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View Poll Results: Should the state feed prisioners in jail? | |||
No, they can make it with private charity | 0 | 0% | |
yes, Im a jackbooted thug | 10 | 100.00% | |
Voters: 10. You may not vote on this poll |
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Thread Tools | Display Modes |
#281
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Re: Play a hand with me (NLTRN)
Hand 46
Blinds are now 50/100. (SB)Villain 2570 (BB)Hero 430 Villain posts 50, Hero posts 100. Hero has J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Villain raises to 2570 (all-in). Hero calls. Board: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Villain has K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Villain wins. |
#282
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Re: Play a hand with me (NLTRN)
Here is a list of all the hands dealt in the tournament, as per request.
Hand 1: Hero 7c5c Villain Qs3d Hand 2: Hero 3c3d Villain QsTc Board Qh8c4d Hand 3: Hero Td6c Villain 9s6h Hand 4: Hero 5s5h Villain 8s4h Hand 5: Hero AsTc Villain Kd9d Board AhKc6cKh3s Hand 6: Hero 4c5s Villain Qh9h Hand 7: Hero Qc9c Villain 3s5s Board 8sTsKd Hand 8: Hero Js5c Villain Kh7d Board Qc8d4d Hand 9: Hero 7s3c Villain 3h2s Hand 10: Hero As7d Villain 9s5d Hand 11: Hero Qc6c Villain Ad8h Board 6d5cTd Hand 12: Hero 9c2c Villain Kd5h Board 7d3h7h Hand 13: Hero 9d2c Villain Ts9h Hand 14: Hero 5h4s Villain 9h7d Hand 15: Hero KhQh Villain 7h2d Hand 16: Hero 9s5h Villain Js3c Hand 17: Hero AsQs Villain Ks5d Hand 18: Hero Qc2s Villain 8h6c Hand 19: Hero Qd3s Villain Js3h Hand 20: Hero 8c5d Villain Ah3h Hand 21: Hero Ah4h Villain Kd6s Hand 22: Hero 5s6s Villain Qd5c Board 7d7c9d Hand 23: Hero 8s6h Villain 7s2d Hand 24: Hero 8c6s Villain 9c8h Board Ah3d7s Hand 25: Hero Jd6d Villain 8d6s Hand 26: Hero 9c6s Villain QcTh Hand 27: Hero 7d6c Villain 5d5s Board 3c4hJsJc Hand 28: Hero 8d2s Villain Kc9c Hand 29: Hero AcKd Villain 9d5d Board Ts5cKs Hand 30: Hero Kc3c Villain Jd2c Hand 31: Hero Ks7h Villain 8c8d Hand 32: Hero 4s2c Villain 6h4h Hand 33: Hero 8h5d Villain Jd5c Hand 34: Hero Jc5h Villain Ks9s Hand 35: Hero 8h2c Villain AhTs Hand 36: Hero 9h2d Villain Ts5d Hand 37: Hero 9c5h Villain Qd5d Hand 38: Hero Kc6h Villain 4s3h Hand 39: Hero Qd8h Villain 6s4h Hand 40: Hero Jd8h Villain Ks4s Hand 41: Hero JsTc Villain Qs8s Board 4s5d7d Hand 42: Hero 8d5c Villain AsJd Hand 43: Hero 9c9d Villain 6h3h Hand 44: Hero 9c5c Villain Ac4d Hand 45: Hero 7h4d Villain QdQh Hand 46: Hero Js8d Villain Kh3h Board 6cAsKd9sQd This doesn't necessarily mean the end of the thread. Specifically, I'm very interested in hand #2, where (at the time of the voting) the vote decisions were very split between all four options (bet, c/f, c/c, c/r). I'm sure there are a couple other hands that may be worth discussing after the fact as well. |
#283
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Re: Play a hand with me (NLTRN)
Great thread, Dromar.
I, like the vast majority of this thread most likely, would love to see another one of these.' FWIW, personally, I don't think there was a flaw with the way you structured the thread. I personally think it would be better to vote- then discuss, rather than discuss- then vote. Voting first allows people to give their unbiased opinion on each hand rather than being swayed by the comments of a regular poster. Also, if people vote first and are wrong, I think it is better for them in the Long Run anyways because they can learn from their mistakes by continuing to read the discussion that follows the poll. I wouldn't be opposed to changing the structure of the thread, just saying I think it's perfect the way it is. chrismystero |
#284
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Re: Play a hand with me (NLTRN)
Nice post Dromar.
I agree that is not an ATC call here. In the 74o if you do the calculations with +75 instead of +50 you'll get -11EV (and assuming he'll call with 50% you get -32EV), and I think that combined with the fact that the next hand blinds are going up, this hand can be pushed, altought I agree it's a marginal play. Obviously villain had queens so he wasn't going anywhere, but that doesn't matter. I give it to you that I'm convinced a fold is a good play there. |
#285
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Re: Play a hand with me (NLTRN)
These 2 last hands are bugging me...
