**** ALDS GAME 4 Tribe/Yanks (Byrd vs. Wang)****

[Victor]

ugh, forgot about the kelly shoppach effect. garko>>>>>>shoppach.

[Hollywade]

[ QUOTE ]
I just can't see him letting Carmona sit on the pine for a possible game 5.

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely. This has all the makings of a decision Eric Wedge will regret for the rest of his life.

[Hollywade]

[ QUOTE ]
The key to this is that Fausto gets to start on normal rest for Game 5 or not play at all. The decision would be closer if Game 4 and 5 were today and tomorrow, where you would be choosing to either start both players on short rest or pitching Sabathia at full strength on Game 5, but that's not the case.

[/ QUOTE ]


Brilliant! Thank you very much. I agree that the off day Tuesday is a huge factor in this decision.

This also might be my first post ever in "Sporting Events" to receive any love whatsoever. I'm excited.

NOW [censored] START SABATHIA DAMMIT!

[Kneel B4 Zod]

teams starting a SP on short rest have lost 17 of their last 21 in Division series play (over the last 10 years)

[Hollywade]

[ QUOTE ]
What about Option C, Situation 1: NY wins both games 4 and 5?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is covered by Option A/Situation 3 and Option B/Situation 3. Did you even read them?

[Hollywade]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the Sox match up better with NY than Cleveland, and it's more fun.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. I'm sick of Yankees vs. Red Sox and I think a Cleveland vs. Boston ALCS would be fantastic. I just hope Eric Wedge doesn't [censored] it up.

[Hollywade]

[ QUOTE ]
Pitching Byrd today isn't horrible because the Indians only have to win one game. If they were down 2-1 here, they would pitch CC short tonight and Fausto game 5 obv.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes sense, but I still would like to see Wedge go for the jugular here.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

[ QUOTE ]
teams starting a SP on short rest have lost 17 of their last 21 in Division series play (over the last 10 years)

[/ QUOTE ]

I just looked briefly in BBTN, and the 'short rest' argument is somewhat debunked there (pitchers on short rest did worse, but not A LOT worse than on regular rest).

however, I don't think they factored in how much the opposing offense matters (ie it's probably easier to get away with short rest in the regular season vs an 'average' team than against an elite offense), and they didn't consider ALDS/ALCS macro strategy.

I still think starting Byrd/CC is the right move. if down 2-1, then CC/Carmona would probably be the right move, b/c the ALCS concerns are largely out the window. but to not consider the ALCS at all when up 2-1 is folly.

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
So, do most people think that CC on short rest is actually better than Byrd for tonights game?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. If they disagreed, then your analysis would be correct re: ALDS in a vacuum.

[ QUOTE ]
putting your best possible option into each game has to be the optimal solution, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's kind of ambiguous what you mean by "best possible option," but the answer is pretty simple: you want the combination of pitchers that has the highest probability of winning the series. For example, you would be willing to choose a crappy game 1 pitcher who'd be only a little worse than your short rest studs if resting the stars causes them to become far more dominant in future games.

Here the situation is that CCLong > CCShort, but Byrd <<< Carmona. So CCLong+Byrd < CCShort+Carmona.



However, I don't think Wedge should be playing the ALDS in a vacuum; I think he should maximize the probability of winning the WS, and setting up Sabathia to go in game 1 of the ALCS may well be the best way. I haven't run any numbers on it.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sick of Yankees vs. Red Sox

[/ QUOTE ]

hasn't been one since 2004