Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do

[TimovieMan]

@ fretelöo:

What else do you propose we do in this situation? Villain knows what we’re about, and must assume after the flop our hand is likely QQ+ (and even more likely KK+). He’s in the same situation as we are, but he’s in position and thus has the advantage.

If we check, and he bets, is he bluffing or is he value betting? We don’t know, so we must call down. –EV
If we check, and he checks behind, is he slowplaying, or does he not have a spade? Coinflip river decision. Likely –EV.
If we bet, and he raises, we can clearly fold our hands. What’s he gonna raise on this board? Only the A. We can fold. -1 BB (if he musters up the nerve to bluff-raise us, kudos to him)
If we bet and he calls, does he have a spade that’s not the nuts, or is he unsure about us having a spade? Again we don’t know. Coinflip river decision. Likely –EV.

Whatever we do, it’s not going to be good on this board…

Hence the requested math, obviously. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]