weird donk

[rzk]

[ QUOTE ]
fwiw i thought you were talkin about it the other way around. when i said 1% i meant i think you're good more often when you wait than when you instantly raise. i think most people see instant raises as strong and delayed raises as possibly weak, ie. "HMM LET ME SEE...... HM... OK I GUESS I RAISE LOL."

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree that people see instaraises as strong, that's why i want to instaraise this so i can fold to a 3bet more comfortably. but you think an instaraise will not reduce the chance that he'll 3-bet bluff by more than 1%?

btw, what's your line in this hand? call, r/c, or r/f?

[milesdyson]

i just call because i expect to hear from 5x earlier and i realize he can be bluffing here but raising doesn't gain anything in that case

[Oink]

I end up calling here for the reasons Miles mentioned. If the board wasnt double paired I'd raise.

When I raise I fold to a 3-bet without worrying about it. I use to call and win like never.

People grossly overestimate how much even retards bet/3-bet as a bluff on the river. I mean you see it. But its closer to 0.5% than the 8-10% or whatever you need to call here.

[rzk]

[ QUOTE ]
I end up calling here for the reasons Miles mentioned. If the board wasnt double paired I'd raise.

When I raise I fold to a 3-bet without worrying about it. I use to call and win like never.

People grossly overestimate how much even retards bet/3-bet as a bluff on the river. I mean you see it. But its closer to 0.5% than the 8-10% or whatever you need to call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think the board double-pairing shouldn't make us less inclined to raise. i really see the villain intending to just call down with some weakish pair, but now that he sees the board pairing he decides to donk knowing that (a) it's not easy for you to raise with a better hand since you will now be afraid of a full house (b) you will call with A high. i also see the villain making a stupid donk with A high here knowing that he's now chopping with any other A high.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I end up calling here for the reasons Miles mentioned. If the board wasnt double paired I'd raise.

When I raise I fold to a 3-bet without worrying about it. I use to call and win like never.

People grossly overestimate how much even retards bet/3-bet as a bluff on the river. I mean you see it. But its closer to 0.5% than the 8-10% or whatever you need to call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think the board double-pairing shouldn't make us less inclined to raise. i really see the villain intending to just call down with some weakish pair, but now that he sees the board pairing he decides to donk knowing that (a) it's not easy for you to raise with a better hand since you will now be afraid of a full house (b) you will call with A high. i also see the villain making a stupid donk with A high here knowing that he's now chopping with any other A high.

[/ QUOTE ]


the flop is 522, turn 4, river 4.

what pair did said villian c/c twice with that he now decides to bet, 77, TT, 33?

He can have A4, and 34.

You havea good hand, but its not good enough to raise here.

[rzk]

he could easily play 33-TT this way, with TT being somewhat less likely. basically, i more or less agree with vma's range, excluding JJ-QQ and adding a bunch of 5x hands like 65s, 75s.

[Oink]

I think all of the hands in vma's range are possible but I also think he has 43 like 20 times for each time he has KQ.

If you are not prepared to fold to a 3-bet I honestly cant see how this is a raise.

If you think you can fold to a raise I like it a lot more and I think its fairly close

[thrasher789]

Unless he's tilting I cant' imagine him playing A3 or A4 UTG obv which are the only logical hands that beat you here right? I still just call though, may lose value in the long run though, not sure.

[milesdyson]

he is bb. if it were utg i would raise so fast lol.

[sweetjazz]

vma, are you advocating raise/call or raise/fold on the river? There seems to be disagreement among the raisers as to what to do if 3bet.

While I agree with the general principle that you don't always have to have a plan to deal with getting 3bet to justify a raise (in some cases, it's so obviously +EV to raise regardless of what you do when 3bet), but in this spot we're going to be 3bet fairly frequently because 4x hands are a large part of his range (even if not everyone agrees just how large).

I don't think it's an "easy easy" call but I don't really think it's that close either. It's one of those calls where you're probably good a fair amount of the time, but not 50% of the time when your raise is called/reraised (and that doesn't even get into what your plan is for dealing with a 3bet). FWIW, I don't play on Absolute, so it's possible the games play differently there.

Anyway, I agree it's close enough that a slightly different read would lead to raise. But the primary reason I would raise is because I thought my opponent was going to play 5x like that frequently, since that is the hand I want to get calls from. The passive description makes it possible that he would check/call flop and turn, but I would need to know that he makes thin river value bets (not awful river bluffs) before I would expect raising to be the best play. So IF he showed up with, says 7s 5s, after I called this time, THEN I would adjust my read and look for places to raise for value on the river (like this hand) against him.