#71
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Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
Hmm, I live in Venice, about 15 miles south of Sarasota.
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#72
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Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, I live in Venice, about 15 miles south of Sarasota. [/ QUOTE ] I grew up in Punta Gorda and went to USF for school so I kinda ended up here for living |
#73
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Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
Strife--
Can I assume you still think you're >90% to succeed? --Nate |
#74
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Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
I think 50% to succeed sounds about correct for one session of all of them. I actually decided not to play all of them today because I'm going to the brick and mortar casino shortly.. however I am 4/9 at a final table right now and 10/19 in the other one i'm playing.
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#75
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Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
well? done? update?
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#76
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Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
[ QUOTE ]
I think 50% to succeed sounds about correct for one session of all of them. [/ QUOTE ] Considering that you've won exactly 1 out of the 208 4/180s you've played, a reasonable guess for the number you'd have to play to have a 50% chance of winning 1 is about 144. Quite a session. |
#77
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Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think 50% to succeed sounds about correct for one session of all of them. [/ QUOTE ] Considering that you've won exactly 1 out of the 208 4/180s you've played, a reasonable guess for the number you'd have to play to have a 50% chance of winning 1 is about 144. Quite a session. [/ QUOTE ] That can't be right at all IMO. If OP has a clue what he is doing, he ought to be 50% to win 1 in 90 or less 180s. Look, if the MTT was a lottery he would win 1 in 180 on average. So if he was playing based on pure luck alone he ought to be 50% to win 1 in 90. Because OP posts on 2+2 alone makes him a much bigger favorite than that to win one. I'd say he is at least 50% to win 1 in 60 and close to 100% (on average) to win 1 in 120. Sherman |
#78
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Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Considering that you've won exactly 1 out of the 208 4/180s you've played, a reasonable guess for the number you'd have to play to have a 50% chance of winning 1 is about 144. Quite a session. [/ QUOTE ] That can't be right at all IMO. If OP has a clue what he is doing, he ought to be 50% to win 1 in 90 or less 180s. Look, if the MTT was a lottery he would win 1 in 180 on average. So if he was playing based on pure luck alone he ought to be 50% to win 1 in 90. Because OP posts on 2+2 alone makes him a much bigger favorite than that to win one. I'd say he is at least 50% to win 1 in 60 and close to 100% (on average) to win 1 in 120. Sherman [/ QUOTE ] I was basing my calculation on his actual record in 4/180s (1 win in 208 attempts). I agree that it's entirely possible -- even likely -- that his actual chance of winning is better than 1/208. If his chance to win was 1/180, he would be 50% to win at least 1 if he played 125. *NOT* 90, as you suggested. |
#79
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Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
[ QUOTE ]
I'd say he is at least 50% to win 1 in 60 [/ QUOTE ] To be 50% to win 1 (or more) out of 60, you have to win 1.15% of the time. That's a little bit over 2 out of 180. |
#80
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Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
Forgive me, but this makes no sense to me.
The probabilities ought to be additive. That is, if his chance of winning a single 180-person MTT is 1/180, he chances of winning 1 of 2 180-person MTTs ought to be 2/180. And so forth. So his probability of winning 1 180 person tournament given 90 tournaments ought to be exactly 90/180 or 50%. Please explain how I am wrong. Sherman PS - FWIW, I know what you were doing by using his current data, I am just pointing out that unless he is a losing player (which he probably isn't) or is trying to lose, his probability of winning a single 180 tournament is surely better than 1 out of 200+. |
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