NL$200| QQ - Committed but his line is very strong!

[flytrap]

I don't see how someone with those stats could have TT or JJ. He didn't raise PF, which I'm 99% certain a 17/9 would have done, unless they were mixing it up for some reason. You have to check the turn here, and most likely call the river.

[QTip]

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If you are not willing to stack off on the turn (which is the same as stacking off on the river), then I don't think you should bet the turn.

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[Acevader]

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If you are not willing to stack off on the turn (which is the same as stacking off on the river), then I don't think you should bet the turn.

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But I am willing to stack off on the turn. If he c/r me again then I would reluctantly call. I have seen players make that play from time to time with a hand such as 1010 or JJ on this board. They panic that the flop raise was called and check to see what hero does. I then bet which commits them to the pot so they decide there and then whether they want to play for stacks with 1010-JJ. If they conclude they are happy to play they just get it in now so they can't doubt themselves if an ace or king hits the river. For this reason I'd reluctantly stack off on the turn after I've bet.

However, once they have called the turn bet and led the river they have taken a completely different line and one that, IMHO, provides me with additional information. 1010-JJ never takes this line IMHO because the river was as safe as they come. Therefore if he bets 1010-JJ he only gets called if tied or beat but crucially takes away any opportunity for hero to bet/bluff a lesser/non hand. The correct play at this river with 1010-JJ would be to check-call as a timid hero might even check behind with a higher pair. To lead the river when he clearly has no fold equity has to be for value and therefore has to have QQ beat. A check raise by him on the turn is usually going to be a similar strength hand (i.e. one that beats QQ) but may also be 1010-JJ just 'getting them in now'. For that reason calling a c/r AI on turn is different to calling a push.

I expect you'll come back and say 1010-JJ never c/r this turn. FWIW I consider myself a reasonable player and I do that sometimes. Recently I raised AK and against a tight opponent took an Axx wet flop. I led villain raised and I called. The river bricked the draws so I was really only beat by sets or a silly two pair. I didn't plan the hand to well and checked to villain who bet committing himself. I thought for a bit and concluded that he'd have to show me a set and so I put my money in there and then so that even if a draw hit the river I'd not bottle it. I don't view this as a value c/r as such (although some lesser hands may call) but rather an 'administrative c/r' (i.e. the stacks are going in so lets do it now). Unbelievably villain folded AK (and I believe him) because he figured I'd never come over the top of his commitment bet with anything less than AK. LOL, an added bonus I never expected from taking this line.

I'm expressing myself so badly here. I hope you can figure out what I'm trying to say and why I think committing on this turn is different to committing on this river. Finally, on the turn you still have one shot at two outs - clutching at straws but it all helps.

[Jeff76]

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But I am willing to stack off on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]I think this is your problem. I don't think you want to get it in on the turn. You are way behind his range with hands that he'll be willing to get it in on the turn with. Sure he MAY have TT/JJ and just be making a desperate final gasp at trying to win the pot, but in reality you are much more likely to be facing the stronger portion of his range.

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To lead the river when he clearly has no fold equity has to be for value and therefore has to have QQ beat.

[/ QUOTE ]This is likely true, but so is

"To check/raise the turn when he clearly has no fold equity has to be for value and therefore has to have QQ beat."

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I expect you'll come back and say 1010-JJ never c/r this turn.

[/ QUOTE ]Against your range TT/JJ SHOULDN'T c/r the turn for the same reasons it shouldn't call and then push the river. Which is different from saying he'll never do it- people do things all the time they shouldn't. That's where the profit is in poker.

But you really don't want to rely on villain making a bad play (or knowing he's committed and taking the "aw screw it- let's get the chips in" line) to get value from your hand.

I think you are failing to see how well defined your hand is and how easy it is for villain to play against you perfectly now. In that situation you really want to exercise pot control, because villain is only going to build a big pot with you when he has the best of it.

[GabyGaby]

I check back the turn and i call the bet pot on the river!

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Acevader]

Jeff, I take your points and don't disagree as such but I think you are maybe seeing things as a little too cut and dry. First off against Bil my range isn't as tight as you might think here. He near min-raised that flop. I call that with AK from time to time to play a turn especially since I believe he's the sort of player that will bottle it if he min-raises to take it down but is looked up. Also, having seemingly bottled it I might take a pop with AK on this turn for around the bet sized I made.

Also my pre-flop range will include SC's and SG's from time to time meaning I can sometimes have a draw or 9x here.

Also a lot of what you are saying, whilst fair comment, is based on results information or information we cannot know until after an event has happened.

