Rudy is toast?

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No AC'ers interested in McCain.

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FYP

But of course AC'ers a) aren't interested in anyone but RP, and b) aren't going to vote anyway.

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No, not ACers. Nobody. The only reason he has any support at all anymore is because he still gets media attention. His support has been constantly dropping throughout the year and this isn't going to cause it to pick up.

BTW, nice ad hominem. You're brilliant.

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Talking about the perspective that you bring to this issue isn't an ad hominem.

As to the question at hand, there are 2 camps in the repub party:

1) religious conservatives
2) not religious conservatives

The contest for the nomination is waged between those 2 camps, despite there being multiple candidates in each camp. So if the strongest candidate in #2 falls, the strongest/only candidate left will benefit. McCain has done poorly precisely because of Guiliani's strength, not because of more conservative candidates.

Now the above is simplistic and ignores Thompson. But Thompson is straddling the fence between the 2 camps so it's hard to say.