#1
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$120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out
Stack sizes are approximate. Villain seems semi-donkish, but somewhat observant. Probably around 25/10 for the game thus far.
Right before hands were dealt, BB takes a call on his cell and leaves, and is folded out. It then folds to Villain on button. How much do you increase the probability of him being on a steal with BB gone? Blinds 300/600 75 UTG 1700 BTN 9000 SB 4300 BB 5000 (sitting out) Preflop (t1200) Hero is in SB with AKo. UTG folds, BTN raises to 2000. There is a shorty, and I don't think I have any FE. From SNGWiz it looks like a shove, if you assume BTN will call and input his bet as a shove. Is it wrong to think BTN is doing this with ATC? He wasn't a maniac, but there were a lot of dead chips. Thoughts? |
#2
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Re: $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out
Can't really assume he's smart enough to be on atc here, still this looks like a clear push. You aren't that far ahead of shorty, after all.
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#3
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Re: $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out
I'm pushing this. Your hand is too strong to fold, especially with the blinds so high.
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#4
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Re: $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out
To those saying push, please show me what i'm not considering:
If you fold you will have 24.93% EQ If you call/win you will have 36.1% EQ So you have to win this push 69%+ to be better than folding if you have no FE. AKo is only 65% vs Random so are we getting enough of that call/win EQ to make this +EV? (I know this is different from my original analysis of the hand, beer, but I think the stacks were slightly different and my brain fluctuates day-to-day) |
#5
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Re: $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out
this is a shove anyway but especially with the bb sitting out. The only reason you wouldnt move if you were playing to get into money which you shouldnt be anyways.
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#6
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Re: $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out
I really like the call here, with the bb sitting out also to me says he will push here with decent holding i think you have his Ax or Kx crushed though. Can you pm results please mate.
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#7
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Re: $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out
This is a really tough situation. If you think SB will fold like the worst 10-20% of his range, this is a push pf.
If not, then this is a nice spot for a stop n' go... |
#8
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Re: $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out
[ QUOTE ]
Can't really assume he's smart enough to be on atc here [/ QUOTE ] True. But as his range gets smaller, shoving gets less profitable. [ QUOTE ] still this looks like a clear push. You aren't that far ahead of shorty, after all. [/ QUOTE ] It 'feels' like I am basically calling an all-in with A high and 7BBs left. Is this the wrong way to look at it? I don't know if I win the flip enough to make it profitable. |
#9
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Re: $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out
[ QUOTE ]
To those saying push, please show me what i'm not considering: If you fold you will have 24.93% EQ If you call/win you will have 36.1% EQ So you have to win this push 69%+ to be better than folding if you have no FE. AKo is only 65% vs Random so are we getting enough of that call/win EQ to make this +EV? (I know this is different from my original analysis of the hand, beer, but I think the stacks were slightly different and my brain fluctuates day-to-day) [/ QUOTE ] Your math sounds right to me. And AK only wins enough against weaker aces. I think it is a fold now. At the time, I thought I would see a lot of weaker aces but that isn't a reasonable assumption. |
#10
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Re: $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out
[ QUOTE ]
This is a really tough situation. If you think SB will fold like the worst 10-20% of his range, this is a push pf. If not, then this is a nice spot for a stop n' go... [/ QUOTE ] I might not have made it clear that I am SB... |
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