$25NL suited connector: play along

[jumbojacks]

[ QUOTE ]
Welcome back Pokey! I like your explanations. The poll results are a bit disturbing though. We are not raising this hand primarily for deception.

p.s. Congrats with the lady friend.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what is your reason for raising this?

[wslee00]

re: Turn

You were pf raiser, yet this guy has bet into you on the flop and the turn. He likes his hand. I think the money's going in no matter what. Any 2, 6, or 7 on the river could slow him down so I'd push this.

His range? two pair, set, overpair, straight

[C4LL4W4Y]

33-TT, 34s, 45s, 67s, A2s

[Khaos4k]

[ QUOTE ]
33-TT, 34s, 45s, 67s, A2s

[/ QUOTE ]

This is about the range I give him, maybe throwing in JJ and QQ if he's really passive. I personally know some villains that won't play those for a raise because they get scared if an ace or a king shows up, and always think that one will show up.

[gimmetheloot]

33-JJ, AA. Straights, Top two, Bluff. Maybe other two pairs. Maybe even TPTK who knows.

[Pokey]

<font color="blue">OK, so I asked you to come up with a logical range for villain. The easiest way to do this is to walk step-by-step through the hand and decide what his bets mean. Then we can figure out what holdings would make those kinds of bets.</font>

SB: $28.80
BB: $24.60
Pokey (UTG): $25.75
MP: $19.10
CO: $68.60
BTN: $84.90

Preflop: Pokey is dealt 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red">Pokey raises to $1</font>, MP calls $1, 3 folds, BB calls $0.75

<font color="blue">Smooth-call: shows minor interest in the hand. We can probably eliminate the super-premium hands, though some players will slowplay against a raiser. Beyond that, this call tells us little. At this point, any two cards are possible.</font>

Flop: ($3.10) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $3.10</font>, Pokey calls $3.10, MP folds

<font color="blue">Villain makes a pot-sized bet into two opponents: he is demonstrating significant strength. Either villain is betting a made hand (pair/overpair = 33+, two pair = 54, 43, 53, TPTK = A5, A4, A3, straight = A2, 62, 76) or villain has a combo draw that he really likes (32, 42, 52, 65, 64, 63, A7), or he has missed but has decided to bluff at the pot completely (ATC). Given that he called a raise preflop, we can rule out many of these hands (62o??), leaving us with something like:

33+, A2-A7, 76, 65, 54, 43, 53s, pure bluff (unlikely -- maybe 20%)</font>

Turn: ($9.30) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $5.50</font>, Pokey calls $5.50

<font color="blue">Villain slows down when the turn comes with a blank ten. This tells me that not only did the ten fail to help him, it probably hurt him. The most likely possibilities are that his strong draw failed to improve or that his TPTK+ turned into something worse than that. It's also vaguely possible that this is a strange form of "I hit my monster so I check," so there's a slight chance that this is TT, but I'd call that rather unlikely. We can eliminate JJ+, because they would have no reason to slow down on the turn. It's also highly unlikely villain has a set or two pairs, because these hands wouldn't slow down either. Villain's most likely range now:

66-99, A3-A7, 65, pure bluff (unlikely -- 15%), slowplay (unlikely -- 15%)</font>

River: ($20.30) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets all-in for $15</font>, Pokey calls $15

<font color="blue">Villain sped back up again: that's either strength of it's a desperation bluff. It's possible that the 9 improved villain (the only holding for which this is true is 99), and it's possible that villain has nothing and is playing for the pot, realizing that a bluff is his only chance. The one-pair hands are unlikely to have made a massive bet here; more typically they would opt for a smallish blocking bet. Most likely holdings:

99, A7, A6, 65, pure bluff unpaired (unlikely -- 10%), slowplayed set/two pair (unlikely -- 20%)

In this particular hand, villain flipped up A7o to show a perfectly understandable hand, considering the plays:

- Smooth-call preflop with an ace (OK, a bad play but one that many $25NL players would make)
- Bet hard with a double-gutter as a semibluff
- Price himself into his draw on the turn
- Desperation bluff the river

I had the nuts, but considering this thought process I think I'd have to call that river bet with a holding as weak as J9: villain's line is more likely to be junk than it is to be the goods. The turn play just telegraphed way too much information for me to choose to fold this river with any holding as weak as 2PGK.

If you start thinking about the game with this kind of sleuthing process, your bankroll will thank you.</font>

[Sweir]

Nice analysis pokey, ty.

[corsakh]

Pokah, pokah, pokah [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Nice to see you.

On the flop, the BB most likely has either a monster, which pays out regardless of what you do, or an over. Now I am not sure how big of an over he has, but its most likely in 66-JJ range. This means there are a lot of cards that will kill our action on the turn. So I prefer raising his bet that is going to make our job of stacking him a lot easier if he has something like 88. We probably loose the other guy but well.. what you gonna do, I cant see many hands that call a potbet on this board anyway and those that do, may very well call a raise too [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[C4LL4W4Y]

[ QUOTE ]
On the flop, the BB most likely has either a monster, which pays out regardless of what you do, or an over. Now I am not sure how big of an over he has, but its most likely in 66-JJ range. This means there are a lot of cards that will kill our action on the turn. So I prefer raising his bet that is going to make our job of stacking him a lot easier if he has something like 88. We probably loose the other guy but well.. what you gonna do, I cant see many hands that call a potbet on this board anyway and those that do, may very well call a raise too [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but with MP still left to act and a coordinated board, there is a possibility we will lose some value from the times he has something middling with which he's willing to continue.

[corsakh]

354 is too low to be coordinated... unless he plays A-rag of course, but with A2-A6 he may very well feel obliged to call a raise [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]