#1
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Mid pair in BB $12/180 turbo FT
Stars $12/180 Final Table. 5 left. Payouts: 594, 396, 235, 158, 128$.
About ten hands into the FT. Villain has a negative ROI. Previously he check called A high flop from BB, against a button raiser, and shoved the river A. He stole the blinds twice. Big Blind is t4000 (5 handed) SB (t36086) Hero (t56628) UTG (t78248) MP (t73434) Button (t25604) Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to t12000</font>,(Pot is 20000) <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero checks? |
#2
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Re: Mid pair in BB $12/180 turbo FT
all you can eat!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
nice work geting to FT |
#3
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Re: Mid pair in BB $12/180 turbo FT
I thought so too...
Now, if you have a read that he will rarely fold (15%) ICM shows that you need to have ~58% equity against his range for a push to be break even. Given those circumstances, we still push, or? |
#4
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Re: Mid pair in BB $12/180 turbo FT
I dont think he is folding here if you shove.
I dont wanna be getting into flips here unless I am the one open shoving, not re-raising someone all in. I probably lay this down and just open shove later on while in position. |
#5
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Re: Mid pair in BB $12/180 turbo FT
I think you probably do have 58% against a fairly wide range. You note that in < 10 hands he's stolen the blinds twice already and played a hand, so he's been reasonably active. You also look like you're just barely deep enough for some post-flop play. Perhaps this is the right spot for a stop-and-go.
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#6
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Re: Mid pair in BB $12/180 turbo FT
He most certainly does not have 58% equity over his opponents range here.
For him to have about 58% equity his opponents range is: {22+,A2s+,K2s+,A2o+,K2o+ } Which I dont think is realistic here. Taking into consideration the blinds, the chip stacks, where the button is, the likely hood of him folding and the likely hood of it being a flip when he calls, I dont think I can ever shove here. |
#7
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Re: Mid pair in BB $12/180 turbo FT
[ QUOTE ]
He stole the blinds twice. [/ QUOTE ] You answered it right there. He is most likely stealing, and winning this pot could add a lot to your stack. If he's pretty passive I stop n go, loose aggro I shove without thinking about it. |
#8
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Re: Mid pair in BB $12/180 turbo FT
This is an easy 3-bet. I'd make it 48K, or shove if u think he'll be more likely to put u on a resteal.
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#9
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Re: Mid pair in BB $12/180 turbo FT
If i push, he needs to pay 44k to win a pot of 116k, pot odds give him .37% equity for a call to be breakeven.
So, hardly will he fold. I, on the other hand need .58% equity for a showdown to be EV(neutral), as a result of chipEV diverging substantialy from $EV cause of the steep payout change. I hate passing up edges, but the more i compute the less i seem to have it here. |
#10
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Re: Mid pair in BB $12/180 turbo FT
[ QUOTE ] I dont think he is folding here if you shove. [/ QUOTE ] Usually true [ QUOTE ] I dont wanna be getting into flips here unless I am the one open shoving, not re-raising someone all in. [/ QUOTE ] What non premium hand if any do you shove here? [ QUOTE ] I probably lay this down and just open shove later on while in position. [/ QUOTE ] We have 13BBs here. Do you lay it down with 7BB? How about 18BB ? |
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