will be sick with Slayton and White both back. The winner of their game with Louisville will be playing for the national title IMO.

[rwperu34]

[ QUOTE ]
Notre Dame (seriously this isn't that much better than scheduling a cupcake)


[/ QUOTE ]

If you want to be "serious" about this discussion, you can't make statements like this. This statement also leads to the major flaw in your thinking. It's not necessarily about playing against "top 5" teams. Having a Fresno State or a .500 team from a BCS conference is much different than playing Western Illinois and Buffalo. Notre Dame is clearly a top 25 team this season .

Also of note, every team on your list that actually played for a national title with a weak non conference schedule had a conference title game, which gave them that extra tough game. 2006 and beyond the Pac-10 will have that extra tough game by playing a 9th conference game. That leaves the Big 10 and Big East most in need of scheduling tough non conference opponents. Not suprisingly, those are the two conferences that are least likely to have a one loss team play for a championship.