If you think that I'm still discussing it because I can't give up my push move, you're right. My point is that on a HU match winner takes all so doesn't matter the absolute EV of each play but the increase on your chance to win the tournament. You guys have a lot more knowledge of HU SnG's so please explain to me why I'm wrong in that case or at all by saying what I did. |
#286
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Re: Play a hand with me (NLTRN)
[ QUOTE ]
(SB)Hero 455 (BB)Villain 2545 Hero posts 25, Villain posts 50. Hero has 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Hero? [/ QUOTE ] okay, so we're looking at pushing for 455 to win 50. Quick assumption: he calls top 40% and folds 60% (we can adjust this if we find the decision to be close or if we decide that he'll call much looser or tighter than this. Also, download pokerstove for help with this stuff if you don't have it.). Then 3 of 5 times we win 50 (+50), and 2 of 5 times we play a 910 chip pot with 74o. Our equity against top 40% with 74o is ~32%. Then we are entitled to 32% of the 910 chips when he calls. (.32)(910) = ~290. So our EV is 290 - 420 (what we'll have minus what we would have if we folded) = -140. Then our EV of pushing is (3/5)(+50) + (2/5)(-140) = -130. So we see that if he calls top 40% against our push, the amount we lose as a result of his calling greatly outweighs the amount we win from fold equity. As it turns out, for this push to be profitable, villain would have to fold medium off-suit aces and lower, and also fold 22-55 (found from pokerstove @ top 24%). This seems unlikely, so we're forced to fold. As for you "giving up the thread," that's too bad, but not all that relevant. See my next post. [/ QUOTE ] You have your EV calculations wrong . It should be 75*3/5 + 2/5*[480*1/3 - 430*2/3] ~ -5.6666 which is about -1/5th of the sb or 1/10th of the BB . If you were interested in how often villain needs to fold to make the push with 7-4 off-suit positive EV , then you would solve : EV(push) = 75*x + (1-x)*[480*1/3 - 430*2/3]>=0 After simplification of the algebra you should get 201.6666x >= 126.6666 x>= 62.8099173 % |
#287
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Re: Play a hand with me (NLTRN)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] (SB)Hero 455 (BB)Villain 2545 Hero posts 25, Villain posts 50. Hero has 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Hero? [/ QUOTE ] okay, so we're looking at pushing for 455 to win 50. Quick assumption: he calls top 40% and folds 60% (we can adjust this if we find the decision to be close or if we decide that he'll call much looser or tighter than this. Also, download pokerstove for help with this stuff if you don't have it.). Then 3 of 5 times we win 50 (+50), and 2 of 5 times we play a 910 chip pot with 74o. Our equity against top 40% with 74o is ~32%. Then we are entitled to 32% of the 910 chips when he calls. (.32)(910) = ~290. So our EV is 290 - 420 (what we'll have minus what we would have if we folded) = -140. Then our EV of pushing is (3/5)(+50) + (2/5)(-140) = -130. So we see that if he calls top 40% against our push, the amount we lose as a result of his calling greatly outweighs the amount we win from fold equity. As it turns out, for this push to be profitable, villain would have to fold medium off-suit aces and lower, and also fold 22-55 (found from pokerstove @ top 24%). This seems unlikely, so we're forced to fold. As for you "giving up the thread," that's too bad, but not all that relevant. See my next post. [/ QUOTE ] You have your EV calculations wrong . It should be 75*3/5 + 2/5*[480*1/3 - 480*2/3] ~ -5.6666 which is about -1/5th of the sb or 1/10th of the BB . If you were interested in how often villain needs to fold to make the push with 7-4 off-suit positive EV , then you would solve : EV(push) = 75*x + (1-x)*[480*1/3 - 430*2/3]>=0 After simplification of the algebra you should get 201.6666x >= 126.6666 x>= 62.8099173 % [/ QUOTE ] Why it's -480*2/3 on the first equation and -430*2/3 on the second? |
#288
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Re: Play a hand with me (NLTRN)
Just a typo , thx for pointing it out .
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#289
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Re: Play a hand with me (NLTRN)
Thanks for posting the hands Dromar. Kudos to the unknown villian - he played very well.
The one thing that surprised me was how well leading OOP worked out for him (see hands 7,27,29). I don't do this much, which probably is a mistake. He won with his meduim strength hands and didn't lose much with bottom pair. Also, I am def in favor of more of these threads. |
#290
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Re: Play a hand with me (NLTRN)
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for posting the hands Dromar. Kudos to the unknown villian - he played very well. The one thing that surprised me was how well leading OOP worked out for him (see hands 7,27,29). I don't do this much, which probably is a mistake. He won with his meduim strength hands and didn't lose much with bottom pair. [/ QUOTE ] I don't really like his preflop call in hand 7. I think he got lucky a bit in this match, and hand 7 is an example of that. I'm pretty sure that he wasn't really caring much at first, but then tried a bit harder on the end. [ QUOTE ] Also, I am def in favor of more of these threads. [/ QUOTE ] My friend says he's not interested in doing another one of these, unfortunately. He didn't really like all the e-mailing and the slow pace. And I don't know if I want to host another one of these, at least not for a while. Presumably anybody could set one up though. The toughest part is finding a villain, but a 2p2'er with enough discipline not to check the thread would work fine I'm sure. It's really not that difficult. Anybody wanna volunteer to be the next host or villain? |
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