Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!

[Billy Bibbit]

MicroBob,

No one here is claiming that they would be a good NFL coach. I'm pretty sure we all realize that these coaches know a lot of things that we don't know. What we're debating is why conventional wisdom tells them to do so many retarded things with respect to clock management and 4th down decisions.

[MicroBob]

Yes, I get that.


I'm responding to vhawk's statement:
"somehow in the heat of the moment make an absolutely retarded decision that is incredibly simple and very obvious and makes a HUGE difference in wins, especially compared to all the other plays and decisions they make?"


I guess my overall point is that what is easy for some of us to understand is, for whatever reason, very difficult for them to understand.
And what is incredibly difficult for us to understand is insanely and stupidly easy for them to understand.


Now to your question of why specifically conventional wisdom tells them to make the exact WRONG decision on some of these situations: I'm not exactly sure. But I don't think it comes from fear of the fans or reporters. I think it more comes from just being plain-old ignorant on this specific kind of math or whatever.

I truly believe that some coaches could "get it" if you sat them down and explained it to them. And if they DID "get it" then they would go for it in a heartbeat and wouldn't give a crap what the fans or reporters would whine about afterwards.
Some of these guys actually do have some kind of an intellectualness about them even if their math abilities are kind of sucky.

My hope and belief is that some of this 'playing the percentages' stuff will eventually find it's way to a few coaches sooner or later.
I would not have really understood this EV type argument before learning poker a bit more. If somebody as stupid as me can get it then surely some of the players, who may eventually become coaches, could get it also.

Some of these players do go to Duke or Stanford or Harvard or MIT. I mean, they all have teams, right?
I assume that some of them are actually pretty smart.

[mutigers5591]

ya fwiw herm did get slammed for not going for the tie, i live in kc..mostly garbage about not believing in your kicker and stuff...even though dave ranier sucks

[MicroBob]

there was a thread awhile back by a 2+2'er who is better known as being an assistant coach at James Madison even though he's wheelchair confined. He linked to an article about himself on espn.com
I think it was over a year ago.
Since he plays poker and should have some understanding of EV and the math, etc I would be curious what a guy like him thinks of this.

I really believe that a pseudo-saber type movement on these kind of football decisions will appear at some point.
It's just too obvious to too many of us idiots for it not to.

But then you get bone-heads like Joe Morgan seriously believing that a guy who is in an 0-for-40 slump is now more likely to get a base-hit because "he's due" and then I absolutely know I could play blackjack with a coach or player and they would be all concerned about the last guy's decision because he doesn't want him to "take the dealer's bust-card" so sometimes I'm not so sure that actual reason and logic will prevail in all this sillyness.


I've personally known a couple of D1 head-coaches. Not especially well but I had some familiarity with their personalities and how they think.
I can imagine sitting one of them down and actually having a slim chance that he might get what I'm saying if I explained the 4th and goal type situation or the 'go for 2' when you are down by 14 and score a TD that we've discussed before.

The other one I'm pretty sure would just look at me funny and not get it at all although I still think it's possible even for him.

Unfortunately, both of these coaches that I'm thinking of are now dead so it seems likely that I'm not going to be the one to get to try.

[DesertCat]

Teams make two point conversions slightly over 50% of the time, yet somehow the Cards were 75% on this play?

[MicroBob]

2 point conversion is from the 2 and a half yard-line.
I believe the ball was inside the 1 on this play.

I don't know if they were 75%. But they definitely had to be better than a 50% 2-pt conversion rate because of just having the QB or RB dive into the pile for the score which really isn't a realistic option from 2+ yds out.

[mutigers5591]

[ QUOTE ]
2 point conversion is from the 2 and a half yard-line.
I believe the ball was inside the 1 on this play.

I don't know if they were 75%. But they definitely had to be better than a 50% 2-pt conversion rate because of just having the QB or RB dive into the pile for the score which really isn't a realistic option from 2+ yds out.

[/ QUOTE ]


honestly i bet it is better then 75% even

[MicroBob]

if it was practically an inch from the goal-line or whatever than I think it's definitely higher.
If it's just on the one or barely inside the one then close to 75% feels about right to me, maybe a tad higher.
But all this hunch and "feels" stuff is what screws up all the fans and coaches on this stuff in the first place!!

[Zutroy]

FO's o-line stats have the Cards with a 71% Power Success (7th in the NFL). Power Success is defined as "Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks." I wanted to believe kicking the FG wasn't a bad decision but it's a tough position to justify.

[Rick Diesel]

[ QUOTE ]
2 point conversion is from the 2 and a half yard-line.
I believe the ball was inside the 1 on this play.

I don't know if they were 75%. But they definitely had to be better than a 50% 2-pt conversion rate because of just having the QB or RB dive into the pile for the score which really isn't a realistic option from 2+ yds out.

[/ QUOTE ]

The conversion happens from the 2 yard line, not the 2.5.