Have I Discovered Another Mathematical Football Coaching Error?

[SuperUberBob]

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Psychology isn't the reason that coaches refuse to gamble in some spots. It's because their jobs are on the line if they do something drastic and blow it. Unlike professional gamblers, the rest of the world and team ownership are results-oriented. So, if a coach were to do something retarded and still win, nobody would give a damn. But doing something that is mathematically correct won't change the fact that an unconventional decision cost your team the playoffs.

You can do something that is mathematically correct in the long run. But in the end, what matters is the here and now rather than other games in the future.

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I agree with your second paragraph. But I wonder how many coaches purposely do what they know to be the wrong play for your reason. Few, if any, I'd venture to say. At least not. without discussing it with the owner first.

And what is that last paragraph supposed to mean?

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The thing is that coaches don't run the same exact scenario time and time again in a live game to ensure that something might be mathematically correct. They have one chance to succeed when it comes to a very critical, game-changing decision and they don't want to screw it up.

For example, going for two instead of kicking the extra point might be mathematically correct for some teams. But if you're down by one point in the Super Bowl with no time left in the 4th quarter, you go for two and miss, then you still lost the game because you didn't take a safer route, kick the XP, tie the game and play for OT.

How many coaches will have the opportunity to replay that in real-time to show ownership that it was mathematically correct to go for two? Coaches are lucky to get to one Super Bowl, let alone multiple tries.

Ownership doesn't want reasons no matter how good they are. Even if they understood the reasons and agreed with it, it doesn't matter. They want results. Good results keep the fans in their seats and the money flowing in. There is no owner that will say to a head coach, "Gee, you made great decisions the whole time. So even though the team went 2-14 this season, lost significant fan support, spent 100M+ on currently underachieving players, I'm going to give you a contract extension." I cannot see that going over too well with anybody.

[lastchance]

What happens if you're Jon Gruden and win due to going for it?