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Old 11-30-2007, 12:51 AM
bottomset bottomset is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: middleset ftw
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Default Re: 600 NL, preflop spot with QQ

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IMO, if SABR starts laying down Queens in these spots, he's gonna get OWNED big time.

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This is what I was thinking too. If I opened from UTG and he 3-bet from MP, I'm probably folding.

But I raised from LP, CO called, and he squeezed from the button. With my wide opening range there is no way I can fold here.

The only question is whether to call or to just shove now.

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I did some math

if his calling range is QQ+ AK if you shove, he needs to have 15combos of hands he folds to a shove for it to be breakeven

15combos roughly works out to 1/3rd of the time he's squeezing he's folding

if his calling range is JJ+ AK, pushing is breakeven-ish if he's only squeezing with that range and never air, and +EV if there is any air in there

I think with your image you'll be +EV shoving
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