The $1 Billion Dollar - 700 Mile fence on the Mexican Border and more

[bkholdem]

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Why should I beleive that the us wall will have anything in common with the german wall?

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We don't know. At this point it is pure speculation on how successful a border wall will be. If a Ivy-League PhD professor received a $4.5m grant to study the success of a US border wall his results would be......mere speculation. My speculation is much more cost effective.....

I offerred the Berlin Wall as an historical example that walls can be successful in keeping people from crossing borders. With the Berlin Wall, sometimes sysmpathetic guards would allow people to escape into West Berlin. I'm sure there will be sympathetic border agents that will allow illegals to cross into the USA.

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If everyone just throws statistical comments around with no basis in fact the discussion is rather silly.

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Your confusing the term 'statistics' with the term 'estimate'. I am confident that I have taken more college course in Statistics than most people on this forum. Also, I am entitled to my opinions on the effectiveness of a 2000 mile border wall. You disagree with my estimate of 98%. Fine.

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Do you understand what I mean by a 'default postion'? What I mean is you assume you are right and someone has to 'prove' you wrong. Well if i assume i am right and make you prove me wrong and you assume you are right and make me prove you wrong, how is there productive discussion?

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I'm confident in my beliefs. If someone disagrees then let them make a counter argument. Furthermore, let them support that counter argument with examples, stats, and other forms of evidence. I offerred the example of the Berlin Wall as EMPIRICAL evidence that a 2000 mile border wall would be quite successful.
I am *NOT* sure how successful a 700 mile border wall will be.

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What was the punnishment for crossing the berlin wall? It's been a while since i took HS history but I think it was more severe than being sent back home. lol

[kurto]

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99% of all political discussions are opinion.
What separates people are some backed their assertions with evidence and some do not. Empirical/historical evidence is better than no evidence.....

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And the trolls just make up statistics. Like %25 of all prisoners are illegal immigrants. Voter IDs will reduce votes for Democrats by 2% (or whatever the stat you pulled out of your rump). A wall will reduce roughly 98% of all border crossings.

Source of all these numbers-- you made them up.

[bkholdem]

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If this thread teaches you nothing else, let it teach you that you suck at estimating.

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Feel free to express you estimate of the success of a 2000 mile border wall.

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Are they planning to build a 2000 mile wall? If not (i recollect you said they are building a 700 mile wall) it is mearly an exercise in theory. I can estimate the effectiveness of an invisible wall that electrocutes any living thing that touches it but it makes no difference in reality if it is not going to be built.

And in order to assess the effectiveness of the wall they are actually going to build we have to look at the big picture and not a wall in isolation. We as a nation can not prevent people from coming here as our borders on land and sea are quite large. We also have a lot of traffic moving across borders. Boatloads and plane loads and truck loads of drugs continue to get here and we have spent hundreds of millions? on the drug war over decades.

It is all a political game. And it is costing us bookoo $$.

[kurto]

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We don't know. At this point it is pure speculation on how successful a border wall will be. If a Ivy-League PhD professor received a $4.5m grant to study the success of a US border wall his results would be......mere speculation. My speculation is much more cost effective.....


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Which is more effective? Asking an expert to speculate on the subject or some internet troll who regularly rants on stuff he knows nothing about?

Your speculation is worthless.

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I offerred the Berlin Wall as an historical example that walls can be successful in keeping people from crossing borders.

[/ QUOTE ] Comparing the two is pointless unless the walls are set up under similar conditions. Are they both equally guarded? Do both use lethal deterrents?

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Your confusing the term 'statistics' with the term 'estimate'. I am confident that I have taken more college course in Statistics than most people on this forum. Also, I am entitled to my opinions on the effectiveness of a 2000 mile border wall. You disagree with my estimate of 98%. Fine.



[/ QUOTE ] You throw numbers around as if they're facts and then when called on it, they become your estimates. You would think someone with your fine college education would realize that arbitrarily making up numbers like you do is meaningless.

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I'm confident in my beliefs When I make something up, I tend to belief it is correct. . If someone disagrees then let them make a counter argument. Furthermore, let them support that counter argument with examples, stats, and other forms of evidence. Just because I don't use real stats or evidence doesn't mean that I'm wrong... its the burden of everyone else to show that what I make up isn't valid.

