A question about the longrun.

[Cryptorchild]

I guess a little bit of a whine too.

I understand that your "luck" balances out over thousands upon thousands of trials. If someone calls getting 6:1 on a gutshot and makes it 5 times in a row, they are going to lose money after enough times. But what about trials that are extremely rare?

I had 99 and got 220 big blinds in on a A95 rainbow flop against 95, and he caught running 5-5. I've played somewhere along the lines of 400-600k hands of poker and I have never gotten 220bb in against someone drawing at running quads. So how does that balance out in the longrun?

Maybe I should move up to where they respect my raises.

[runout_mick]

[ QUOTE ]
I've played somewhere along the lines of 400-600k hands of poker and I have never gotten 220bb in against someone drawing at running quads. So how does that balance out in the longrun?

[/ QUOTE ]

Guess you were due.

Gross misapplication of concepts ftw.

[Cryptorchild]

If I'm missapplying concepts, then how about explaining what I'm missing. That is why I am posting because there's apparently something I'm not getting.

[Gullanian]

Basically you got it a bit rung, there is no luck bank, luck debt, anything like that. If he beat you 10 times in a row when he was behind, he got lucky. The odds dont change.

[fozzy71]

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm missapplying concepts, then how about explaining what I'm missing. That is why I am posting because there's apparently something I'm not getting.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Jamsym]

You see, the thing is that you need to know when you're being lucky, and know when you're being unlucky. The poster who said that poker = luck management is right. You can't change your luck. But you can MANAGE it by identifying when you are lucky and when you are unlucky.

Say, for example, you have AJ suited. Someone has already raised. Well usually you'd go all-in with that hand of course. But if you're a good player you must be capable of making a big laydown at the right times. And sometimes you might have a bad feeling about what's coming on the flop. So you'd decide to fold. Do you see why?

Or maybe I'm in a tourney with a short stack on the button. I find a rag Ace and would like to steal the blinds. Sometimes I will run into a big hand in the SB or BB, other times I won't and will successfully steal the blinds. So when I'm in a tourney I have to ask myself if I'm lucky at the moment before I push all-in to steal the blinds. If you have that lucky feeling then you are much more likely to be successful in stealing the blinds than if you don't.

The other way of thinking of it is just as effective. Instead of thinking 'am I lucky?', you think about whether the players in the blinds are lucky at the moment. If you feel they are unlucky then you should be more inclined to attack their blinds because they are therefore less likely to wake up with a calling hand. However, be careful if you think they've been unlucky for a fairly long period of time. In this case, you should probably throw away all but your best hands. This is because THEIR LUCK MAY BE ABOUT TO CHANGE. Always try to make sure you avoid getting involved with someone who has been very unlucky for a CONSISTENTLY LONG TIME, because they are much more likely to suddenly find some good luck, almost from out of nowhere. So, the trick is to identify and target players who have just started their bad luck, and avoid players who are coming to the end of their bad luck or (even worse) have just started their good luck.

We've all had the experience of watching the roulette come in red, red, red, red. We really believe it's going to come in Black this time, we get a feeling. And more often than not, we're right. We should trust our feelings and back Black. There is also statistical and mathematical reasons for this phenomenon, which I will now explain...

The law of averages says that a 'fair' roulette wheel will come in Red EXACTLY THE SAME AMOUNT OF TIME as it comes in Black. We're talking in the long run. So, and this is the point that most people don't realise, if the roulette wheel has come in Red 5 times in a row then it REALLY IS MORE LIKELY TO COME IN BLACK NEXT TIME.

The reason it's more likely to come in Black is as follows. Assume that before the sequence of reds the roulette wheel had made millions of spins and had produced roughly equal numbers of reds and blacks as you'd expect. Now, suddenly it has 5 reds in a row. This means that the averages are now scewed in favour of red. Since we know that this cannot happen in the long run, it is inevitable that there will have to be a few more Blacks in the next few spins in order to 'balance out' the recent run of reds. That is the only way that the wheel can return to the average. And scientifically and mathematically it MUST RETURN TO THIS AVERAGE. The law of averages states this. So, you see, it is more likely that Black will come in next spin. It has to be. Scientifically.

Just remember, though - this does not mean it is guaranteed that Black is coming in next spin. Nothing is guaranteed, that's why you need a bankroll. However, although it's not guaranteed to be Black next spin, it is MORE LIKELY to be Black. And this means you have an edge. Successful gambling is all about putting your money in play when you have an edge. If you always make +EV bets then you will win in the long run. That is fact. I'll leave it to other to elaborate.

It is exactly the same principle when playing poker. If someone has just had a bad run of cards and been outdrawn lots and lots, HE IS NOW STATISTICALLY MORE LIKELY TO WIN THE NEXT HAND. This is because luck evens out in the long run in poker. Everyone has good cards and bad cards in equal measure. Everyone wins and loses in equal measure. So, if someone has just had a bad run then the averages have become unnaturally scewed for a short time. But the law of averages is unmovable and this means that soon that player MUST have a good run of cards in order to bring the averages back into line. That is not superstition. It is science. And mathematics.

