***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

[Vyse]

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I also wonder how Young gets anointed as a complete risky player with all this downside when Garza is clearly the riskier player? What if Garza is the next Brazelton or Hamilton?

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Dude, what are you talking about? Once a pitcher demonstrates an ability to rape AA and AAA he's not NEARLY as risky as before. Garza is great in the stat that most accurately reflects future viability for a pitcher: HR/9. And he has a strong K rate. Those are arguably the two most important stats for a prospect, and Garza is well above average in both.

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The point is, he's more likely to not be valuable than Young is, if for no other reason than because he's a pitcher.

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This is just incredibly wrong, you're really overrating the whole TINSTAAPP crap.

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On top of that, I forgot all about Niemann! Damn the Rays are deep in young pitching.

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No, they were deep on high-upside, very risky young pitching. Like Jackson and Niemann. They were very low on reltively sure bets for young pitchers. Like Shields and Garza. They have so much hitting, they already had to trade some of their OFs, but rather than selling low low low on Baldelli and Gomes or even Crawford, they sold high on an overrated player.

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It seems like I'm usually the one defending the spenders! Is this the time for the Rays? Hell no! They just improved their 2008 projected wins from 76 to 78. It's not worth giving up future value for that, and they did, even though it's "riskier".

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They gained a lot of future value, lol.


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I think this is where we have the disconnect. Who is going to start in RF and at DH for the Rays in 2008 and 2009?

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Elijah Dukes is 23 and has way better plate discipline and just as much power, and higher upside than Young. Seriously, if you want to talk about tools and only tools and so conveniently ignore how horrible Young's performance has been for a so-called top prospect (uh how many top prospects have such horrible lines in the minors and majors over the last couple of years?), Dukes >>>> Young obv. Desmond Jennings is one of the best CF prospects in the game (ranked higher than Ellsbury on Goldstein's midseason list) and would be on track for a debut in 09 if he keeps it up.

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Baldelli? Don't forget a ton of his value was tied up in the fact that he was a good fielding speedy CF. If he can't stay healthy in RF, how good of a DH will he be? Dukes? Well, I like the upside, but do you really want to count on this guy?

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They only need one of three to build value, then trades all day long or just be fine with a league average RF.

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which the Rays are, even if it's for 2009.

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So why in the world are you acting like it's a problem at ALL, like the Rays need a RF in the next year? They don't. And even if every option fails, they have a ton of trade options because they have so many good young players. Wow, put Upton in RF and Jennings in CF. So hard.

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You know what this reminds me of? It reminds me of when Alfonso Soriano was traded for Brad Wilkerson. SE was like "Huge win for the Rangers," and I said, "Have you lost your mind? Soriano has tools baby!" Then SE said, "Yeah, but even if Soriano is a little better than Wilkerson, the Rangers got Sledge too," and I said, "huh?"

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Dude, if this was your logic for how the Nats won, LMFAO. That doesn't make you right; you were right for the wrong reason[s]. The Rangers destroyed that trade in any objective measurement at the time, no need to play revisionist history.

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Question. What translates into major league superstardom? Is it tools?

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Usually great production at a young age. Young's clock is ticking.

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Is it guys that hold their own at age 21 in MLB?

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Usually that's a decent indicator, but not when said player has shown dramatic regression in the process. He's usually not becoming a star.

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Is it minor league track record?

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Sustained minor league track record, yes.

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Because Delmon has all of this in his favor.

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Maybe two years ago. Not now.

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Overrated compared to who? If anything, Young is underrated and Garza is overrated.

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Young's trade value is obv Garza. He is viewed by many sources as one of the best prospects in baseball. He is not. Hence, overrated.

[rwperu34]

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Dude, what are you talking about? Once a pitcher demonstrates an ability to rape AA and AAA he's not NEARLY as risky as before. Garza is great in the stat that most accurately reflects future viability for a pitcher: HR/9. And he has a strong K rate. Those are arguably the two most important stats for a prospect, and Garza is well above average in both.

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No [censored] sherlock. Garza is one of the top pitching prospects out there. If Delmon Young were a pitcher, I'd take Garza, but he's not.

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This is just incredibly wrong, you're really overrating the whole TINSTAAPP crap.


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You are overrating the likelyhood that Garza stays healthy AND produces.

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No, they were deep on high-upside, very risky young pitching. Like Jackson and Niemann. They were very low on reltively sure bets for young pitchers. Like Shields and Garza. They have so much hitting, they already had to trade some of their OFs, but rather than selling low low low on Baldelli and Gomes or even Crawford, they sold high on an overrated player.


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Rather than sell low on Baldelli or Gomes sell low on the biggest upside of the bunch? That doesn't make sense, now does it. A much better move would have been to wait until somebody was OVERVALUED and sold high. In that case, even if it was Young, at least it would be worth while.

