PokerFink's NFC Rankings (Week 1)

[tdarko]

Fink- I know SOS is something that has to be talked about but in the NFL where so many teams (mainly the NFC) can legitimately make a push in the playoffs and so many teams are thought to be good in the preseason and suck throughout the year (Dolphins, Carolina, and Pitt last year, Wash could be on this list every year--the Jets were a surprise and even New Orleans wouldn't have boosted any SOS's in the preseason), is citing SOS really that important? I mean if Dallas' SOS is #2 right now, that could seriously change by the end of the year right? It isn't like college football where you can look at a schedule and say, "OK...LSU, Florida, Auburn, etc. are all going to be tough games" and know that by the end of the year that these teams won't be looking at terrible years.

I guess my point is I just don't see how you can look at let's say a week 13 game and determine if that is going to be a tough game. There are a handful of teams that are dominant every year and then after that you really can't know before the season.

[vixticator]

Midweek during NFL season is so boring! NFC game I am looking most forward to this week is my Deetroit Lions against Vikings. So want to drink Kool-Aid but I know better, think Lions are in for 6-10 give or take a game. As much as I hate the Vikings they seem one of those teams that decent QB play could get them into playoffs. Still not sure about their pass defense, ATL is pathetic after all. With the Packers moving in right direction too maybe the NFC North won't be a joke in a few years.

[PokerFink]

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Minn last year had a good defense--the best in the NFL at stopping the run and top 10 overall but couldn't move the chains which equaled an average at best season. After week 1 all you can go by is what you watch and what I saw was a lot of what Minn looked like last year--this team isn't one of the best teams in the NFC

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Agreed. Defense looked the same, Tavaris and the offense was mediocre, although Peterson looked great. But hey, they're only 10th - no one is crowning their asses. They skipped over New York and St. Louis due to injuries as much as anything.

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Also, I am hearing on the radio that Barber could be getting more carries this week. I do think that the overwhelming man-crushes on Barber over Julius is a little unfair though--don't get me wrong Barber is a bench back on my fantasy team but I think a lot of the comparisons made between the two are ridiculous.

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What do you mean? From what I've seen of Dallas last year and this week, Barber is clearly the better back. Do you think people just go overboard by saying Barber>>>>>>Jones when it's really only Barber>Jones?

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Fink- I know SOS is something that has to be talked about but in the NFL where so many teams (mainly the NFC) can legitimately make a push... is citing SOS really that important?

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This is from my last rankings of 2006:

"I predicted the Eagles would win the division due to an easier schedule. Philly, New York and Dallas all went 8-6 in common games. Philly won their two other games (Green Bay and San Fran) to finish 10-6 while New York lost their two other games (Chicago and Seattle) to finish 8-8 and Dallas went 1-1 in their other games (Arizona and Detroit) to finish 9-7."

So, yes, looking at SOS is important.

What you said about SOS changing over the course of the season is true. But compare the schedules of Dallas and Green Bay, two potential playoff teams. They have a lot of similar games; both teams finished second so they play Carolina and St. Louis. The two divisions play each other. But Green Bay gets an extra game against Detroit and Minnesota, while Dallas gets an extra gamea gainst New York and Washington. Green Bay gets the NFC West with Oakland, Kansas City and Denver, while Dallas gets the NFC East with Miami, Buffalo and the Jets. (The other games are Philly/Chicago and New England/San Diego, so those cancel out).

Green Bay's schedule is a whole lot easier. Think of the schedule in terms of win equity - in every game, you have some chance between 1% and 99% to win. Green Bay's easier schedule means that, over the season, they have more win equity than Dallas. Dallas might actually be the better team (too early to say for sure), but Green Bay has more equity over the course of the season imo. Hence, Green Bay is 5th, Dallas is 9th.

[hoyasnaxa]

[PokerFink]

I feel like one of those really hot girls with huge boobs that wear low-cut shirts and then get mad at you for looking at their boobs.

Stop looking at my boobs! My face is up here! I'm smart, I have things to say! I am a human being, not a piece of... hey!!! STOP THAT! I'M UP HERE!!!!

[hoyasnaxa]

Ive made my choice.

[MacGuyV]

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What you said about SOS changing over the course of the season is true. But compare the schedules of Dallas and Green Bay, two potential playoff teams. They have a lot of similar games; both teams finished second so they play Carolina and St. Louis. The two divisions play each other. But Green Bay gets an extra game against Detroit and Minnesota, while Dallas gets an extra gamea gainst New York and Washington. Green Bay gets the NFC West with Oakland, Kansas City and Denver, while Dallas gets the NFC East with Miami, Buffalo and the Jets. (The other games are Philly/Chicago and New England/San Diego, so those cancel out).

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To me this is a pretty good example of what he's talking about.
I don't think it's anywhere near a slam dunk that based on these games, GB will have played a much easier schedule by the end of the year.

As bad as KC & Oakland are, would Buffalo or Miami or even the Jets w/out Pennington be favored against them on the road? Maybe Oakland I guess. Washington @ Minnesota? I doubt it.

[PokerFink]

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To me this is a pretty good example of what he's talking about.
I don't think it's anywhere near a slam dunk that based on these games, GB will have played a much easier schedule by the end of the year.

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Nothing is ever a slam dunk in week 1 of the NFL season. We're trying to make predictions, right? And if you look at those schedules, Green Bay's certainly looks easier. You have to factor that in. It's all incomplete information and assumptions; you do the best you can.

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As bad as KC & Oakland are, would Buffalo or Miami or even the Jets w/out Pennington be favored against them on the road? Maybe Oakland I guess. Washington @ Minnesota? I doubt it.

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Buffalo, Miami and the Jets would all be favored over KC and Oakland on a nuetral field, which is how you should compare it. Saying they wouldn't be favored on the road is just skewing the data in your favor.

I mean, look at their schedules side by side.

COMMON GAMES

vs. Washington
vs. Minnesota
vs. Philadelpha
@ NY Giants
@ Chicago
@ Detroit

ESSENTIALLY EVEN GAMES: (Dallas' game listed first)

vs. New England / vs. San Diego
@ Philadelphia / vs. Chicago

COMMON OPPONENTS:

vs. St. Louis / @ St. Louis
@ Carolina / vs. Carolina
vs. Green Bay / @ Dallas

WHATS LEFT:

vs. New York Giants / vs. Detroit - Advantage GB
@ Washington / @ Minnesota - Advantage GB
@ Miami / @ Kansas City - Advantage GB
@ Buffalo / vs. Oakland - Advantage GB
vs. New York Jets / @ Denver - Advantage DAL

Come on, you can't tell me that Green Bay doesn't have a significantly easier schedule.

[lippy]

WTF. I'm a homer, but Minnesota is not good. Their defense is good, maybe great, but their offense is pathetic.

[MacGuyV]

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Buffalo, Miami and the Jets would all be favored over KC and Oakland on a nuetral field, which is how you should compare it. Saying they wouldn't be favored on the road is just skewing the data in your favor.


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Of course. The point is, if the difference among these different opponents is that slight, I think it's reasonable to think that whoever turns out to be the better team between GB/Dallas will play a bigger role than their schedules. But if you think GB & Dallas are equal that's fine.