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[Felix_Nietzsche]

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I happen to know many (dozens) of illegal immigrants from Brazil. My understanding is the standard fee is 10K to be smuggled here from Brazil. It is also my understanding that almost everyone pays the fee with funds borrowed from family members already here. Then they work their a55es off and pay back the 10k and start to make a good living for themselves by continuing to work 70hrs a week or so.

Didn't the berlin wall stop people not because it was a structure that interfered with individuals walking from one location to another, but because there would be severe consequences if caught?

The consequences of 'being caught' climing our wall will remain basically the same, they get sent home, whoopie do da. If I can climb a wall and increase my inccome 10 fold I will do it. The US govt cant stop drugs. We all know that. A wall without a sensible immigration policy will not stop the flow of people unless men armed with guns ordered to shoot people on the wall are posted every 1/2 mile or so.

Welfare continues to exist, free medical care continues to exist, immigrants or not. With the wall, are our taxes going to go up or down? If up, how do we 'benefit'? And save the drivel about stopping terrorists because there are plenty of ways for a handful of people with significant funding to get here, they do not have to cross a dessert on foot.

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This is an intelligent post. You provided counter examples and empirical evidence to support your position. Kurto!, Cardcounter!, Whiskey!.....Pay attention to this guy!

As for the Berlin Wall, it was physical barrier and there were armed guards with orders to shoot on sight. But the Berlin Wall was built with 1950s technology. The border wall will be built with the latest cameras and survalence technology. This is an advantage the Berlin Wall did not have. Obviously the border patrol is not going to shoot people on sight.

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The consequences of 'being caught' climing our wall will remain basically the same, they get sent home, whoopie do da. If I can climb a wall and increase my inccome 10 fold I will do it.

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It cost money to cross the border. Many of those who can not afford the upfront costs either won't try. I base this opinion on a TV interview I saw 3 months ago of a Mexican man who said since 9/11 it has not been worth trying to cross the border. I aslo base this opinion on the fact that coyote fees have gone up which to me is evidence the border security is improving.

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Welfare continues to exist, free medical care continues to exist, immigrants or not. With the wall, are our taxes going to go up or down?

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I think it will be a wash. Welfare and medical costs will decrease but prices of produce/construction will go up. Another benefit is employment among uneducated blacks will increase. Educated blacks have been hurt the most by illegal immigration. If we curb illegal immigration, I believe black employment will improve and crime will go down.

[bkholdem]

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I happen to know many (dozens) of illegal immigrants from Brazil. My understanding is the standard fee is 10K to be smuggled here from Brazil. It is also my understanding that almost everyone pays the fee with funds borrowed from family members already here. Then they work their a55es off and pay back the 10k and start to make a good living for themselves by continuing to work 70hrs a week or so.

Didn't the berlin wall stop people not because it was a structure that interfered with individuals walking from one location to another, but because there would be severe consequences if caught?

The consequences of 'being caught' climing our wall will remain basically the same, they get sent home, whoopie do da. If I can climb a wall and increase my inccome 10 fold I will do it. The US govt cant stop drugs. We all know that. A wall without a sensible immigration policy will not stop the flow of people unless men armed with guns ordered to shoot people on the wall are posted every 1/2 mile or so.

Welfare continues to exist, free medical care continues to exist, immigrants or not. With the wall, are our taxes going to go up or down? If up, how do we 'benefit'? And save the drivel about stopping terrorists because there are plenty of ways for a handful of people with significant funding to get here, they do not have to cross a dessert on foot.

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This is an intelligent post. You provided counter examples and empirical evidence to support your position. Kurto!, Cardcounter!, Whiskey!.....Pay attention to this guy!

As for the Berlin Wall, it was physical barrier and there were armed guards with orders to shoot on sight. But the Berlin Wall was built with 1950s technology. The border wall will be built with the latest cameras and survalence technology. This is an advantage the Berlin Wall did not have. Obviously the border patrol is not going to shoot people on sight.

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The consequences of 'being caught' climing our wall will remain basically the same, they get sent home, whoopie do da. If I can climb a wall and increase my inccome 10 fold I will do it.

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It cost money to cross the border. Many of those who can not afford the upfront costs either won't try. I base this opinion on a TV interview I saw 3 months ago of a Mexican man who said since 9/11 it has not been worth trying to cross the border. I aslo base this opinion on the fact that coyote fees have gone up which to me is evidence the border security is improving.

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Welfare continues to exist, free medical care continues to exist, immigrants or not. With the wall, are our taxes going to go up or down?

