600 NL, preflop spot with QQ

[SABR42]

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IMO, if SABR starts laying down Queens in these spots, he's gonna get OWNED big time.

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This is what I was thinking too. If I opened from UTG and he 3-bet from MP, I'm probably folding.

But I raised from LP, CO called, and he squeezed from the button. With my wide opening range there is no way I can fold here.

The only question is whether to call or to just shove now.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
IMO, if SABR starts laying down Queens in these spots, he's gonna get OWNED big time.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is what I was thinking too. If I opened from UTG and he 3-bet from MP, I'm probably folding.

But I raised from LP, CO called, and he squeezed from the button. With my wide opening range there is no way I can fold here.

The only question is whether to call or to just shove now.

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I did some math

if his calling range is QQ+ AK if you shove, he needs to have 15combos of hands he folds to a shove for it to be breakeven

15combos roughly works out to 1/3rd of the time he's squeezing he's folding

if his calling range is JJ+ AK, pushing is breakeven-ish if he's only squeezing with that range and never air, and +EV if there is any air in there

I think with your image you'll be +EV shoving

[Renton]

i wonder if calling and c/f'ing most flops is best here.

i.e., calling the raise, c/f Kxx Axx 100% of the time obv, and c/f lowcard flops as well whenever we feel we're beat (i.e. when he pots it or timing tells etc.} We'll gross a decent amount of $$ back due to flopping sets, but also the flop will go check check a lot (this happens a lot more than we think), at which point we'll basically always win the pot unless the turn is an ace or a king.

I think his range is probably not much wider than QQ+ AK, but since he can have AK, that means we're going to win the pot a fair amount. I doubt he's going to have the stones to cbet AK (or whatever other air that he has) that often when he misses, since our call looks so much like TT/JJ/QQ.