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View Poll Results: Which QB? | |||
Matt Hasselbeck (Seneca Wallace) at Broncos | 4 | 33.33% | |
Chad Pennington at Packers | 8 | 66.67% | |
Voters: 12. You may not vote on this poll |
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Thread Tools | Display Modes |
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#1
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Re: MORE POLLS
Yes but I doubt he would cap even AT given stats. The crux of my argument was I can't see this guy not sticking in a raise on flop or turn given two flush draws on the turn and top pair with no face cards out. Plus Joe is a statistical LAG if the guy has any stats.
-DeathDonkey |
#2
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Re: MORE POLLS
[ QUOTE ]
Yes but I doubt he would cap even AT given stats. The crux of my argument was I can't see this guy not sticking in a raise on flop or turn given two flush draws on the turn and top pair with no face cards out. Plus Joe is a statistical LAG if the guy has any stats. -DeathDonkey [/ QUOTE ] Here's my problem with the argument of everybody in the 3b camp: If you think he always raises top pair on flop or turn, why do you think he would play 99 so differently? If JJ and Jts are virtually the same hand (and I disagree, but whatever), then how is 99 any different? And 77 picked up a gutshot on the turn, so I'd expect him to raise that hand there pretty damn often. So I honestly don't really get it--I'd 3b QQ sometimes too, but that would be against a 50/40 type who might raise/call KQ. Against a normal tag I don't see how this isn't just a cross-your-fingers call. I think you win a fair amount here only cuz I think he has a retarded blluff-raise a fair amount here. |
#3
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Re: MORE POLLS
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Yes but I doubt he would cap even AT given stats. The crux of my argument was I can't see this guy not sticking in a raise on flop or turn given two flush draws on the turn and top pair with no face cards out. Plus Joe is a statistical LAG if the guy has any stats. -DeathDonkey [/ QUOTE ] Here's my problem with the argument of everybody in the 3b camp: If you think he always raises top pair on flop or turn, why do you think he would play 99 so differently? If JJ and Jts are virtually the same hand (and I disagree, but whatever), then how is 99 any different? And 77 picked up a gutshot on the turn, so I'd expect him to raise that hand there pretty damn often. So I honestly don't really get it--I'd 3b QQ sometimes too, but that would be against a 50/40 type who might raise/call KQ. Against a normal tag I don't see how this isn't just a cross-your-fingers call. I think you win a fair amount here only cuz I think he has a retarded blluff-raise a fair amount here. [/ QUOTE ] Well sure, that's true, I'd raise for value with 22 on this flop if I was in there somehow preflop but I doubt the villain in question would. So I guess the question is how does someone with stats like those perceive the value of his hand changing between the turn and river. It is my contention if he has a smaller pair than a ten (A6, 77, whatever) he is going to see the ten as a good card, and what was previously a tenuous situation for him ("I could beat by a ten or an overpair here") has now become somewhat better ("now a ten is not very likely") so he perceives his hand value has increased. Nobody here can say they generally are not happy to see the top card pair when they were worried about their opponent having top pair. It's certainly a welcome sight most times. -DeathDonkey |
#4
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Re: MORE POLLS
I agree with Miles and his posts, and I think too that 3betting is very bad.
It's even worse if we look at his river AF < 1. I mean, I highly doubt that this opponent can make thin river value raises, and even if it's a thin value raise this time, he has to call your 3bet yet to have any value. This is a ten a high percentage of the time. |
#5
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Re: MORE POLLS
Nothing about villains line makes any sense which means I will never fold, but I would rather miss 1bb of value when I am ahead than lose 2bb extra when I am behind.
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#6
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Re: MORE POLLS
[ QUOTE ]
...if we look at his river AF < 1. I mean, I highly doubt that this opponent can make thin river value raises... [/ QUOTE ] damn right. If you guys make a decision based on these stats take into account that a nitty guy like this dont make thin value bets on the river. he is either way ahead or trying to pull a desperate bluff against a regular who he thinks might fold. on the other hand: why is nobody talking about a flush draw? I saw many passive players like villain who raise their (rather lowish) flush on the river. people do this because: - they are passive and afraidof higher flush and much heat (on the turn) -> therefor raising (any) river makes them get another bet in without much fear of more heat (I votet for call in vote 1 but I dont know about vote 2. I guess I would use the 3 bet line but I wont say it's the better line) |
#7
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Re: MORE POLLS
btw:
WTSD: 43.5% W$SD: 55.25% is this for real? looks to me like somebody is on an insane heater (at stars low limit nobody has stats like this!!!) |
#8
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Re: MORE POLLS
Check-calling this river should be getting more love. I'd say most every hand that calls a river bet will bet the river when you check. So, you lose a small amount of value if he wusses out with a hand like 88. But I think you gain that back by not paying 2 bets with Tx, which is strongly in his range. Throw in the chance that he bluffs with one of the 2 possible broken flush draws and check-calling could be the best play. And if check-calling is the right play then checkraising and folding to a 3-bet might be even better.
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