This is what an earlier poster meant when he correctly stated that poker = luck management. You cannot change your luck. But you can MANAGE it. If you're on a bad run of cards then play carefully and don't gamble too much until you feel that your luck is about to change. And pay attention to what run your opponents are on, and whether their luck seems about to change. Identifying these situations takes practice of course. But keep practicing and you become better than your opponents at it.

What you are doing is not changing your luck, or your opponents' luck. But you are managing it. Identifying when you will be lucky and your opponents will be unlucky is the secret to winning at poker. Please don't tell this to anyone else though, because only winning players know this secret.

[thac]

Jesus Christ I hope that's copy/pasted.

[Gullanian]

Me to

[TheJokerIsWild]

[ QUOTE ]
You see, the thing is that you need to know when you're being lucky, and know when you're being unlucky. The poster who said that poker = luck management is right. You can't change your luck. But you can MANAGE it by identifying when you are lucky and when you are unlucky.

Say, for example, you have AJ suited. Someone has already raised. Well usually you'd go all-in with that hand of course. But if you're a good player you must be capable of making a big laydown at the right times. And sometimes you might have a bad feeling about what's coming on the flop. So you'd decide to fold. Do you see why?

Or maybe I'm in a tourney with a short stack on the button. I find a rag Ace and would like to steal the blinds. Sometimes I will run into a big hand in the SB or BB, other times I won't and will successfully steal the blinds. So when I'm in a tourney I have to ask myself if I'm lucky at the moment before I push all-in to steal the blinds. If you have that lucky feeling then you are much more likely to be successful in stealing the blinds than if you don't.

The other way of thinking of it is just as effective. Instead of thinking 'am I lucky?', you think about whether the players in the blinds are lucky at the moment. If you feel they are unlucky then you should be more inclined to attack their blinds because they are therefore less likely to wake up with a calling hand. However, be careful if you think they've been unlucky for a fairly long period of time. In this case, you should probably throw away all but your best hands. This is because THEIR LUCK MAY BE ABOUT TO CHANGE. Always try to make sure you avoid getting involved with someone who has been very unlucky for a CONSISTENTLY LONG TIME, because they are much more likely to suddenly find some good luck, almost from out of nowhere. So, the trick is to identify and target players who have just started their bad luck, and avoid players who are coming to the end of their bad luck or (even worse) have just started their good luck.

We've all had the experience of watching the roulette come in red, red, red, red. We really believe it's going to come in Black this time, we get a feeling. And more often than not, we're right. We should trust our feelings and back Black. There is also statistical and mathematical reasons for this phenomenon, which I will now explain...

The law of averages says that a 'fair' roulette wheel will come in Red EXACTLY THE SAME AMOUNT OF TIME as it comes in Black. We're talking in the long run. So, and this is the point that most people don't realise, if the roulette wheel has come in Red 5 times in a row then it REALLY IS MORE LIKELY TO COME IN BLACK NEXT TIME.

The reason it's more likely to come in Black is as follows. Assume that before the sequence of reds the roulette wheel had made millions of spins and had produced roughly equal numbers of reds and blacks as you'd expect. Now, suddenly it has 5 reds in a row. This means that the averages are now scewed in favour of red. Since we know that this cannot happen in the long run, it is inevitable that there will have to be a few more Blacks in the next few spins in order to 'balance out' the recent run of reds. That is the only way that the wheel can return to the average. And scientifically and mathematically it MUST RETURN TO THIS AVERAGE. The law of averages states this. So, you see, it is more likely that Black will come in next spin. It has to be. Scientifically.

Just remember, though - this does not mean it is guaranteed that Black is coming in next spin. Nothing is guaranteed, that's why you need a bankroll. However, although it's not guaranteed to be Black next spin, it is MORE LIKELY to be Black. And this means you have an edge. Successful gambling is all about putting your money in play when you have an edge. If you always make +EV bets then you will win in the long run. That is fact. I'll leave it to other to elaborate.

It is exactly the same principle when playing poker. If someone has just had a bad run of cards and been outdrawn lots and lots, HE IS NOW STATISTICALLY MORE LIKELY TO WIN THE NEXT HAND. This is because luck evens out in the long run in poker. Everyone has good cards and bad cards in equal measure. Everyone wins and loses in equal measure. So, if someone has just had a bad run then the averages have become unnaturally scewed for a short time. But the law of averages is unmovable and this means that soon that player MUST have a good run of cards in order to bring the averages back into line. That is not superstition. It is science. And mathematics.

This is what an earlier poster meant when he correctly stated that poker = luck management. You cannot change your luck. But you can MANAGE it. If you're on a bad run of cards then play carefully and don't gamble too much until you feel that your luck is about to change. And pay attention to what run your opponents are on, and whether their luck seems about to change. Identifying these situations takes practice of course. But keep practicing and you become better than your opponents at it.

What you are doing is not changing your luck, or your opponents' luck. But you are managing it. Identifying when you will be lucky and your opponents will be unlucky is the secret to winning at poker. Please don't tell this to anyone else though, because only winning players know this secret.

[/ QUOTE ]


wow, longest post ever in the history of BBV with this kind of thread.

tl dr

[Jamsym]

[ QUOTE ]
Jesus Christ I hope that's copy/pasted.

[/ QUOTE ]

obv lol