pair + draw vs spewtard

[poker12]

.

[fslexcduck]

you guys must suck at math or something... this is such an easy check/shove... you do realize we're not in bad shape against overpairs, right? if we do get all in with 40% equity, so what? we pick up 2125 instead of risking losing that already sizable pot vs what could very very very easily be AK (and if we assume he plays AK this way with the same frequency as pairs, there are 20 combos of AK and 24 of big pairs, so it's really damned close)

[syndr0me]

[ QUOTE ]
you guys must suck at math or something ... this is such an easy check/shove... you do realize we're not in bad shape against overpairs, right? if we do get all in with 40% equity, so what? we pick up 2125 instead of risking losing that already sizable pot vs what could very very very easily be AK (and if we assume he plays AK this way with the same frequency as pairs, there are 20 combos of AK and 24 of big pairs, so it's really damned close)

[/ QUOTE ]

4 x 4 = 20?

[TheWorstPlayer]

she was including AK suited

[syndr0me]

[ QUOTE ]
she was including AK suited

[/ QUOTE ]

So the one of the same suit counts twice?

[HEK]

you see i didnt realize the math was so close here. Against a different villian I'd check and get it in. Fsu & gang are right: aiaiaiaiaiaiaiaiai.

[innerpeace]

[ QUOTE ]
you see i didnt realize the math was so close here. Against a different villian I'd check and get it in. Fsu & gang are right: aiaiaiaiaiaiaiaiai.

[/ QUOTE ]

i just read the other replies in this post. the math is very close, but as AK becomes less likely to KK+, shoving goes from being +ev to -ev. so, i don't know that this is an instashove.

[nutsflopper]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
she was including AK suited

[/ QUOTE ]

So the one of the same suit counts twice?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think syndrome's right. There's 12 AKo and 4 AKs

[fslexcduck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
she was including AK suited

[/ QUOTE ]

So the one of the same suit counts twice?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think syndrome's right. There's 12 AKo and 4 AKs

[/ QUOTE ]

fair enough but it was an off the cuff comment to make the point that people thinking we are not significantly ahead of his range on this flop (which we are) are probably just vastly underestimating how many more AK's exist or probably regularly don't even consider combinations at all.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
she was including AK suited

[/ QUOTE ]

So the one of the same suit counts twice?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think syndrome's right. There's 12 AKo and 4 AKs

[/ QUOTE ]
dont forget the spades