Phil Ivey vs. Jman 300/600

[Futtocked]

who is Jman?

[JMa]

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jesus christ just when i thought ppl couldnt get more stupid

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Judging by your past posts, which seem to consist largely of one-line post equivalents of grunts, you're not exactly Einstein yourself. And if you want to compare graduate degrees, I'd be more than happy to do so, sport.

As far as my post to which you responded so eloquently, Ivey is in fact up on Aba in the HU games that I've seen and he has a reputation as being one of the top players in the world. That being the case, my statement that Jman must be really good if he's +ev against Ivey seems to be accurate to me. Of course, I seriously doubt that JMAn is in fact +ev against Ivey, but I like JMan so I didn't want to say so outright.


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case in point

[SGspecial]

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Basically, yes, but not exactly. Still, many top online players feel that it doesn't apply to them.

I'd be interested to see what Phil G's take is on this discussion/phenomenon.

tc

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comment from the rail: there's also an article in this month's 2p2 magazine (The Science of Tilt... by Jay McCauley) which might have some bearing on your discussion.

[sapol]

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The first time and not the last time I remember hearing Phil Ivey's name was in an article where Phil Helmuth said he taking seven card stud leasons from Ivey.

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interesting...link?

[GSykes]

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who is Jman?

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Andy Beal

[IHaveStrong9]

Jay Man

[Alobar]

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who is Jman?

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Andy Beal

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Im glad to see we couldnt keep an actually good NVG thread going for long, well done!! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Jman28]

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In particular, his stop-loss strategy and tendency to buy in short means you're VERY unlikely to take him for a big score. He quits as soon as he starts to lose.

So why does anyone play him?

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You're right. Ivey has figured out a stop loss strategy that makes it -EV to play him. Unexploitable.

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If you're being ironic, I don't care.

The guy quits when he's down at most 100k , what you going to do? Your losses will be bigger than your wins.

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Stop loss strategy's are only good if you play worse when losing.



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I disagree with this part. There are other considerations here that people rarely consider. These are mostly image related and it's hard for me to accurately explain them but I'm pretty sure they do exist. I've always quit playing HU when i lost a couple buyins and I can't emphasize how much that has helped me. Simply put, it's just really hard to play anyone, much less a WCP, when he has the momentum in the match.

tc

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I probably shouldn't have made a statement that brief and absolute. I mostly was trying to point out that the way jim was describing it was incorrect. He was explaining it like an 'unexploitable' gambling strategy like martingale or something.

I do however, think it's mostly a matter of whether you play worse (or your opponent plays better). I think the momentum that most people talk about is a combination of people playing worse when they're stuck, better when they're winning, and a bit of psychological illusion.

I might be wrong on this but I remember studying about it in a bayesian probability class. Someone did an analysis of a ton of NBA data and found that a player making his last shot or last 5 shots made him no more or less likely to make his next. It just feels like people heat up because of variance and selective memory.

I do think stop losses are very important against great players because I think almost everyone plays worse stuck and better when winning, whether they know it or not.

I do understand how momentum makes people feel like they can snap off more bluffs or bluff more themselves, but those are all just strategy adjustments, and not necessarily good ones (or bad ones). Great players should already be bluffing and bluff-snapping at good frequencies. If your opponent makes an adjustment based on him gaining momentum, and you can see and counter it, you would increase your edge.

[Jman28]

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I'm sure Jman thinks he's +EV against Ivey because of the stakes, 300/600 doesn't bother Ivey that much and it often reflects in his play. If they played in another setting and higher stakes I think Jman would be more humble about his EV. Nevertheless I'm not saying he would be -EV.

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It has nothing to do with the stakes. Ivey has a game tailored to beat up on weaker players, but it creates some leaks against stronger ones. I'm an online HU 100-200bb specialist pretty much.

He's obviously a very smart guy and great player.

I certainly didn't mean to brag or put Ivey's game down. It should be obvious that I think I'm +EV though when I play someone. I don't play when I don't think I have an edge. (As many people love to point out how I never play anyone good HU)

g2g play ultimate frisbee!! I'll answer any questions later tonight, and maybe post some interesting hands.

[IHaveStrong9]

Jman, would you mind going into more detail on just exactly Ivey's leaks are against strong players?