In truth when I bet the turn I didn't expect to be check-raised a lot. Check-raising the flop and then trying to pull the same move on the turn is pretty rare and usually only attempted by a complete fish. So when I bet the turn it was primarily for value as I felt Bil either had a hand he was unsure of or had been caught with his hand in the till trying to take the flop cheap in the assumption that it missed my range (which is weighted towards broadway). Had he checked raised me I'd have had to make a decision at the time - I expect I'd have payed him off if he had it but I certainly hadn't planned to deal with a c/r when I made the bet. I expected him to fold or just call and I planned to value shove the river if he checked it. I also didn't expect or plan for him river pushing but when he did he tells me a lot about his hand. That's why I feel it's key to consider folding QQ despite being committed. Ironically by betting he failed to maximise.

So I'm not disagreeing with what you are saying but you seem to suggest that I shouldn't bet the turn in case he has a hand at the upper part of his range and goes for a check-raise. I personally think that's a little weak and generally I like not to worry about a problem until it is exactly that. At the time I made the turn bet the information I had suggested something in the range of 1010-JJ (and I think that's fair). On this board and against this player I'm confident I can get his stack in between the turn and river. I think it's reasonable to take that line even if we get trapped for our stack every now and then.

I guess the point of my thread/question is to ask who, having taken a line for the reasons I've given, then changes the plan when so deep in light of the new information provided on the river.

[Jeff76]

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I guess the point of my thread/question is to ask who, having taken a line for the reasons I've given, then changes the plan when so deep in light of the new information provided on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]I completely understand the question you're asking, but I think you made a mistake on the turn and that's why you have this new information to consider on the river. Like threads from newbies who minraise AA pf with full stacks and then want advice later in the hand when they are completely screwed, I think you have to look at the real issue, which is the turn bet. Note- I'm NOT saying this hand is the same AT ALL as minraising AA with full stacks- I'm just saying that your difficult decision on the river points toward a mistake made earlier in the hand. If there is such a mistake (and I think there is), then THAT should be the thing to worry about.

The point I'm trying to make (and I'm trying to be helpful, not argumentative) is that I think you are overvaluing the value you can gain from JJ/TT. A reasonably competent player is not going to c/r one of those hands on this board and then give up a full stack when called "putting you on AK" or a draw. If you managed to float him with AK after a c/r, then you've earned the pot.

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you seem to suggest that I shouldn't bet the turn in case he has a hand at the upper part of his range and goes for a check-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]You've got me wrong. I'm not saying he likely has you beat so you should be afraid to bet. Without knowing the results, on the turn I'd say his range is mostly hands you beat along with a few monsters that have you crushed. However, if you bet, then you fold out most of the hands you beat, definitely get called by the hands that have you crushed, and rarely get any value from hands that you beat that you wouldn't have gotten on the river anyway. And while I agree with you that JJ/TT will sometimes stack off on the turn (the whole, "Ok, I'm comitted I guess" response), I don't think it will happen often enough to make up for the times that YOU overcommit against his mosters or fold out JJ/TT who doesn't want to face a river bet (And there fore you lose value).

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I certainly hadn't planned to deal with a c/r when I made the bet.

[/ QUOTE ]I think this also indicates a problem with the turn bet. We should always be anticipating moves our opponents are going to make and have plans to deal with them.

You might not consider the c/r specifically, but you should at least consider what hands villain will commit with, whether as a c/r or by c/c the river. I think his range for doing that is far narrower than you think. I DO realize that sometimes people will get committed without realizing they are and stack off light, but this will not happen all the time, even with JJ/TT. I think his all in range is strong enough that you'll be taking the worst of it.

But seriously, back to your very original question. I usually pay off here, even with the new information. And the reason I do it is to punish myself so the next time I'll make sure and think through my turn decision a little better. And when I don't pay off, I go back through the hand and try and figure out where I might have overcommited myself.

[Acevader]

Thanks Jeff, interesting reading and I've enjoyed your contribution. Pretty pissed right now so will re-read tomorrow when I can absorb your most recent post a little better.

I can certainly accept your point regarding checking through the turn with an intention to call a river bet as perhaps being optimal. I still don't regard betting the turn as a specific mistake. Perhaps just different styles/approaches. Ironically my turn AF is usually lower than most other solid winners so it's strange that I can't fully subscribe to checking through. Ho-hum.

[Jeff76]

FWIW, when discussing stuff like this I tend to overstate my points, so don't take me calling a turn bet "a mistake" as more than it is. I'm simply looking at the merits of the plays and saying which I think is better and why.

But I've been wrong before. I'd like to hear the thoughts of some other posters on this subject. I actually think the turn is an interesting spot because of how well I think your range is defined to villain, but I may be overestimating this so hearing other opinions would be useful.