They can afford to wait on the "sure thing" pitching. Virtually no matter what, they'd be able to get a talent comparable to Garza for Delmon next offseason.


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Elijah Dukes is 23 and has way better plate discipline and just as much power, and higher upside than Young. Seriously, if you want to talk about tools and only tools and so conveniently ignore how horrible Young's performance has been for a so-called top prospect (uh how many top prospects have such horrible lines in the minors and majors over the last couple of years?), Dukes >>>> Young obv. Desmond Jennings is one of the best CF prospects in the game (ranked higher than Ellsbury on Goldstein's midseason list) and would be on track for a debut in 09 if he keeps it up.


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Are you out of your mind? Dukes was worse in the bigs at age 23 than Delmon was at age 21 while Dukes was slightly better in AAA the year before despite being two years older. If you want to argue Dukes' ceiling is as high as Young, I still won't listen. To say his performance warrants a better projection is lunacy!

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So why in the world are you acting like it's a problem at ALL, like the Rays need a RF in the next year? They don't. And even if every option fails, they have a ton of trade options because they have so many good young players. Wow, put Upton in RF and Jennings in CF. So hard.


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Same can be said for the starting pitcher, only starting pitcher has less long term value.

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Dude, if this was your logic for how the Nats won, LMFAO. That doesn't make you right; you were right for the wrong reason[s]. The Rangers destroyed that trade in any objective measurement at the time, no need to play revisionist history.


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I wonder if you were here back then. No, the Rangers did not destroy that trade. They took the player with the lower ceiling, lower floor, and thus lower EV.

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Usually great production at a young age. Young's clock is ticking.


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It can tick for two more years before we even need to begin to worry.

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Sustained minor league track record, yes.

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Young's track record isn't sustained? I mean Jesus, he's got a .318/.362/.518 line with an HR every 24 AB and managable K numbers despite not spending a day over the age of 20 in the minors. It's not like he didn't have sucess in AA...at age 19. Shoot, even if you add up his AAA numbers, they are steller for a guy who did it in part of his age 19 and part of his age 20 season.

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Maybe two years ago. Not now

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What does he not have in his favor now? Wow, he's got a .738 OPS and 94 OPS+ through his first 812 PA and his AGE 21 SEASON. Delmon's performance speaks of a star in the making regardless of his scouting reports. I guess his scouting reports must suck now for him to not be one of the top prospects in the game.

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He is viewed by many sources as one of the best prospects in baseball. He is not. Hence, overrated.

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To call him not one of the best prospects in the game is, well, BIZARRE!

[rwperu34]

I'm going to leave this discussion with this. There are a few things I'd be willing to bet on.

1. Delmon Young will outproduce his PECOTA/ZIPS projection. I don't even know what his PECOTA OPS will be, but I'll take the over.

2. Delmon Young will have more value, determined by WARP or some kind of advanced run metric, than Matt Garza from 2009-2011, the Rays "window".

3. To a lesser extent, Delmon Young will have more value in 2008 than Matt Garza.

4. Alfonso Soriano has more talent in his in-grown pinky toe nail than Brad Wilkerson has in his whole enitre body.

[Vyse]

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1. Delmon Young will outproduce his PECOTA/ZIPS projection. I don't even know what his PECOTA OPS will be, but I'll take the over.

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WOW YOU'RE GOING OUT ON A BIG LIMB THERE. He can outproduce his projection but that still wouldn't make him a success as you're defining his potential.

[Vyse]

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If you want to argue Dukes' ceiling is as high as Young, I still won't listen.

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You're an open-minded one. I still don't know why I take you half-seriously.

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To say his performance warrants a better projection is lunacy!

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Stop making up things, no one said any such thing.

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Same can be said for the starting pitcher

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Except it can't

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I wonder if you were here back then. No, the Rangers did not destroy that trade. They took the player with the lower ceiling, lower floor, and thus lower EV.

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The BP articles sum up how badly the Rangers raped that trade. lol @ you thinking only extreme outcomes matter. I can get the lower ceiling AND lower floor player and still rape you in a trade simply because my player's average outcom is much higher and that's what is more likely.

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It can tick for two more years before we even need to begin to worry.

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You apparently don't know the meaning of the word top prospect.

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Young's track record isn't sustained?

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Two mediocre years in a row = no.

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What does he not have in his favor now?

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"Two mediocre years in a row..."

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Delmon's performance speaks of a star in the making regardless of his scouting reports.

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lol

No plate discipline = missing a tool = um you're not good.

Maybe he gets it. Maybe he doesn't. Unlikely, though; even if he "gets" it, Young is never going to have a .400 OBP. There are a million potential corner OFs with .300/.350/.500 lines.