Early Week 2 NFL Picks

[rsigley]

looks like saints will have something to prove in week 3 too

[Indiana]

well i reloaded and put most of it all in on the colts....also some on the under for that game.

Also a little on cincy -6.5.

Indy

[TomG]

[ QUOTE ]
Based on my picks this is a valid point, however not for the Browns. I am aware of home field, however I guess where we differ is in a game like Saints vs Bucs, Bengals vs Browns, and maybe even Colts vs Titans the home teams are not good enough imo for it to be a facter in addition to the away teams being far better than the home teams in these games. We will see. Good luck all.

[/ QUOTE ]
The logic that, "this time it's different" in regards to Browns/Bucs/Titans/<Insert Large Home Dog> has proceeded many examples of big home dogs covering the spread. Good luck, though.

[CutCreator]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Based on my picks this is a valid point, however not for the Browns. I am aware of home field, however I guess where we differ is in a game like Saints vs Bucs, Bengals vs Browns, and maybe even Colts vs Titans the home teams are not good enough imo for it to be a facter in addition to the away teams being far better than the home teams in these games. We will see. Good luck all.

[/ QUOTE ]
The logic that, "this time it's different" in regards to Browns/Bucs/Titans/<Insert Large Home Dog> has proceeded many examples of big home dogs covering the spread. Good luck, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

That maybe why I am a noob and my past two years of beating the NFL are a fluke/heater.

But I cant see putting a blanket over all home dogs and never bet against them.

Im in a tough spot here, because alot of the generalizations like this from the veterans in my short experience are not what i have seen. so while they may be correct, its hard to go against how you have been picking since it has been yielded the desired results.

[psuasskicker]

How many people in this thread used the word "lock" regarding NO -3 and Cinci -6.5? I lost count midway through the thread.

- C -

[rsigley]

[ QUOTE ]
How many people in this thread used the word "lock" regarding NO -3 and Cinci -6.5? I lost count midway through the thread.

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]

i only count one for each

one guy said saints were a lock 3x and someone called bengals a "mortal lock"

[CutCreator]

i am more than willing to take any heat that comes with calling the Bengals a lock. I utter the word lock maybe 3 times a year, and if the Bengals dont cover, I will never utter it again. I picked the Saints but didnt consider them a lock, nor the colts, but they look pretty good right now.

[TomG]

To be fair, last week the big public favorites all covered (Seattle/New England/Minnesota). This week the public is getting crushed. Nothing is a lock. New Orleans could also have crushed Tampa Bay and you'd think you were a genius. The point is that you can't draw any conclusions from a few week's worth of results. Looking back over many seasons, you'll see big home dogs covering the spread greater than 50%. That doesn't mean it's +EV to bet them blindly... it just indicates that if there is value it will likely be in betting the dog. When you see something like...

1) Big home dog
2) Lots of public money coming in on the favorite
3) The spread moves a small/moderate amount and the public is still on the favorite

Then you have potential ingredients for a fade the public type bet. If you bet the dog, you'll be rooting for the same side as your bookie. And in general that is a good side to be on.

[MacGuyV]

Yah but only 1 of those teams last week was a road fav.
Also was Minnesota really a more popular pick than St. Louis & Philly? That's hard to believe just based on my casual media observations thru the week.

[CutCreator]

[ QUOTE ]
To be fair, last week the big public favorites all covered (Seattle/New England/Minnesota). This week the public is getting crushed. Nothing is a lock. New Orleans could also have crushed Tampa Bay and you'd think you were a genius. The point is that you can't draw any conclusions from a few week's worth of results. Looking back over many seasons, you'll see big home dogs covering the spread greater than 50%. That doesn't mean it's +EV to bet them blindly... it just indicates that if there is value it will likely be in betting the dog. When you see something like...

1) Big home dog
2) Lots of public money coming in on the favorite
3) The spread moves a small/moderate amount and the public is still on the favorite

Then you have potential ingredients for a fade the public type bet. If you bet the dog, you'll be rooting for the same side as your bookie. And in general that is a good side to be on.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah the above happened with the Colts and Bengals lines. I will never use the term lock again. I am stunned at how bad the Bengals D is, i mean I thought it was bad, but this is beyond bad. I should have given the Titans a little more respect, and have been overvaluing the Saints. They have serious problems. Im still not sold on the Bucs. Hopefully the 4pm games are kinder. Im not going to make any more bets today and regroup.