Risk of Ruin over 7 events

[THAY3R]

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I dont want a flame war over this, and I am sure it has been debated ad nausaeum, so lets just say that I have more experience with live players and the intricacies of that game, and leave it at that

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Anyone who is both a successfull online player and a live player will say that live players are much much much worse.

[JohnnyGroomsTD]

Is that because there is more info to pick up from the bad players, i.e. tells, etc.??

[THAY3R]

No, it's just that players are worse.

[NickyC]

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No, it's just that players are worse.

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I'm by no means a high limit balla, but from what I've seen I have to agree with this. I've been making a decent sum of money for the past few months at the $20/40 sometimes $30/60 limit hold 'em LIVE games. As well, I'll play $10/20 limit omaha8 with a full kill and make alot of money at that live.
Online, I'm break even at best at $3/6 and $5/10 limit, and a slight winner at $.50/1.00 Omaha hi on Full Tilt poker.
This is of course a small sample size of both experience and games, but I avoid online as much as I can if I can get to a casino. I agree online players are better, and I'm not even playing top knotch talent online.

[NotTheDingo]

sickkkk burn on wolffund that this thread got bumped.look up this cash and that the dingo said was him and its wolfie.bet he's got 10+ accts just like maria gomez
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Another thought is you may like to look at the PLH events say the $2500 and $5000 as the low buy in NLH are absolutely crazy.

Last year I played in 7 smaller WPT, WSOP and Bellagio events.

I am a very regular NLH cash player and have a good spread of results over a long time.

From your information you are a WAY BETTER player than I with a higher +EV.

Anyway over the 7 events I played

$500 WPT Mirage - busted in 25 minutes

$1500 NLH WSOP 06 - busted after 8 hours after playing very well and getting hit by the deck

$2500 PLH WSOP 06 - cashed in 26th place for $6480

$1060 Bellagio II - bubbled

$750 WPT Borgata - played like a bloody goat

$2500 WPT BOrgata - busted after 7 hours

$120 Taj Mahal - placed 3rd for $850

Total Buy Ins = $7430
Cashes = $7330

Minor loss but here is the key in the PLH I WOULD HAVE BUSTED OUT if it were NLH at least 2 times before we made the money so if you are a really good player and want to avoid the more random luck associated with WSOP low $ buy ins look at the PLH and maybe the $5000 short handed NLH as these events attract better players and generally more generic play

Looking at your figures more analytically

Lets assume you are a really +EV tournamnent cash player (say like a James van Alstyne). Look at a distribution of your recent higher buy in events and use a statistical sample to give yourself a per event expectation, then use a binomial distribution to calculate your Risk of ruin. [eg At 0.8% per event and 7 events you would have a ror = 20% roughly]
Good luck

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[NickyC]

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sickkkk burn on wolffund that this thread got bumped.look up this cash and that the dingo said was him and its wolfie.bet he's got 10+ accts just like maria gomez
[ QUOTE ]
Another thought is you may like to look at the PLH events say the $2500 and $5000 as the low buy in NLH are absolutely crazy.

Last year I played in 7 smaller WPT, WSOP and Bellagio events.

I am a very regular NLH cash player and have a good spread of results over a long time.

From your information you are a WAY BETTER player than I with a higher +EV.

Anyway over the 7 events I played

$500 WPT Mirage - busted in 25 minutes

$1500 NLH WSOP 06 - busted after 8 hours after playing very well and getting hit by the deck

$2500 PLH WSOP 06 - cashed in 26th place for $6480

$1060 Bellagio II - bubbled

$750 WPT Borgata - played like a bloody goat

$2500 WPT BOrgata - busted after 7 hours

$120 Taj Mahal - placed 3rd for $850

Total Buy Ins = $7430
Cashes = $7330

Minor loss but here is the key in the PLH I WOULD HAVE BUSTED OUT if it were NLH at least 2 times before we made the money so if you are a really good player and want to avoid the more random luck associated with WSOP low $ buy ins look at the PLH and maybe the $5000 short handed NLH as these events attract better players and generally more generic play

Looking at your figures more analytically

Lets assume you are a really +EV tournamnent cash player (say like a James van Alstyne). Look at a distribution of your recent higher buy in events and use a statistical sample to give yourself a per event expectation, then use a binomial distribution to calculate your Risk of ruin. [eg At 0.8% per event and 7 events you would have a ror = 20% roughly]
Good luck

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lol, good work.