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I think it will be a wash. Welfare and medical costs will decrease but prices of produce/construction will go up. Another benefit is employment among uneducated blacks will increase. Educated blacks have been hurt the most by illegal immigration. If we curb illegal immigration, I believe black employment will improve and crime will go down.

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I believe PVN will give me a free pony. Beliefs are sometimes called fantasies.

[Superfluous Man]

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As for the Berlin Wall, it was physical barrier and there were armed guards with orders to shoot on sight. But the Berlin Wall was built with 1950s technology. The border wall will be built with the latest cameras and survalence technology. This is an advantage the Berlin Wall did not have. Obviously the border patrol is not going to shoot people on sight.

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Except even with the most advanced surveillance technology, orders to "go back" are eventually enforced at the point of a gun. A wall will lead to nothing more than a new, Mexican generation of Peter Fechters.

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I think it will be a wash. Welfare and medical costs will decrease but prices of produce/construction will go up. Another benefit is employment among uneducated blacks will increase. Educated blacks have been hurt the most by illegal immigration. If we curb illegal immigration, I believe black employment will improve and crime will go down.

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So, if you think it will be "a wash," i.e. that there's no economic benefit to restricting immigration then you're advocating taking away people's rights simply for the sake of taking away their rights. "You have fewer human rights because you were born on that side of the Rio Grande" is abhorrent, but that's basically what you're saying.

Also, please provide empirical evidence for your "restricting immigration will help black people" argument, which, by the way, smacks of latent racism (you know, by implying that black people are uneducated criminals).

[Copernicus]

I dont agree that the economics will be a wash. I think illegal immigration has far greater costs than benefits, and reducing it will have positive economic impact.

However, to your post, what "rights" would be violated by a fence/wall?

[Felix_Nietzsche]

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So, if you think it will be "a wash," i.e. that there's no economic benefit to restricting immigration then you're advocating taking away people's rights simply for the sake of taking away their rights. "You have fewer human rights because you were born on that side of the Rio Grande" is abhorrent, but that's basically what you're saying.

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Mexico sucks. The USA is better. If I was Mexican I would enter the USA legally or illegally. The difference would be is that I would be much more respectful and grateful to the USA.

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Also, please provide empirical evidence for your "restricting immigration will help black people" argument, which, by the way, smacks of latent racism (you know, by implying that black people are uneducated criminals).

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Gladly....
http://standardnewspapers.com/News/a...7786&sID=3
http://www.nationalreview.com/commen...0604190611.asp
"The study reveals that the occupations with the highest percentage of illegal immigrants are the occupations that also have the highest unemployment rates for the native born. These same occupations just happen to be among the ones that traditionally have employed the highest percentages of black workers, e.g., building cleaning and maintenance, food preparation, and construction."

Hmmmmm.....I seem to have forgotten where I got this link. This will show stats on the number of blacks in US prisons vs other races. And please don't try to tell me they are all innocent and these numbers don't reflect true crime rates by race.
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/pjim05.pdf
Blacks = 38.9% of the US prison population. And blacks represent around......12.9% of the US population. This is implies blacks are 3x times more likely to committ crimes. Don't believe me. Read the link yourself....

Attack my arguments if you like but please refrain from the ad hominem attacks......

[irvman21]

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As for the Berlin Wall, it was physical barrier and there were armed guards with orders to shoot on sight. But the Berlin Wall was built with 1950s technology. The border wall will be built with the latest cameras and survalence technology. This is an advantage the Berlin Wall did not have. Obviously the border patrol is not going to shoot people on sight.

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Except even with the most advanced surveillance technology, orders to "go back" are eventually enforced at the point of a gun. A wall will lead to nothing more than a new, Mexican generation of Peter Fechters.

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I think it will be a wash. Welfare and medical costs will decrease but prices of produce/construction will go up. Another benefit is employment among uneducated blacks will increase. Educated blacks have been hurt the most by illegal immigration. If we curb illegal immigration, I believe black employment will improve and crime will go down.

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So, if you think it will be "a wash," i.e. that there's no economic benefit to restricting immigration then you're advocating taking away people's rights simply for the sake of taking away their rights. "You have fewer human rights because you were born on that side of the Rio Grande" is abhorrent, but that's basically what you're saying.


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Even if it is a wash, the costs are disproportionately allocated. The top two quintiles of taxpayers in this country pay around 90% of the total federal income taxes. Increases to welfare costs due to illegal immigration are shouldered by primarily by these taxpayers. Do they receive 90% of the benefits due to illegal immigration?