HU 25/50 really weird spot deep

[pete fabrizio]

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I disagree with almost everything pete wrote, that he can expect you to have AA more often than the nut flush based on your flop action. I don't think you should always bet/3bet the flop with AA here, and I certainly don't like it if you don't tend to play the nut flush equally fast. Also, there are way more combos of Kcxc than of AAxx, and an aggressive player is opening most of them on the button. Also, AA is more likely to take a free card on the turn.

I think it's a clear call. You are priced in or very close if he always has a flush, so if he ever has less it becomes a must call.

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Upon further review, Gordo was getting a better price than I thought, so I definitely agree that you're priced in to call, since aba only has to have junk or a lower set 5% of the time or so to make it profitable.

The card combinations are very close, and by my rough math, post-flop play being equal, gordo is more likely to have AAxx if he raises his Kcxcxx hands any less than ~85% of the time.

As for the subjective stuff, I don't know, it still just feels to me like aba was waiting for a safe turn to shove his smaller flush, expecting to be ahead. And yes, given the action, I expect aba to think gordo is more likely to be semi-bluffing top set than to be fast-playing the nuts, even though that shouldn't be the case if gordo is playing game-theoretically perfect. But I've never played aba so what do I know.

edit: absolutely not trying to brag, and I could still be way off base about the hand, but I'd just like to note that I didn't see gordo's results before posting this.