in over my head

[ALL1N]

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assuming button opens 50% of hands and the x is a 2, we have to get owned postflop really bad in order to make folding the flop correct.

That said, this sounds like a spot where it actually is pretty close--the value of "x" matters. Without solving the whole damn problem, I'd guess that in my normal games (I'm a mediocre 15/30ish online player) it would be a bad fold if x<7 or so.

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I agree.