3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 1

[jonnyd]

400 Eagles
300 Chargers
200 falcons
100 patriots

[BobJoeJim]

Consensus data:

All right, I'm really bored at work, so I went through and tabulated the bets placed on each of the 64 different lines so far in this contest. I'm not sure how much of it I should pass along, since it could provide an unfair advantage to people who haven't locked in picks yet, so for now I'll just share info on tonight's game and one or two other particularly interesting facts. If I get positive responses, and people convince me they aren't worried about this damaging contest integrity, I could give more detailed info, since I'm sure some people out there would be interested in following particularly strong consensus with some real bets of their own.

So here's what I'll share for now. Total amount wagered so far: $79,000. $62,200 of that is on spreads, and $16,800 is on totals. Of the money wagered on spreads, $5100 (1/12th of all spread bets) is on the Steelers, with only $800 on the Dolphins. Since there is clearly no reason anyone here might have had any bias when they picked Pittsburgh, we can assume this means that the Steelers are a lock at PK, so go hammer that line. Bet like, I don't know, $1100 or something.

The one game from down the road that I want to point out is San Diego. The Chargers have had $3800 (1/16th of all spread bets) placed on them at -3, while the Raiders are one of two teams who has not yet had ANYONE pick them. This is a pretty strong consensus, so if you feel comfortable following 2+2 on anything, this is probably your best bet. Especially since according to SBR lines you can get San Diego -3 (+114) at Pinnacle right now.

Do you want to hear more? Or should I shut up and stop helping the people who haven't picked yet?

[VarlosZ]

$400 Bengals/Chiefs u46.5
$300 Steelers pk
$200 Jaguars -2
$100 Ravens/Bucs o33.5


Many thanks to Homer for stepping up and running the competition this year. You, sir, are a mensch.

I'm figuring that KC's offense has downgraded due to age and retirement, while their defense has finally improved to "decent" with their free agent additions plus some recent draft picks maturing. Combine that with Carson Palmer feeling shaky about his knee, and I really like the under here.

[West]

I don't think you're giving away too much. If someone really wants to go with who others like it's not too hard to browse through and spot teams being taken a lot (except for the fact that some people are using numbers). I know I saw a fair amount of "Eagles" and "Bengals" myself while browsing posts. Think there were a lot of "Bears" too.

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you're giving away too much. If someone really wants to go with who others like it's not too hard to browse through and spot teams being taken a lot (except for the fact that some people are using numbers). I know I saw a fair amount of "Eagles" and "Bengals" myself while browsing posts. Think there were a lot of "Bears" too.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well you're certainly right that there were lots of Eagles. They were far and away the most popular pick, with their $7900 dwarfing Pittsburgh's second place $5100. Their opponent Houston has only gotten $800 in action. It's a less useful pick, though, for someone who wants to follow along with actual bets, since the line has moved to -5.5 now at several places.

Also, since I mentioned there were two teams that hadn't received a single pick, let me just add that the other unanimous choice is San Francisco (with $3300) at +8.

Then there is Indianapolis -3, with their $4100, to just $400 for the Giants. Also extremely popular is the under in this game, with $2000 riding on it (more than is on any other total) and just $300 on the over.

Other unanimously popular totals include Cowboys/Jaguars under ($1400 to $0), Vikings/Redskins over ($1200 to $0), and Falcons/Panthers under ($1000 to $0). Not unanimous, but still popular, is Bears/Packers under, by a margin of $1800 to $600.

[GoodDoctor]

Eagles
Vikings/Redskins over 34.5
Bears/Packers under 35
Bears

[bucrogers]

Bills
Dolphins
Browns
49ers

[CarlSpackler]

Eagles
49ers
Packers
Steelers

[omahahahaha]

lions
bills/pats over
texans
falcons

[talcum]

Pittsburgh pk $400
San Diego -3 $300
Minnesota +4.5 $200
New Orleans +3 $100