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#1
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Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
Further Cin is not a junk team and there must be validity to my point as I read the thread after I posted and now I'm seeing other posts indicating other sites offering far better prices.
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#2
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Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
Sorry, I thought you meant the teams they were playing had homefield. They're favorites against NY and most likely will be favorites against Baltimore.
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#3
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Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
By fav you are obv ref to spreads < 3 pts because if Baltimore is getting 3 points against Miami, I am betting a large sum of money on the Ravens.
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#4
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Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
And the first time Miami played the Jets when they had a RB and a QB, they lost by a field goal (they were trailing by 11 at end of 3rd)...Baltimore has a sick rush defense (just about all they have) and Miami loves to keep the ball out of Beck's hands. Baltimores offense is def improving since they got rid of the biggest jerkoff QB is history (I realize this is debatable). And then theres Buffalo which has similar strengths to Baltimore except Buffalo isnt playing for a draft pick so I doubt pride allows them to lose a home game to Miami in the final stretch.
In sum -700 is ridiculous, -300-400 is my sweet spot, -500 prob true odds. |
#5
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Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
Well if we agree that Miami is AT LEAST 50% to beat the Ravens and Jets, then that's 25% right there. That means they have to go 0-3 at the Bills and Pats, and home against the Bengals. For fun, we'll say the Pats game is an automatic loss. So they have to lose to both the Bills and Bengals >50% of the time for the -700 to be breakeven. Let's also say for the sake of argument that they are as likely to win either game. (This is a complete stretch since Cinci isn't that much better than Buffalo, but whatever). So they need to lose each game 70% of the time for your argument to work. Frankly, I don't think they lose either of these games 70% of the time.
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#6
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Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
Whoops, I was using the -700 for my argument, the numbers for the -500 that you claim is true odds are even more in my favor. They now have to lose the games against the Bills and Bengals 81% of the time each. There's no way they are even close to >81% to lose at Buffalo and home against the Bengals.
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#7
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Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
Its funny b/c on its face the math seems very logical, but if you were to run this calculation at the beginning of the season for the first 11 games (having perfect info on the team and players but not the results) I assume you would calculate a 1/1000 chance of being where we are today...are you saying that were witnessing such a unlikely occurance?
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#8
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Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
[ QUOTE ]
Its funny b/c on its face the math seems very logical, but if you were to run this calculation at the beginning of the season for the first 11 games (having perfect info on the team and players but not the results) I assume you would calculate a 1/1000 chance of being where we are today...are you saying that were witnessing such a unlikely occurance? [/ QUOTE ] Yes. That's exactly what I'm saying. How is it a team as atrocious as SF (much much worse than Miami), has 3 wins, and the Dolphins none? Luck. FO did an interesting article on Miami, and how unlucky they've been this season. 6 games by a FG, and they've had the 5th hardest schedule so far this season. This team is certainly worse without Brown, Green or Chambers, but they're not THAT bad. here's the article. http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3124222 |
#9
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Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
your own article invalidates your argument. Since 1943, 18 teams have started out 0-11. assume 25 teams per year over 60 = 1500 seasons....that equates to a 1.2% chance NOT a 0.1% chance, about 12x difference...obv there are some flaws with this but not enough to justify a 1/1000 chance of Miami being where it is.
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