Ivey vs. Corey Pavin golf bet

[stinkypete]

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If you take my quote the way you're saying, we could give a 15 handicap an infinite number of rounds to break par.

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exactly, and i'm offering 5 rounds, so it should be a good bet for you.

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right, but your'e taking what I said out of context. I meant it towards one round, as the bet is set up.

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i'm not taking it out of context, i'm taking what you said literally. if you mean something other than what you said, say what you mean.

[rianb]

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btw, phil should expect to shoot under par even with the 2-shot format. i'll bet on that at 1 to 1 in a second if we can somehow set it up.

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This is what you said, and I said more or less that I'd take that bet.

You referred to Ivey, which I took to mean that you'd offer that bet in the context of Ivey's bet, which is one round

[rianb]

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i'm not taking it out of context, i'm taking what you said literally. if you mean something other than what you said, say what you mean.

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So I guess what I mean is, I'd take a bet at 1:1 against a 15 handicapper breaking par, in a scramble format, from the red tees, in one round of golf

[stinkypete]

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i'm not taking it out of context, i'm taking what you said literally. if you mean something other than what you said, say what you mean.

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So I guess what I mean is, I'd take a bet at 1:1 against a 15 handicapper breaking par, in a scramble format, from the red tees, in one round of golf

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based on what others have said here, i think i might be able to get better odds. but i'm interested in this bet. how would you propose going about setting it up?

to be honest i think it's very close. in windy conditions i probably wouldn't make the bet. in good scoring conditions i would. i'd only be willing to bet maybe 1k-2k. i'd take more action at better odds.

so what's your plan on how we would do this? how do we find an impartial 15-handicap? we'd obviously have to pay for his rounds and maybe something for his time, so this might not really be feasible, but i'm interested in what you propose.

EDIT: i thought i was replying to thremp, but if anyone else is interested let me know what you propose.

[recondite7]

Corey Pavin is an insanely accurate and not a big hitter at all. I would think that this would make him an excellent player at a an easier golf course, but he did win a US open (probably the toughest tournament) so who knows.

I think Pavin wins easily.

ABC should come up with something like this. I'd love to watch Charles Barkley go up against his friend Tiger Woods with rules like this.

[Spy Dog]

5400 yards is pretty short. A legit 15 handicapper who putts pretty well should be able to keep it around par. His handicap becomes a 10 or 11 at the reduced yardage (assuming he played all his rounds at 5400 yards, yet calculated his handicap as if he played at 6500 yards or so). I'll take a weaker ballstriker/better putter over a weaker putter/better ballstriker in this pseudo-scramble format.

Pavin will probably average 70 from the tips at a course with a course rating of 73.9. However, his range of scores is 65-75 on this course.

I think Ivey has a smaller range of scores, like 68-76, because of the scramble format.

Overall, I'd say Pavin is a slight favorite. I'd give him a 70% chance of winning this bet, assuming Ivey is a legit 15 and is a decent putter.

I'm a +2 if that adds any credibility to my analysis.

[droopy0021]

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but the general premise that guys like PI do not enter into the terrible bets that you think they do still holds. Basically, if a solid pro gambler enters into a bet and you think it's ridiculously against him - think again.

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Phil Ivey is known to play craps for pretty high stakes. Those bets are always against him [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

While he might be better at golf than we think, don't discount the action he's seeking by playing a Tour professional for $10k/hole.

These guys don't even get enough action at $4,000/$8,000 hold em and they need prop bets on what suit the flop will be?????

[7n7]

I know the thread has gotten sidetracked a bit, but I just want to reiterate that Ivey is WORSE than a 15 handicap. I thought I saw 17 somewhere, but my eyes are swimming from all of the numbers being thrown out.

Anyhoo, my OP just listed 3 hypothetical handicaps, 10, 15, and 20.

It sounds to me that the majority would take Pavin at 15+. One poster said Ivey at 10 would be a good bet and 11 or 12 might be break-even. Don't play golf enough to know if that's true or not.

And I've read about quite a few golf bets between poker players and I've never heard anyone taking a bet when they didn't have an edge or at least a fair deal. IMO, Ivey believes he does somehow.

[rwesty]

$10k/hole is probably a relatively normal every day bet for Ivey.

[stinkypete]

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5400 yards is pretty short. A legit 15 handicapper who putts pretty well should be able to keep it around par. His handicap becomes a 10 or 11 at the reduced yardage (assuming he played all his rounds at 5400 yards, yet calculated his handicap as if he played at 6500 yards or so). I'll take a weaker ballstriker/better putter over a weaker putter/better ballstriker in this pseudo-scramble format.

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a 15 is more like a 6 or 7 on this course. the course rating would be about 64, and the slope probably under 110.