Heyman: Miggy is on the block. - Page 10

Reup Gang · #91 11-07-2007, 01:23 AM

miggy is expected to earn $12 mil in arb this year. that means 09 will be around $14 mil. and then he's a fa, one of the best fas in the history of baseball. lol @ red sox having to give up two of their very best prospects -- which is the only thing that will get cabrera -- and then having to move cab to 1b where he's less valuable, and then having to pay him prolly $20m/yr as a FA.

makes much more sense for nyy than bos.

oh yeah, in what world will lowell make more money than cab?

NT! · #92 11-07-2007, 01:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]

oh yeah, in what world will lowell make more money than cab?

[/ QUOTE ]

mike lowell will probably earn in the 14-16 range next season, unless he gives boston a discount or something. cabrera, as you stated, is projected to earn around 12.

[ QUOTE ]
lol @ red sox having to give up two of their very best prospects -- which is the only thing that will get cabrera -- and then having to move cab to 1b where he's less valuable, and then having to pay him prolly $20m/yr as a FA.

[/ QUOTE ]

suppose the red sox give up two prospects for cabrera and sign him at your projected salary. say they give him a moderate raise through his arb years in exchange for a slight discount over the next few (pretty standard) for a total of 90MM / 5 years (avg of 18MM)

cabrera's projected MORP (per BP) over that same time period is in the $125 million range. in other words, the sox would be getting more than their money's worth on one of the best RH hitters in the league. even if they extended him on the spot at 20MM/yr for 5 years they'd be getting a bargain.

in other words, LOL at you thinking that paying miguel cabrera 20M / year isn't a good deal for the sox.

Reup Gang · #93 11-07-2007, 01:39 AM

except you're not accounting the massive MORP the prospects they would have to give up would earn.

i doubt lowell gets 14-16 mil. how many people in baseball make that much? teams aren't THAT stupid. that would baiscally guarantee a-rod getting 30+ mil for 8 years.

two other things: cabrera's MORP right now is assuming he's at 3b. but he'll be at 1b.

that and ellsbury's MORP is 56 million.

NT! · #94 11-07-2007, 02:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]

except you're not accounting the massive MORP the prospects they would have to give up would earn.

[/ QUOTE ]

a lot of those prospects are blocked. a lot of prospects flame out. plus, you have to look at what is readily available vs. what is scarce. one of the hardest things in the league to land is a RH power hitter in his prime, playing for a salary that is actually below his MORP. i can think of only a handful in the league right now, and almost none of them are available.

big market teams don't maximize their MORP surpluses because you can't compete every year just relying on rookies and arb-year guys. you can be good at times on a short payroll (like the rockies were this year) but fans of big market teams are not going to tolerate a bunch of down years while you replenish your system or deal with prospects who flame out / start badly.

masterson's projected MORP would be in the neighborhood of 20MM right now up through his arb years. ellsbury's is around 55. lester: 18. none of these guys are untouchable. you could give up all three of those guys and cabrera is still worth more, plus he has a higher marginal value because the extra, elite WARP levels he provides are more likely to put the team over the hump, into the playoffs or towards a championship, etc. look at some of nate silver's writing on marginal MORP values of star players for contending teams for an explanation.

if cabrera for lester + ellsbury is on the table, the sox do it in a heartbeat.

NT! · #95 11-07-2007, 02:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]

i doubt lowell gets 14-16 mil. how many people in baseball make that much?

[/ QUOTE ]

ummm, a lot? hell jake westbrook makes that much. j.d. freaking drew makes that much. carlos delgado made 14.5 last year. richie [censored] sexson made 15MM. so did jim thome, curt schilling, bartolo colon, lots of people.

i'm not saying he deserves it, but if he wants it he'll get it.

NT! · #96 11-07-2007, 02:10 AM

also, cabrera is so bad defensively that i doubt his MORP changes much between 3B and 1B / LF. it's a non-issue for the sox anyway since their current 1B can play 3B way better than cabrera.

EDIT: also, crisp and ellsbury have virtually the same projected value over that time. if people were saying 'give up crisp and lester for cabrera' everyone would rush to say 'of course the sox do that.' but since it's one of these super-hyped PROSPECTS that you're not supposed to give up anymore, we can't do it. you shouldn't give up top prospects for marginal, overpriced veterans. you SHOULD give them up for cost-effective, proven studs in their prime.

James282 · #97 11-07-2007, 02:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
also, cabrera is so bad defensively that i doubt his MORP changes much between 3B and 1B / LF. it's a non-issue for the sox anyway since their current 1B can play 3B way better than cabrera.

EDIT: also, crisp and ellsbury have virtually the same projected value over that time. if people were saying 'give up crisp and lester for cabrera' everyone would rush to say 'of course the sox do that.' but since it's one of these super-hyped PROSPECTS that you're not supposed to give up anymore, we can't do it. you shouldn't give up top prospects for marginal, overpriced veterans. you SHOULD give them up for cost-effective, proven studs in their prime.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. Ellsbury is so ridiculously overrated at this point(which is saying something, because he is quite valuable). But I mean really - The Sox don't need Lester and the difference between Cabrera and Ellsbury is hardly quantifiable. Ellsbury is a nice little player in a huge market who ran hot at the right time. Cabrera is a top 5-10 player who gets no respect because of the team he plays for. He ought to command much more than Ellsbury and Lester, and I think that if he is traded Ellsbury and Lester will look like the [censored] on the shoe of whoever the Marlins get.

James

kyleb · #98 11-07-2007, 02:41 AM

Definitely. If Ellsbury and Lester is all it costs to get Cabrera (who will absolutely crush the ball in Fenway, BTW), the Red Sox will do it instantly. However, I'm sure Colletti will offer Kershaw/X for him.

HAVE I MENTIONED IT SHOULD BE A CRIME TO DO WHAT COLLETTI IS DOING TO THE DODGERS

hoyasnaxa · #99 11-07-2007, 03:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

i doubt lowell gets 14-16 mil. how many people in baseball make that much?

[/ QUOTE ]

ummm, a lot? hell jake westbrook makes that much. j.d. freaking drew makes that much. carlos delgado made 14.5 last year. richie [censored] sexson made 15MM. so did jim thome, curt schilling, bartolo colon, lots of people.

i'm not saying he deserves it, but if he wants it he'll get it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most projections for lowell have him in the 4 year, 40 million dollar range. Sadly I think it will be much more than that.

NT! · #**100** 11-07-2007, 04:16 AM

agree w/ kyleb, i think ultimately if the sox want cabrera the marlins will either want buchholz or like 4 good prospects. they would have limited interest in lowrie due to hanley being such a stud, unless they considered moving him to 3B.

honestly i would rather give up ellsbury, lester and some minor leaguers than make buchholz the centerpiece of a package. i wonder if lester, ellsbury, bowden would get it done? that would make me sick but i think we'd have to do it.