need a plan vs a 2+2er

[Paul Thomson]

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I like just bet/folding. I'm afraid a thinking player will realise we're not check/calling with a hand we're willing to felt. We'll have decent fe and if we're called we have some outs.

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Sure bet-folds disguises the strength of our hand and Villain will likely put us on nuts or air, but I'm not sure if in a good way.

Since we 3-bet him once before in the same position, Villain might think that we're 3-betting light and raise us with AK assuming that he has 10 outs. If that's ever the case, then bet-folding is terrible.

I doubt we're ever folding out a better hand. So there's no FE in betting.

If the Villain does have TT or QQ which are reasonable hands to assume since he didn't 4-bet. Then I hate getting knocked off our sweet draw to the inside straight...when he inevitably pushes over our bet.

Do u think the Villain ever bets AK if checked to which he would have folded if we bet?

As for not being willing to felt on a turn blank card. Should we be willing to? Thats what I alluded to in my first post. It's not a sweet option but we might have to.

this sucks.

and i don't think that it's one of those situation where all the options are about equal EV so it really doesn't matter. I think one choice is probably significantly EV over others...i just can't figure out where the crux is.......