#1
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Is this a spewy push with rivered set? 100NL
Villian is 48/4/.4, in other words, a total LAPPY fish. eah, yeah, I know that calling his mini-raise on the flop is spewy, but my question is about my river shove. I think that I get two pair hands to call here often enough to merit the shove (rather than a smaller raise, say to $50 or so). I'm not worried about the straight, and I'm slightly worried about a set.
Thoughts on my river move? Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (9 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) SB ($132.10) BB ($100) UTG ($123.50) UTG+1 ($110.10) MP1 ($118.15) MP2 ($100) MP3 ($70.55) Hero ($100) Button ($171.20) Preflop: Hero is CO with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls $2, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>. Flop: ($5.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to $16</font>, Hero calls $6. Turn: ($35.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> UTG+1 checks, Hero checks. River: ($35.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $15</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $84 (All-In)</font> ts- |
#2
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Re: Is this a spewy push with rivered set? 100NL
the straight looks exactly like what he would have, min raise on the flop that if you three ball has to fold, check s when makes the nuts then value bets the river which you oblige by shoving all in
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#3
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Re: Is this a spewy push with rivered set? 100NL
I like just shoving vs huge donks. If they are gonna pay you they pretty much are just gonna pay you
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#4
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Re: Is this a spewy push with rivered set? 100NL
[ QUOTE ]
the straight looks exactly like what he would have, min raise on the flop that if you three ball has to fold, check s when makes the nuts then value bets the river which you oblige by shoving all in [/ QUOTE ] I agree that villian's turn and river play could be the nut straight, but I have trouble thinking that a LAP at the $100 tables plays J/10 this way pre-flop and on the flop from UTG. You think he mini-raises it pre-flop with J/10, then min bets the OESD on the flop OOP, and then min-raises it (3-bet) on the flop again when I raise it behind him? I just don't think a guy with an aggression factor of 0.4 is PFRing UTG and then 3-betting here with just OESD on the flop. Maybe he is, but what are the odds that it's J/10 here vs something like A/K, A/Q, or K/Q? ts- |
#5
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Re: Is this a spewy push with rivered set? 100NL
Anything but shoving on this river is just bad IMO.
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#6
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Re: Is this a spewy push with rivered set? 100NL
[ QUOTE ]
Anything but shoving on this river is just bad IMO. [/ QUOTE ] Yah. I mean, sure, he has JT once in a while, but he also has all sorts of crap here, too. The question is if he calls the shove with the crap, and I think that often he will. |
#7
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Re: Is this a spewy push with rivered set? 100NL
[ QUOTE ]
Anything but shoving on this river is just bad IMO. [/ QUOTE ] seriously. getting to the river was bad, but not shoving is badder (idc if its not a word) |
#8
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Re: Is this a spewy push with rivered set? 100NL
Shove river, I doubt villain has a straight here. I'm guessing two pair or a set. That said, is a 4% PFR raising KQ UTG+1? I feel like he has QQ/KK/AA here most of the time, or maybe AK.
Edit: Plus, his AF is .4! Am I relying on stats too heavily in this (assuming this is over a decent sample size)? |
#9
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Re: Is this a spewy push with rivered set? 100NL
looks like he had kq or aa, he'd never play jt like this if the stats are accurate. i'd never see a turn in this position but if you hit your 8 shoving seems standard.
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