#1
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Repeating losing hand - AQ
100$ MTT, 27 players left avarage stack 4500, blinds 200-100
this is a problem hand / situation I get into many times at this stage of the tournament. PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (7 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font> <font color="#C00000">AQ-Hero (t2750)</font> MP1 (t2065) MP2 (t3845) CO (t2235) Button (t14108) SB (t1560) <font color="#C00000">BB (t1915)</font> Preflop: AQ-Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#CC3333">AQ-Hero raises to t2750</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, BB calls t1715 (All-In). Flop: (t4765) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font> Turn: (t4765) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font> River: (t4765) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font> Final Pot: t3930 {He called with 99} Another hand in same stage of the tournament: Im in the BB (200) all fold to the button who raises 400 more, SB folds, I have AQo. My stack is 3600 his is 2700. Whats the right play here ? assuming i just played 10 hands there so no info on the BTN player. |
#2
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Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ
ATG,
1st hand your raise is too big. You have enough chips to raise 3x, see a flop and still have enough to play on. On Stars the antes are so small you are really risking a lot for a little...you will probably get looked up only by hands that beat you since the all in screams AK-AQ. Hand 2 my default is to move in. You have a hand with good showdown value against someone who's range includes mediocre to terrible hands, especially since his stack is low. |
#3
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Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ
I hate the utg shove here. Ur not getting called by anything but JJ+ and AK. Ur risking 2700 to win 300... doesnt seem right to me. I'd make it 500-600 here and just see what happens. If i get reraised I'd probably fold. If someone flatcalls im shoving a lot of flops if i have a pair or two overs or draws etc. It really sucks playing this hand OOP, and I dont see any harm in folding it UTG either as ur just getting urself in trouble most of the time.
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#4
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Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ
You have way too many chis to be shoving, especially with no antes to steal. I would lead towards folding here because your just asking to get reraised, in which case you would have to fold.
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#5
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Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ
agreed, nothing wrong with a fold here UTG but raise to 500 has to be better than 14BB shove?
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#6
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Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ
I'm fairly sure open shoving is a lot better than folding here, especially if people are calling as tight as JJ+,AK. I'm doing the calculations as I write this but that's only 3% of hands which means 83% of the time you take down the blinds and the other 17% of the time you're 29% to win 3050, assuming you're called by someone who covers you.
.83 * 300 = 249 .17 (.29 * 3050 - .71 * 2750) = -181.56 So you win 67 chips on average by open shoving if the calling range of JJ+,AK is correct. The numbers are slightly different if you're called by bb/sb (it's more +ev if called by someone who doesn't cover you outside of the blinds) but it's never -ev against that calling range. Against a more reasonable calling range of 88+, AQ I'm fairly sure it's still +ev but not by so much and it's quite possible that it's actually completely unexploitable to open shove here. That doesn't mean that open shoving is necessarily the most +ev play here though, and I think I would normally raise/call in a standard online tourney. If it was live then raise/fold might be an option but online I think it's pretty bad. Unless the table was really tight I would say raise/call > shove >> raise/fold > fold. Edit to add hand 2 is a very standard shove against 99.9% of players. |
#7
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Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ
yeah hand 2 standard
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#8
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Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ
[ QUOTE ]
I'm fairly sure open shoving is a lot better than folding here, especially if people are calling as tight as JJ+,AK. I'm doing the calculations as I write this but that's only 3% of hands which means 83% of the time you take down the blinds and the other 17% of the time you're 29% to win 3050, assuming you're called by someone who covers you. .83 * 300 = 249 .17 (.29 * 3050 - .71 * 2750) = -181.56 So you win 67 chips on average by open shoving if the calling range of JJ+,AK is correct. The numbers are slightly different if you're called by bb/sb (it's more +ev if called by someone who doesn't cover you outside of the blinds) but it's never -ev against that calling range. Against a more reasonable calling range of 88+, AQ I'm fairly sure it's still +ev but not by so much and it's quite possible that it's actually completely unexploitable to open shove here. That doesn't mean that open shoving is necessarily the most +ev play here though, and I think I would normally raise/call in a standard online tourney. If it was live then raise/fold might be an option but online I think it's pretty bad. Unless the table was really tight I would say raise/call > shove >> raise/fold > fold. Edit to add hand 2 is a very standard shove against 99.9% of players. [/ QUOTE ] Whats ur cut off range for shoving here then? |
#9
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Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ
I agree with Willd. Moreover, if you add pairs down to 88 to the calling range, I guess you're adding hands like AJ too ? So all in all, pushing seems significantly better than folding no matter the context. I also agree that some standard raise would be best.
And for hand 2, all-in of course, feets on the table [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
#10
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Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ
can we have a regular "ask annette" deal here weekly or something?
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