Poker After Dark thread (Week of 9/17 - Poker At Its Best)

[blankoblanco]

negreanu's final shove was fine. howard raised the button, then it went check-check-check, check-check-bet. daniel can easily have fold equity there, and he's got a good amount of outs if called. the fact that it's a winner-take-all format only justifies it more

[westhoff]

I don't know. Shoving is definitely fine I think. But I don't think he has a lot of fold equity as I think it's obvious that Howard has some sort of king or AA and is therefore calling everytime here. Obviously Howard could have something like 77 or AQ but I think he'd check again with those hands. I would've just folded, but I'm a tight ass.

[KSOT]

I can no longer stand watching Howard Lederer play. He takes sooooooooooo long to do anything, it kills me. Also, how many times can one guy get AA?

[JustCuz]

I noticed something weird during one hand of tonight's broadcast. When it was heads-up between Le and Lederer, there was the following hand:

Lederer: Ac6h
Le: Ah8c

After the turn, the board was Kd-5s-5d-As

Assuming there'd be a showdown, the hand would be a chop unless Howard rivered a 6 or Tuan rivered an 8. Each player had 3 outs to win the hand.

The weird part is that the on-screen odds showed Lederer as 7% to win and Le as 13% to win, which means 80% chance of a tie. But, if they each have the same number of outs, why is Le favorite over Lederer to win?

What's weirder is that cardplayer's odds calculator shows the same percentages.

Am I missing something?

[KSOT]

If a king falls their kickers play.

[JustCuz]

Ahh...well, there's still a lesson to be learned: Don't think about poker odds at 7:am on Saturday morning before you've had your coffee. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Thanks, KSOT.

[Big Syke]

I hate Chris Ferguson waving his hands.

Howard the Deck

But a pretty entertaining edition this week I thought.

[gregorio]

[ QUOTE ]
I hate Chris Ferguson waving his hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that was by far the worst part of this week's match.

[barryg1]

I talked to Tuan about some of the hands. He said he had a real good feel for everyone and he was 95% sure Howard had King Queen on the kings full hand. He said he wanted to fold and he would have folded if the camera hadn't seen his cards. He was thinking, "If I fold Kings full here amd I'm wrong, I'll be known as a big TV donkey, worse than when they said I was a luckbox for winning the WPT events."

He also knew Howard couldn't stand a reraise when he bluffed him off of two tens.

I asked Tuan why he didn't make a continuation bet with his AQ when three sevens flopped. He said they didn't show two hands where Erick didn't reraise him preflop with Jacks and with Kings and he felt Erick was always slowplaying against him. He sensed that Erick almost reraised before the flop, which may have been true, even though Tuan had the best hand.

Erick had been playing pretty snugly and Tuan thought his reads were good enough that he would not be bluffed very often. He almost paid off the river, but he decided Erick wasn't going to bluff him that hand ... and at that point he was right.

He also said Howard really held the deck and had Aces other times that weren't shown.

Also, Gus would have called Daniel with the A8 if Daniel hadn't let him see one card. Gus correctly deduced that Daniel would never let him turn over a card that paired that board, so that both cards had to be the same or Daniel would have to be bluffing. Gus make a great on-the-spot decision that Daniel wasn't bluffing.

In all fairness to Daniel, even though it probably cost him the pot, he was going out of his way to show that showing one card made the broadcast more interesting.

Barry